Posted on 08/07/2017 11:08:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
All the signs suggest that 2018 is going to be a very good year for Democrats.
Midterm elections are historically terrible for the president's party. In 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, the president's party has lost seats. In those 18 elections, the average seat loss is 33. Those numbers are even more daunting for presidents under 50% job approval -- as Donald Trump is right now. Since 1946, the average seat loss in the House in that situation is 36 seats.
But before Democrats get too delirious about the election to come, they should read this paragraph from David Wasserman's terrific analysis of the 2018 election on FiveThirtyEight:
"Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats."(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at edition.cnn.com ...
The important thing is the primaries. Get the RINOs out!
Suppose a district (or state) wants a moderate and not a conservative?
most seat loss is during mid term is due to presidents alienating there base with unkempt promises. at this point President Trump has not alienated his base in fact I think it has expanded because he has kept to the spirit of his promises. I think 2018 is going to be a real bad year for democrats and in the republican primaries the republican establishment will get a real scare from some surprise chalengers
....when you have a group of treasonous bass turds like the current RATS...when their down, you step on their throats and deliver devastating lasting punches...send them into decades of recovery
The only evidence he presents is historical trends. Why would historical data matter in 2018 when there is nothing normal anymore about the elections and parties?
Here are some things he avoids:
- Democrats have no message except for stealing Trump's message or Russia. That isn't going to go very far with their lunatic SJW core. They won't come out to vote for that.
- The economy will still be doing well, and jobs will still be coming back. The democrats have lost the rust belt for longer than just a few years.
- They still have no bench.
- They have little money.
- Several democrats may be on trial by then.
- The Trump administration will have been working on voter fraud for a year by then. There will be some progress.
- Illegals will not be voting
- Blacks will not be voting in large Obama numbers. Depending on the jobs continuing to increase in the economy, more could vote republican.
- Slush funds are being cut off.
- Private sector unions are coming around on Trump and know that their base is voting Trump now. They are not an automatic democrat vote anymore.
Interesting. 2018 is going to be an interesting horse race between disaffected Republicans and virulent true believer Democrats. I’m glad that the mathematical Logistics are on our side because there could be plenty of Republicans very unhappy with the way things have turned out who will stay home and Republicans staying home is generally not a good sign of anything.
The Democrats sucked in 2010. They sucked in 2014. And they sucked in 2016. And guess what? In 2018, they’re still going to suck. We’ll see what happens.
Most of us are going to show up to vote the Uniparty hacks out of a job.
The way things are; the dems currently have the senate. Not officially of course but with all the RINO’s in the publican box like McCain, Flake, Collins, Murkowski, and Graham; there aren’t enough to overcome these dems in publican clothing.
What’s a “ moderate”?
A candidate who campaigns as a republican but votes like a democrat?
Ballots are the bullets of CW2 right now. So get involved next summer, make calls, ring door bells. Keep the House and Senate, else Impeachment and grid lock is what you will hear for next two years. We have a chance to expand the 52-48 marginal Senate lead as Dems defend something like 13 seats.
Dems are defending 25 seats (including 2 independents) in the Senate. 10 of those seats are in states won by Trump. GOP has to defend 8 seats.
The pundit or polling expert that calls out the real 2018 Mid-Term election results will become famous forever. Every pundit and every political poll is so far off the mark, it is “the joke of the century”.
Facts: The vast majority of the American people could care less about the Democrat Party, Special Council, Robert Mueller and his “Clinton” gang of thug lawyers, Republican RINOS & Establishment types will get challenged in primaries early next year and many of them will lose their seats in a primary.
Results of 2018 Mid-Term elections: The Republican party will pickup eight to twelve Senate seats and, twelve to twenty House seats. Democrat Party is in full self-destruction mode and, their Media fools are helping them to implode. End of story.
For the life of me, I don’t understand the Rat’s agenda. If they weren’t so “hair on fire” each day the “natural” rythym of US politics may have actually given them the House next year. I really don’t think the electorate is going to turn the House over to raging morons. The Rats have let their tactics defeat their own strategy, if you ask me.
As far as I can see, the Democrats are focused like a laser beam on making darn sure that Donald Trump is not re-elected in 2018.
Meanwhile, the Republicans seem to be focusing on House and Senate races.
If I had to guess, I’d say one of these strategies is a complete waste of time.
Attention Surplus Disorder wrote: Interesting. 2018 is going to be an interesting horse race between disaffected Republicans and virulent true believer Democrats. I’m glad that the mathematical Logistics are on our side because there could be plenty of Republicans very unhappy with the way things have turned out who will stay home and Republicans staying home is generally not a good sign of anything.
The only “disaffected Republicans” will be those whose CongressCritter didn’t vote for Trump’s agenda. In that case, the “disaffected Republicans” should primary their CongressCritter in favor of one who will. If their CongressCritter voted for Trump’s agenda, then there is no reason to be “disaffected”.
I can’t wait for 2018! I’m going to help Trump get people who will help him Make America Great Again.
The ONLY message the democrats have to offer is “blah, blah, blah Trump.”
I think people are really getting tired of that drivel now.
In another year, plus, they will have totally tuned them out.
Another takeaway is that the GOP may never have to confirm a Democratic nominee ever again. Just simply refuse to confirm anyone and don’t allow recess, and no Democrat can ever govern.
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