How Much Trouble Is Ted Cruz Really In?

FiveThirtyEight ^ | August 31, 2018 | Dhrumil Mehta and Janie Velencia

[2ndDivisionVet]

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the week

A new Texas Senate poll came out this week showing Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke within 1 point of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. It gave new life to a familiar question: Could Texas finally flip blue? Normally, this would be the point where we lecture everyone about the dangers of putting too much stock in one poll. But this poll wasn’t even much of an outlier — it came on the heels of a few others that also show O’Rourke within a few points of Cruz. That’s an awfully close race for a state that President Trump won by 9 points in 2016. Is it time to start betting on a Democrat in Texas?

We still say you should hold onto your chips.

OK, first the new survey: Emerson College’s poll of registered voters, conducted online and through robo-calls, reported 38 percent support for Cruz and 37 percent for O’Rourke, well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. About a fifth of respondents remained undecided.

Emerson was the sixth consecutive pollster in our database to find the Texas Senate race within single digits....

[2ndDivisionVet]

Who here thinks that he's in trouble in Texas?

[shalom aleichem]

I do, He prolonged his Trump hate for far too long.

Then he got himself filmed playing basketball

[Wayne07]

I think he is in trouble if the hardcore Trump voters don’t get excited about Cruz again. Cruz was an idiot at the convention, but y’all gotta let it go and vote, volunteer, and get some money to Cruz.

[Hang'emAll]

I believe with all the anti-trump media shenanigans and socialist candidates most Texans will be voting the party line of Republicans.

So Ted should pull it out.

[vpintheak]

If Texas turns retarded and votes for a rat instead of Cruz, well; that’s pretty retarded.

[Disestablishmentarian]

If there is any question, the Trump-Cruz mega rally in October (at Cowboys Stadium?) should resolve it.

[heshtesh]

I don’t believe for a moment this election is going to be a problem for Ted.

[chris37]

My guess is that he is not, and my hope is that he is re-elected.

[newfreep]

Lots of illegal Meeheecans and dead people will be voting

[Lurkinanloomin]

He wouldn’t be if he had kept his mind on being a good Senator for Texas.

[The_Media_never_lie]

I do, He prolonged his Trump hate for far too long.

Then he got himself filmed playing basketball

---

What was he thinking(drinking)?

[over3Owithabrain]

Cruz will win easily, by 7-10 points.

[struggle]

2018 Primary
D Votes @1,000,000
R Votes @1,500,000

[butlerweave]

Beto the Hit & Run expert ?

[Trump20162020]

The poll they’re talking about here is B.S. Look at its topline numbers, for both Cruz and Beto, they’re both in the 30s. Cruz in all the RCP polls is like 49%, 51%, 51%, 47%.

There is no way in hell there are that many undecided voters this late in the race. Junk poll.

[MrEdd]

His trouble is pretty much long entrenched democrat vote counting.
In all the years since Ann Richards was booted out they have never been dislodged.

Fake polling to fabricate a facade of viability for Beto is needed to have any hope of pulling shenanigans.

[Bernard]

Conventional wisdom is that an incumbent under 50% is in trouble. Which means, how much do you believe the polls?

And of course, how much does conventional wisdom really know?

[Nifster]

Hard to tell.....Mr. Warmth had better be working hard because his campaign manager Roe is an idiot

[donozark]

If we lose Texas, we lose America.

[Nifster]

What are the cross tabs? Party distribution etc