Posted on 10/26/2016 5:49:12 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 44.6% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
47.6% of REP ballots, have been returned and 44.7% of DEM ballots have been returned.
10/26/16: REPs - 606,144, DEMs - 569,783 lead of 36,361 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.5%
10/25/16: REPs - 556,058, DEMs - 525,076 lead of 30,982 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.7%
10/24/16: REPs - 503,632, DEMs - 483,019 lead of 20,613 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%
10/23/16: REPs - 496,040, DEMs - 476,292 lead of 19,748 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%
10/22/16: REPs - 463,959, DEMs - 443,502 lead of 20,457 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/26/16: REPs - 52,634, DEMs - 62,884, lead of 10,250 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
10/25/16: REPs - 41,660, DEMs - 50,050, lead of 8,390 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
10/24/16: REPs - 33,400, DEMs - 38,935, lead of 5,535 for DEMs
10/23/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs
10/22/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs
Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000
Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes
2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 36,361
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 30,631
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 5,730
how about independants? I can’t see many of them breaking for hilLIARy
The REP lead in absentee ballots is now 2.5%. If things continue like this, I’ll have to raise my target above 3.0%!
Stunned that DEMs haven’t taken the lead in combined voting. Looking good so far...
Folks, go VOTE!
When does the early-in-person voting end in Florida?
Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,230,314 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,584,251 total returned (3,230,314 * 0.8)
1,111,227 - REP 43% (2,584,251 * 0.43)
1,033,700 - DEM 40% (2,584,251 * 0.40)
77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS
So far, Republicans are holding their own in early voting. As you said, at the end of early voting in 2012, Democrats held a large lead (combined absentee and early vote). So far, Republicans are slightly ahead.
We will have to monitor this more. About 2 million votes have already been cast (about 25% of the total vote in 2012). If this pattern holds, you are looking at basically an R=D turnout, or maybe a slight D lead. That would make all of the polling to date virtually useless, which assumes a significant D advantage.
Even if he wins Florida, he needs 2 of these 3 states: NH, CO, NV.
November 5th. However, I think counties have the leeway to include Sunday the 6th.
So I think November 5th or 6th, depending on county.
Independents and other parties are about 17.5% of early in-person and 18.5% of absentee ballots returned.
Romney won independents by 5%. Trump should do better than that.
Please clarify and adjust if necessary.
Not if he takes Pennsylvania - which I predict he will!
The 2012 stats (combined DEM lead of 168,000) was for the day before the election (November 5th).
The 2016 stats of course are cumulative through yesterday’s voting.
Thank you, Speedy, for all your hard work on this. I’m in Florida, voted for the Donald on Monday. Did you say election day voting usually favors reps? I figure it does. Looking good for the man! Thanks!
I know, but it’s more likely that he would take NH or NV than PA.
Wouldn’t totally count Virginia out either..just need a lower than normal showing from Fairfax county.
Yes, election day typically favors Republicans.
In 2012, Dems had a 168,000 margin (lets assume 100% of DEMS votes Obama and 100% voted Romney) by election day. Obama won the state by 74,000. So REP decreased his margin by almost 100,000 on election day.
This is all rough approximation.
I “feel” Trump wins the working class vote in PA and there will be decreased AA turnout and he wins!
Thanks, Speedy!
Okay, thanks. I see that Duval county in-person early voting ends by November 6th (a Sunday). Also, the polls are open on Sundays, so there are 12 days left of early in-person voting, including today. Assuming your calculation of a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS is correct, and that the DEM lead in in-person voting grows proportionally through the 6th (DEMs lead by 30,631 after 2 days x 6 more two day periods = 183,786 projected lead).
Offset the DEMs projected in-person lead of 183,786 by a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS, then DEMS would have a 106,259 lead going into election day.
It is going to be tight.
according to the latest poll in PA
Trump is only trailing by 3 and is getting 29% of the African American vote
That is impressive
PA is in play and Trump has all the momentum
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