Trump’s Odds of Winning Way Better than Nate Silver Believes

mishtalk.com ^ | April 14, 2016 | mishgea

[entropy12]

The Republican nomination is going to be close. Nate Silver has Trump coming up short. I have Trump winning by a slim margin.

I am looking at some states where I likely underestimated Trump’s delegate count more than enough to matter.

Connecticut

A new Connecticut Poll came out on April 10-11.

That’s just one poll, but it’s significant. Moreover, if Trump wins big in New York on Tuesday, April 19, momentum will likely carry over for the Connecticut primary a week later.

According to Green Papers, Connecticut awards 13 at-large delegates in a winner-take most fashion. If someone gets over 50% they win them all.

There are 5 congressional districts with 3 delegates each going to the district winner. These all appear to be in Trump’s camp.

I only gave Trump 19 delegates out of 28, following Silver’s expert panel, simply because there were no polls.

I now estimate Trump will sweep all 28. That is a pickup of 9.

[entropy12]

Author Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. I have always enjoyed reading his economic blogs. He seems to be usually ahead of the curve.

[Washi]

Second-guessing Nate Silver doesn’t usually turn out so well.

[entropy12]

Nate Silver never projected Trump to be the front runner 6 months ago. Silver has been wrong on many occasions. Google it.

[ObamahatesPACoal]

Vince McMahon should put Cruz through a table.

[9YearLurker]

Shedlock is a phenomenon himself.

[Cowboy Bob]

Jeane Dixon predicted Kennedy's assassination. It was the only prediction she ever got right. So, she milked that for over 30 years. I think Nate is following in Jeane's footsteps.

[GOP Poet]

bookmark

[Fai Mao]

“Jeane Dixon predicted Kennedy’s assassination. It was the only prediction she ever got right.”

Sounds like she should have been listed as a suspect

[silverleaf]

Given what we’re seeing winning the votes of the people can be meaningless if snakes in the grass are twisting the delegate selection process for the #nevertrump elites.

[SMGFan]

She later admitted, “During the 1960 election, I saw Richard Nixon as the winner”,[10] and at the time made unequivocal predictions that JFK would fail to win the election.[11]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeane_Dixon

[TheCipher]

During the 1960 election, I saw Richard Nixon as the winner

What she failed to take into account was the dead rising up to vote in Chicago.

[LS]

Sure did for the Israelis, the Scots, and so on. He has been wrong as often as right.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Meh. Silver’s track record is not that great.

[Gratia]

“Meh. Silver’s track record is not that great.”

I do not disbelieve you, but I did a search and could not come up with a definitive article either way for politics.

If you have a link I would be grateful.

[LNV]

Silver has gotten Trump, as well as other predictions, wrong many, many times. Silver got his chops predicting Obama’s win in 2008 exactly, and he’s made a career out of that one great prediction since. His website is good for looking up data, but his analysis is often faulty, and he has consistently underestimated Trump.

http://www.salon.com/2016/02/11/nate_silver_is_having_a_bad_election_why_he_should_tell_us_if_he_thinks_hes_made_a_mistake/

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/nate_silver_said_donald_trump_had_no_shot_where_did_he_go_wrong.html

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/03/nate-silver-donald-trump-prediction

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/nate-silver-polls-are-failing-us-206799

http://fortune.com/2016/03/12/trump-nate-silver/

[GilGil]

Here is one reason for starters.

[entropy12]

Cheers!