Where are we in the race(s) for the Senate?

[Gunder]

Way to go! Must feel great to be part of such a grassroots effort. Best of luck!

[cicero's_son]

God bless you and the other committed conservatives of West Virginia! Here's hoping you all can pull off another major upset.

[lasereye]

Dems 52 Repubs 48

[Gunder]

Repubs 52 (including Chafee); Dems 48 (including Jumpin' Jim Jeffords)

[paul544]

Whats your breakdown? Who going and whos coming? I actually agree with you and was wondering.

[Coop]

but they also wrote the state off in 2000 as unwinnable for Bush.

Negative, Ghostrider. WV was definitely in the mix as a hopeful W state.

[EternalVigilance]

Yeah right.

If they thought it was winnable, they would have put some money behind it...I don't believe it.

Shoot, by your reasoning, they must think we can win this year too, then...cause they aren't putting any money here this time either. /sarcasm

;-)

[BlackRazor]

If they thought it was winnable, they would have put some money behind it...I don't believe it.

The polling throughout 2000 indicated that WV was clearly winnable by Bush. But just because it was considered potentially winnable didn't mean it was necessarily worth an investment of money. I say this for two reasons. First is that while the polling showed Bush ahead in the vast majority of WV surveys, the Democratic tradition of the state probably caused the GOP to think twice about putting money here, as opposed to targetting a more GOP-friendly state.

Secondly, was the question of whether to dedicate money to a state with only 5 electoral votes. Again, the decision was probably made to focus on larger battle-ground states, rather than smaller states with a traditional Democratic edge. That's a reasonable strategy in my view. You simply can't contest every single state with the same ferocity... you have to pick and choose. The Bush people were not expecting this election to be as close as it was (note Rove's electoral vote prediction in the final week), and were it not for the late-breaking DUI story, they likely would have been correct. That would have made WV largely irrelevant in the final analysis. It is fortunate that things turned out as they did in WV.

[lasereye]

I think Hutchinson and Allard lose, and Thune wins in SD. I'm least confident in the SD pickup of those 3, so it could be 53-47.

[princess leah]

I am hoping for a big upset down in Georgia with Saxby Chambliss taking over Max Cleland's seat...Chambliss has Heisman Trophy winner Hershal Walker stumping for him - GO SAXBY!

[EternalVigilance]

It is fortunate that things turned out as they did in WV.

Would you mind if I nominated that statement for 'Understatement of the Week'?? ;-)

[EternalVigilance]

You have done nothing to undermine my main and very pressing point---that Jay Wolfe has a very credible and viable campaign going on the ground in WV in the year 2002; and that with a modest investment of already available funds by the Senatorial Committee, we can take Rockefeller right down to the wire by running radio and TV ads that exploit the feeling that's already out there in the electorate that John D. IV has been in office too long---and that it is 'time for a new Jay in West Virginia'.

If we lose this race, and perhaps the control of the U.S. Senate, by just a few points because the leadership of the GOP failed to come to our assistance, I for one am not ever going to let them live it down.

EV

[millco88]

I think the point is that there are at least 12 races that are more likely to result in a Rep victory that also need funding. Given how much money is being poured into the Caputo race, it's obvious that the national party has not turned its back on West Virginia, only on the idea that Wolfe can win. If you can find a single poll that demonstrates Wolfe has a chance, I'd suggest you send it to Bill Frist.

[BlackRazor]

You have done nothing to undermine my main and very pressing point---that Jay Wolfe has a very credible and viable campaign going on the ground in WV in the year 2002

I apologize if you thought that was my intent. The only point I was trying to undermine was your assertion that no one gave Bush a chance to win in WV.

[EternalVigilance]

I think the point is that there are at least 12 races that are more likely to result in a Rep victory that also need funding...

What, like the million they pumped into the idiot Mike Taylor's campaign in MT? Give me a break. Most all of those other races are flush with cash. If they can't win in those mainly small states with the millions they have already received, they deserve to lose. All we're asking for is a measly $250,000.

Given how much money is being poured into the Caputo race, it's obvious that the national party has not turned its back on West Virginia, only on the idea that Wolfe can win.

They have treated Jay Wolfe with disdain and contempt from Day One, frankly...and acted as if Ms. Capito was at the top of the ticket, which she's not. It's insulting...to Jay Wolfe, but to the Republicans of WV as well.

Another point: the funds that the Congresswoman is receiving are coming from Congressional Committee funds, not the Senatorial Committee. Apples and oranges.

If you can find a single poll that demonstrates Wolfe has a chance, I'd suggest you send it to Bill Frist.

If you can find a single poll period, I suggest you send it to me.

We are using every penny we can muster to equip our troops in the field...troops that are winning tons of votes every day. If you think we're going to use those scant resources to pay some pollster to tell us that we already know, you're nuts.

I've gone round and round this mulberry bush for months, and I've actually just about given up on the leadership of the GOP. They seemingly couldn't care less about the rank and file who are fighting the battle out in the precincts...the very people who gave them the Oval Office.

[EternalVigilance]

I apologize if you thought that was my intent.

No apology needed. I have no doubt that you will be as happy as anyone when and if Jay Wolfe wins.

The only point I was trying to undermine was your assertion that no one gave Bush a chance to win in WV.

Actually, there was someone who believed WV could be won--Coddy Johnson, President Bush's godson and prominent member of the White House political team.

He took some solid steps late in the game to help out the troops here....and for that he deserves our eternal gratitude.

[AlGone2001]

I predict 51-49 for the GOP.

In my opinion, it's easier for us to pick up seats than it is for the dems. To lose one seat would be pretty good considering the history of off year elecetions for the president's party. It'll be a good picture of his strength and popularity.

If it ends at 50-50, Chaffe will jump. I think he'll stay if it goes to 51+ for the GOP.

[BoomerBob]

I thought I would use this thread to highlight something I heard Dick Morris say on the Sean Hannity show today...

Morris and Hannity were running down the tight Senate races when Morris said that he thought Allard (from CO) would lose, in part to his "incumbent under 50%" theory and that he termed Colorado as a "progressive" state with elected officials like "liberal Democrat Senator, Ben Knighthorse Campbell." It's sloppy commentary like this that give voters the wrong impression.

Colorado is hardly a "progressive" state. Over the last decade, the gap in voter registration has increased in favor of Republicans, GOP Governor Owens is about to be re-elected by a landslide, our congressional delegation, after this election, will likely consist of 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

In addition, Sen. Campbell (formerly a conservative Democrat) switched parties some six years ago and is a solid Republican.

Yes, the CO senate race will be closer than we would like but Allard will win and by a biggermargin than most pundits are predicting.

For those looking for a good national perspective on this year's races, the best place person to pay attention to is Michael Barone. No one knows local politics than him.

[lasereye]

If it ends at 50-50, Chaffe will jump. I think he'll stay if it goes to 51+ for the GOP.

The peculiar thing about this is that as long as the GOP is in the minority, he'll be a Republican. So it's like he's choosing to be in the minority. You would think he'd jump even if the Dems retain the majority.

[ncweaver]

Do you not believe the latest Zogby poll showing Wellstone 46% to 37% for Coleman? I'm trying hard to be optimistic.