Posted on 06/18/2004 6:38:33 PM PDT by wagglebee
NewsMax had the opportunity to ask a few questions of Monsoor Ijaz, Middle East Expert, Fox News contributor and member of the Crescent Group:
NM: Is there is a war of succession on in Saudi Arabia, and what is the danger to the oil industry/its workers?
Ijaz: There is a war of succession going on inside the ruling family, but that has very little to do with terrorist influences.
No Saudi with responsibility for the affairs of state at any level could rationally support the instigation of or support for terrorist acts that would benefit one side of the succession struggle over another.
The recent attacks against economic infrastructure (i.e., foreign workers who run vital oil installations) was designed as an attack against western interests, not the House of Saud.
The idea was to drive the perception of risk premium higher, and therefore oil prices higher, not to point out how lax kingdom security is or how lacksadaisical Saudi police forces are in combatting terrorist threats internally.
We know that already. Nothing new in revealing the internal failures of Saudi security.
The real concern about Saudi oil production has to be aimed at whether foreign oil companies are willing to let there citizens live permanently in harm's way.
My view is that one more attack of a significant nature against people instead of assets, and you have a debilitating mass exodus of foreign workers from the kingdom.
That would damage Saudi oil production more than any explosion of an oil refinery, loading terminal or series of oil field wellheads.
Interestingly, most people don't realize how deep the bench is in running those oil fields, and how many Saudi nationals are well-trained to pick up the slack if there was a large-scale exodus required or imposed on foreign workers.
NM: Is Saudi Arabia the world's second most secretive, repressed and contolled society?
Ijaz: Saudi Arabia has a unique culture and a people who feel tasked with a responsibility of promoting and preserving the original state of a great religion.
What we are witnessing today is the corruption of that responsibility by radicalized elements that I believe even the hardest line elements of the ruling family now realize have gone so far overboard that course corrections of a more meaningful nature are justified.
The real problem is that we in the West have (rightly) become so critical of the Saudis that we have impaired their ability to execute course corrections.
The more we bang on their heads for reform, the less the elements that want reform can respond because it appears they are pandering to U.S. interests (or worse, to the Judaic influences within U.S. society).
I think the Saudi leaders, Crown Prince Abdullah in particular, have gotten the message. They have to clean up their mess because it not only threatens them, but threatens long-term stability in their neighborhood by forcing western countries to look elsewhere for stability.
You will see a much different response from Saudi security institutions in the coming months and years as they are instructed to hold no punches in rooting out the cells and stopping resource allocation to al-Qaeda affiliates through religious institutions.
We have to give them the space to let this process take hold on its own - to do otherwise is to compromise our own security. And we have to live with the reality that democracy in our eyes will never be the democracy they practice over there.
But maybe our respect for their willingness to clean up their own mess will one day give way to a much greater degree of transparency and individual participation / emancipation in the state's affairs, and to the gradual elimination of the razon d'etre for radicalism.
I trust Ijaz and I hope he's right, because if I was Bush I would give the Saudi royal family about a week to get their act together.
I tell ya what...we mass two division right at their border and I betcha they'll get it together. They better figure it out quick because I dont see the American people tolerating too many more heads getting chopped off by a bunch of arab hillbillies.
Ijaz is both right and wrong. He is right that the Saudis will fight terrorism because it is in their interests. He is wrong that we should give them the 'space' to do it. They made this problem. We cannot, and should not, bear the costs of ongoing terrorism while we wait for them to get around to dealing with their demons. They need to address this so fast it happened yesterday.
And I seriously doubt Ijaz's comments about the depth of the Saudi bench. I have not worked in the oil industry, but I have seen their military. Calling them incompetent would be a complement. I really doubt they have anything like the ability to run their oil industry without westerners.
I don't know how I feel about Ijaz. Very smart guy, but I wonder if he other loyalties ?? Just wondering
Look, I no longer, not for some time actually, give a sh_t what MI or anyone else says about SA or any other muslim country on the face of this earth.
We need to break out the big guns and start wiping ragheads off the face of this planet. That is the only thing they understand and the only thing that will win this WAR!!!
Times up!!!!!!!!!!
It seems that the Saudis took less than 12 hours to kill the murderers of Paul Johnson. They should do better next time. Kill them first.
It is sad that no gov't was serious about killing terrorists until recently, but all gov'ts should be serious about it now. And we shouldn't be friendly with any who aren't.
That would damage Saudi oil production more than any explosion of an oil refinery, loading terminal or series of oil field wellheads.
This is an interesting aspect of the recent change in tactics (directly attacking westerners rather than suicide-bombing the entire population). Ijaz is correct here--not only SA, but the entire Middle East is dependent on the West for their very survival. A lot is made of the West's need for ME oil, which is true, but very little is said of the ME's need for Western technology, food, products, manpower, etc. I spent some time in the ME and it amazed at just how dependent they were on Westerners for everything, not just oil workers. If there's an exodus of foreign labor from the ME you'll see a massive economic hardship in that area as every aspect of life there would be affected.
I'm withy you: Peace through Strength.
I think you're right. Whatever became of the neutron bomb? Then we could have a real (one-sided) war for oil.
That's total BS. Abdullah blamed a recent terrorist attack on 'Zionists' not three days ago. He's a lying bastard.
I vote for a nuclear sub popping up in the Arabian Sea.
Expert: Saudis (say they) Will (try to) Clean Up Their Act (, again).
