News poll shows a leader in the race for second district seat [IN-02]

WNDU-TV ^ | 10/20/02 | N/A

[BlackRazor]

News poll shows a leader in the race for second district seat

A new poll shows one candidate taking the lead

Posted: 10/20/2002 05:57 pm

Indiana’s second district congressional race is being closely watched across the nation. Both parties have dedicated a significant amount of resources to this race in the hopes that the winner will sway the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

Now, an "Elkhart Truth", NewsCenter 16 poll shows republican Chris Chocola with a statistically significant lead, over democrat Jill Long Thompson. About 400 registered voters took part in the poll. The poll takers only took into account the opinions of those registered voters who said they were likely to vote this November. They came from all 12 counties that make up the new second district and they gave a statistically significant lead to Chris Chocola.

Poll shows Chocola in lead

A portion of the redrawn second district stretches as far south as Kokomo. While the congressional race has made headlines there, generally, republicans are not expected to make much headway when it comes to fielding votes.

Surprisingly, the poll actually shows republican Chris Chocola leading in Howard County by a 2:1 margin. In fact, the poll shows Chocola leading in 10 of the district's 12 counties. It shows the two candidates tied in Fulton County. The poll shows Chocola running behind in just one county. Although that county is the district's most populated: Saint Joseph.

History of similar polls

Brian Vargus of IUPUI took a similar poll in 2000. “Though Jill Long Thompson had a lead in Saint Joseph, she did not have a lead from the new part of the district considered democratic, says Vargus. Vargus continues, “Also running even among women, as much as 20% behind Chocola among men.”

His poll showed Chocola trailed by about seven points in his race against incumbent democrat Tim Roemer. So this time around, “We asked people whether they voted for Chris Chocola or Tim Roemer in the last election. In some areas where Roemer did well, as much as 20% of Roemer in last election is now voting for Chocola. That was a bit of a shock. It means democrats were not holding their base.”

Some still undecided

Of course, the only poll that really counts, is the one taken on election day. That's still more than two weeks away. “The poll is as good as the day it was finished, it doesn't mean votes will stay that way. A big plant closing or terrorist event could impact these voters.

The actual polling took place between October 9 and 13. The margin of error is plus or minus five points, which means the lead still holds up. Poll-takers say, at worst, Chocola received support from 42% of the respondents, at best, Long Thompson had the support of 40% of the respondents.

While republican Chris Chocola is favored by about 12% points in The Elkhart Truth/NewsCenter 16 poll, the bigger number to point out is the percent of undecided voters.

The poll found 14% of voters are still undecided. Meaning the momentum can swing in favor of the other opponent at any time. Republican Chris Chocola says this latest poll shows he has momentum while democrat Jill Long Thompson says she's seeing different numbers.

“Our numbers have me up two points which are comparable to other polls conducted at the same time,” explains Long Thompson.

”We still think it will be a close election but we are very encouraged and see consistent signs that momentum is building in the right direction,” says Chocola.

Stay tuned

Both candidates say they are trying to gain momentum by getting more voters to the polls. According to our poll, voter turnout is expected to be low, around 35%.

On the late edition of NewsCenter 16 we'll tell you what both candidates now have planned to get voters to the polls on November 5.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

This is a poorly written article - it's not made clear who did the polling, and it takes some math to figure out that Chris Chocola (R) leads Jill Long Thompson (D) 47-35.

These would be fantastic results, if true, but I'm skeptical. Three previous polls by Research 2000 (one as recent as last weekend) have shown Jill Long Thompson with small leads ranging from 1-4 points.

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[Fracas]

This is really something! 400 is a very small sample, but hey - a lead is a lead!

Thanks for the ping.

[AntiGuv]

Something definitely doesn't seem right with this poll. By example, I just went and looked up the figures on Howard County which is 58% Dem - that would explain why Chocola's 2-1 lead there is so "surprising" according to the article (hint: it probably doesn't exist...) This poll seems very much the outlier considering the recent neck & neck matchups from other polling outfits.

[KQQL]

400 is VERY good sample for a District

[KQQL]

@

[Torie]

Nope. Howard ain't Dem.

        Bush    Gore               Bush   Gore
Howard  59.63% 37.83% 1.01% 1.53% 20,331 12,899 

[AntiGuv]

Almost no Indiana county is Dem on the presidential level, but that says little to nothing about a state which elects Democratic Governors and Senators by the same lopsided margins that they cast votes for President on the same ballot. I've warned you previously about fixating on the Presidential line numbers, but you seem wedded to that approach as if your life depends on it....

2000 House: 45.4% token Dem; 52.81% Rep. Buyer(i)

2000 Governor: 55.0% O'Bannon; 44.1% McIntosh

1998 Senator: 63.6% Bayh; 34.9% Helmke

[Torie]

Ya, it voted more GOP than the state as a whole each and every time. Thanks for the additional data demonstrating that. And it is far more GOP than the district as a whole, which Bush I think only carried by about 6% or something.

[AntiGuv]

If unclear, those are the vote breakdowns for just Howard Co, not the district/statewide totals in those respective races.

[AntiGuv]

I suppose it goes without saying that if you state something as if it's uncontrovertible, that naturally makes it truth....

Statewide

Bush: 58.2%
Gore: 40.3%

That's an 18% margin in case you need me to do the math.

O'Bannon: 56.2%
McIntosh: 42.2%

Bayh: 63.7%
Helmke: 34.8%

I guess it looks like the district more or less mirrors the statewide totals, so far, but here's a kicker:

District Vote

Buyer: 60.8%
Goodnight: 37.5%

Oops. No, now it looks as if Howard Co. is precisely 8% more Democratic. But, then, I suppose one might find that out just by looking at registration data & primary voting trends as I did to begin with....

[Torie]

For double or nothing, what county do you think Goodnight resided in?

[AntiGuv]

Would it be safe to guess Howard Co?

[crasher]

So do you believe this poll?

[AntiGuv]

Yes, of course I do. Kokomo is clearly 59% Republican, precisely as indicated by the 2000 Presidential vote. I don't know what I could possibly have been thinking in my persistence - particularly once you'd informed me otherwise. Its strange tendency to produce twice as many Democratic than Republican voters in primaries is clearly meaningless, of no consequence whatsoever. Yes, indeed, I believe that contrary to all the other polling in this district, Chocola is leading 2-1 in a county that even Bush didn't win 2-1. Most of all, I believe this simply because you've informed me that's the case.

[AntiGuv]

And that last should be directed to Torie, not crasher.

[AntiGuv]

Sorry, BTW, I'm not in a pleasant mood at all - been a bad day. I think I'll wander off now and let this conversation be. It's not a very big deal anyhow; certainly not worth getting worked up over...

[Torie]

Not really. Too much good news too quick requires verification. But the Dems don't seem to be gaining traction anywhere lately, except in a couple of governor's races perhaps, and of course Minnesota.

[BlackRazor]

Here's a link to a better article on these poll results:

http://www.myinky.com/ecp/home/article/0,1626,ECP_775_1492185,00.html

[Kegger]

One of the reasons the Dims carved out Kokomo (not Howard county at large) is the large UAW presence in that town.