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Without Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton might have lost Virginia as well
The Washington Post's Monkey Cage ^ | November 17, 2016 | Boris Heersink and Brenton Peterson

Posted on 12/04/2016 7:31:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

In last week’s presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost nearly all the swing states. However, Clinton managed to cling to Virginia — the home state of her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (D).

Did Kaine’s presence on the ticket help save Virginia for the Democrats? We believe it did.

Some political science research argues that vice-presidential candidates do not significantly impact the vote — even in their home state. In contrast, our research shows that VP candidates add an average of nearly 3 percentage points to their ticket’s vote in their home states.

Our research relies on a new approach to measure the vice-presidential home state advantage, known as “synthetic controls.” For each running mate, we use a combination of similar states to construct a “synthetic” version of their home state, which mirrors the electoral results of the home state over a series of past elections.

For example, to estimate how much Vice President-elect Mike Pence helped the Republican ticket in Indiana, we constructed a “synthetic Indiana” that combines Nebraska, Montana, Pennsylvania, Hawaii, Utah and Alabama. None of these states, on their own, perfectly match Indiana in the last several elections. But once combined, the Republican vote share in “synthetic Indiana” looks quite similar to that of Indiana from 1984 to 2012.

The difference between Indiana and “synthetic Indiana” is that “synthetic Indiana” does not have a home state running mate on the ticket in 2016....

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Virginia
KEYWORDS: election; hillary; kaine; trump; virginia

1 posted on 12/04/2016 7:31:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You mean.....Trump would have walked right up and grabbed her Virginia?


2 posted on 12/04/2016 7:36:30 PM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Even with Tim Kaine, he probably took Virginia if it hadn't been for Governor McAuliffe giving convicted felons the right to vote.

EXCLUSIVE: Virginia Gov. Pardons 60,000 Felons, Enough To Swing Election

3 posted on 12/04/2016 7:41:51 PM PST by Robert DeLong
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To: BenLurkin

What about those 60,000 felons that were pardoned, too?


4 posted on 12/04/2016 7:42:16 PM PST by Arkansas Toothpick
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nope.

The illegal alien vote in Virginia is in the hundreds of thousands. The democrats and the SEIU and its allies have been registering illegals for over a decade, especially in Northern Virginia.

Trumps loss of 200,000 votes was mostly from his loss in Fairfax County’s 200,000 democrat margin. Fairfax County is run totally by the democrats so no one is ever going to check up on the vote fraud in that county.


5 posted on 12/04/2016 7:44:21 PM PST by oldbill
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I was hoping that Tim Kaine would be ‘gored’ in Virginia.


6 posted on 12/04/2016 7:44:51 PM PST by proudpapa (Trump Pence earned it.)
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To: Robert DeLong

Not to mention all of the cheating that no doubt went on in the counties around DC like Arlington and Fairfax, and with a Clinton crony like Governor McAwful in charge no doubt massive cheating occurred to help Hillary win the state.


7 posted on 12/04/2016 7:45:34 PM PST by dowcaet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think she did lose Virginia if you remove the fraud votes.


8 posted on 12/04/2016 7:48:28 PM PST by TexasCruzin (Trump is the man. #TrumpPence16)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

McAuliffe was sent to the Governor’s mansion to deliver VA to Hillary.

We all knew this, the RINO scum knew this. And they let him win by leaving Cuccinelli out to twist in the wind.

Never forget the RINOs’ treachery.


9 posted on 12/04/2016 7:50:32 PM PST by Shadow44
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I live in VA and am doubtful. For an R to win statewide anymore, you pretty much need to keep your opponent napping with an artificially high polling lead - Warner was 0.5% from losing to Gillespie, Cuccinelli closed double digits vs McAuliffe to lose by 2.5 points, and/or run someone who will goose the rural turnout w/o freaking out the DC suburbs. Trump about maxed out the rural vote but didn’t stem enough of his losses in NOVA to pull it off. I don’t think anyone gave a crap about Kaine one way or the other.


10 posted on 12/04/2016 7:52:38 PM PST by MountainWalker
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To: dowcaet

Yeah that too.


11 posted on 12/04/2016 7:52:58 PM PST by Robert DeLong
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And no recounts there either.


12 posted on 12/04/2016 8:07:22 PM PST by Luke21
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Let’s not forget about the 60,000 Felons who had their voting rights restored By Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe just before the election. And the 206,000 that he did the same thing for back on April 22nd of this year. Those who received McAuliffe’s letter also got voter registration forms with pre-paid return postage. No others in Virginia received such a service.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/06/exclusive-virginia-gov-pardons-60000-felons-enough-to-swing-election/#ixzz4QnVfycpD


13 posted on 12/04/2016 8:16:28 PM PST by cquiggy
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To: cquiggy

I lived in Virginia for more than a decade. Wish I was there now, so much history and natural beauty. An early morning drive along the Blue Ridge in autumn is one of the more soul-stirring experiences I can think of.

So, I would like to hope that if not for RAT voter fraud, Trump would have taken the Old Dominion.


14 posted on 12/04/2016 9:21:56 PM PST by Nothingburger
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Come out Virginia, you’re running with a dangerous crowd...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhjNm20XbXw

Hillaryous Rotten Criminal/Tim Klown ALERT!


15 posted on 12/05/2016 12:47:08 AM PST by PGalt (CONGRATULATIONS Donald Trump)
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Virginia went blue again because very large democratic population centers within the state. Those areas are bloc voters for any Democratic ticket.
The carpet bagger McAuliffe didn’t help matters with his devious carte blanche manipulations and was thwarted somewhat by the state assembly. The carpet bagger did manage to process 60,000 requests from prior felons via personal agenda rubber stamping and not through the normal and vetted adjudacation procedures set forth in statute.

Shameful really, an eleventh hour rush to bolster the crush of the blue bloc.

I sometimes think that states might do well to have their own electoral process at the county level. At least the state assembly represents the constituents somewhat accurately.

Trying to sugar coat the outcome and present as something other than shyster political trickery and the large liberal population centers dominion over the state as a whole is simply BS.


16 posted on 12/05/2016 3:43:15 AM PST by Clutch Martin
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