I think the Saudis will go to a kill-first strategy very shortly. They need a couple of Soprono-type Saudi's...to do some dirty work at night. Just kill 2 or 3 of these each night...and let the neighborhoods know that if you are nice and polite...you live...and if you spout alot of Muslim garbage and talk "killing"...then you die. Within six months, the neighborhoods get cleaned up...one way or another.
They are a treacherous lot aren't they;
The Institute for the Analysis of Global Security - -The Sino-Saudi Connection
"We need to break out the big guns and start wiping ragheads off the face of this planet. That is the only thing they understand and the only thing that will win this WAR!!!"
I agree. Let's win. The first step is to nuke Mecca and Medina. Hit them where it hurts. Show them that Allah is powerless in the face of US technology.
Please post a link. I assume you are referring to the statements by Prince Naef, not Abdullah.
Abdullah promised 2 days ago that there will be a surprise regarding this incident. Abdullah is beloved in SA because he pulls no favoritism toward the rich princes.
I believe he will kill almost all of the 700 al-quaeda detainees now in Saudi jails. Monday morning firing squad, shown on all the Arab TV networks.
That would be awfully impressive. Ideally he should have done that before the deadline today, and say "you wanted your comrades released? OK, here they are!" But hey, if Abdullah can make anything significant happen here, I'm happy to give him the chance. He does sound like an interesting character, and maybe just the man that Saudi Arabia needs.
We will soon enough see if Abdullah's rep is worth what the Saudis says it is. . . my take is from the workers inside his palaces - they love this guy.
This is very true. Maybe if the Saudis realize this is going to hit them in their wallets, they might be more inclined to do something about it. Of course, if there is widespread unemployment and social unrest in SA, it's quite possible it will hit them somewhere else, too.
They've had a long time to think about this, though, and they still don't seem to be taking it very seriously.
I have wondered about this. It's good to hear in case...
I used to like Ijaz too until I realized he NEVER gets it right. Not ever.
Crown Prince Abdullah is supposedly pro American..yet he talks like the deluded Souk merchants of Cairo and Gaza..who think 9-11 was a Zionist plot.
Prince Bandar..Ambassador to the U.S...over at Crawford blah blah..his Father Prince Sultan is jetting around trying to aquire nukes...openly desires a military/economic pact with the Chi Coms.
The signs of delusion and treachery are evident.
It look like from your link above it looks like SA and the Chinese already have been working on that for quite some time:
"But the biggest prize in the region is Saudi Arabia, the country that holds a quarter of global oil reserves, that is the world's largest exporter, and that is today China's number-one foreign supplier of crude oil.
"As far back as the mid-1980's, China began to engage in military commerce with Riyadh, selling it 36 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, building two missile bases south of the Saudi capital, and deploying Chinese security personnel to maintain them. Though the missiles were highly inaccurate, they endowed Saudi Arabia with a military potential its neighbors could not ignore. With a range of 1,800 miles, and capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, they could be used to strike any location between New Delhi and Tel Aviv.
"In the years since that early sale, Sino-Saudi relations have grown only closer, especially after the two countries established full diplomatic ties in 1990. As military cooperation has deepened, China has offered to sell the Saudis, among other things, modern, solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of up to 3,500 miles. A regular series of high-level visits by Chinese leaders culminated in President Jiang Zemin's pronouncement of a "strategic oil partnership" between the two countries in 1999."
1999 is an interesting date. Some time after Clinton sold our Military secrets to China.
Congress is said to have some low down on Chinese Flagged container ships and Chinese air delivery..bringing Iran NK Missiles and parts.
With so much U.S. Corporate sector desire for China....will Congress lay the lumber to them.....or just a wrist slap?
The terror thingy in the mid east is a positive for China...but then..if it spreads to the Caspian..and interfere's with their Caspian and Iranian oil shipments...they might not be grinning so much.
I imagine they see the Mid-east..the Muslims.... as a crap shoot.
Bejings headache.....how do you manage unpredictable....emotion driven Muslim dunderheads?
That's easy if push comes to shove.
What is China's Number one Export? CannonFodder.
Well, it hasn't been exported yet, but I imagine China would have no problem sending a million or 5 troops anywhere they think would be to their advantage.
And it would also help to even out the male-female ratio on the mainland...
I do think this projection is a concern down the road.
The Earths weather may be just in flux..maybe its just a cycle thingy....but then....how much would it really take to push regions into sequential drought.....with the socio/economic chaos to follow?
Chinas rural populace is in dire straights...the numbers of individuals presently which are left to sheer destitiution is high.
China would have to develop a welfare system...its not happeing now.
Aids outbreaks in the rural areas has occured.
Villages and towns..the populace selling whole blood to medical collection agencies.
Needle shortage and poor hygene..aids has devastated entire villages of thousands.
The Gov isolates them in quarentine..and lets them die.
Big coverup to conceal this..it has leaked out..watched this on a documentary recently.
Whats the numeric for Males 17-30 who will never marry..have a family?
A ticking bomb...unless you have absolute control over that...you must engineer the numbers down.
Burn a few Million off in a war..would be a solution.
Why terminate them prematurely.....when they can be cannon fodder as you say....to achive a desired result.
Could China sit out a nuclear war between Pakistan and India?
India has much economic potential
Europes penchant for Dictators/Emperors and Facism.
Clock is ticking.
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