Posted on 11/06/2012 8:46:29 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The time has come to make a prediction about the 2012 election, and I’m not going to shirk the task. I’ve spent the past few weeks walking you through the thought process I’ve had about the decisions made by both campaigns, the missteps and missed opportunities on both sides, and the central question seems to me to be this: in the long term, demographic trend lines indicate that President Obama’s base is larger, more diverse, and allows for more paths to victory. But elections aren’t in the long term, they’re snapshots, as the White House is fond of saying every first Friday of the month, a moment in time when Americans assess the candidates and make a choice. And for all the long term factors which favor Obama’s approach to politics, in this election I expect the American people to choose to take a different path for the next four years.
You could go blind looking over the polling data in this election and attempting to analyze the internal information and the trendlines of key groups. Dan McLaughlin's article does a good job of summing up the limitations of polling, and the divergence of state and national polls, which was clearly on front and center display in this cycle. Some allege bias behind this, but I see more a lack of information, even about something as simple as what percentage of cell phone voters you ought to include in your assessments. But a few points have stood out to me as remarkable for their consistency over the past month, and for how little the Obama campaign has done to disrupt them. And these points all lean toward a Romney victory...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Zero has been a categorical failure, intrinsic failure, colossal failure.
And, he’s been a colossal douche.
The reason he’s dropping the “white” and “independent” vote (apparently the “white” vote is separate?) is that he’s been a racist since he was groomed for public life by his coreligionists in the various sponsoring foreign states.
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
If all we did was show up with a few thousand more votes than 2010 that would be almost total capitulation to the Democrats.
Presidential years draw more voters than mid-term years.
I agree with absolutely everything you wrote. The only problem is the news media paints precisely the opposite picture and use these phony polls with D+12 advantages to “prove” their case.
I live in LA. I am on the freeways every day. And here is what I can report: You wouldn’t even know there was a presidential election going on around here. Barely a car has a bumper sticker on it. Very FEW yard signs anywhere around. Contrast this to four years ago, there was Obamamania all over the place. Every other car had an Obama sticker on it. Tons of yard signs all over the place. Busy Obama phonebanks working well into the evening. This year: NOTHING ZILCH NADA. Zero enthusiam for Obama. ZERO!!!!!!
Not predicting that Obama will lose here in CA. But this prediction I can make without any hesitation: Obama will NOT carry CA by 24 points like he did four years ago. I think Obama will be lucky to carry the state by 10%. There are NO signs of youthful Obama supporters this year, even in the Hispanic neighborhoods you see no signs of Obama support. What few yard signs that are up are for local candidates.
I am talking percentage of the vote, not raw turnout number.
overall turnout for this election will be R +3/4.
As opposed to D+7 and D+3 in 2008 and 2010 respectively if memory served.
In OH, they close at 7:30. I’ll be working as an observer for the R/R campaign in a bit—I’ll be checking off people’s names as they come in and it will be sent to Boston via an app on my phone. I’m also supposed to watch for voting irregularities and I can press a button for legal advice if I need it. Probably won’t happen at my precinct (I know one of the workers there fairly well), but it’s nice to know they are on the case at R/R headquarters. I told them I was coming this afternoon to do this, and they said they would have someone to swear me in (Ohio law). They also told me where I could observe and where the rolls would be posted later today at 4 pm.
So where do you get Dem+7?
Not sure where you are getting D+14 unless you are stuck on a single state or something. The National turnout delta in 2008 was D+7 and in 2010 it was D+3... national turnout delta this election will be R+3/4
let’s see your computation. are you using total vote as the base, or are you comparing Democrat to Republican votes?
No, this isn’t which party GOT a vote, the D+7 and D+3 for 2008 and 2010 are the delta between voters registered to each party who showed up, it has nothing to do with HOW they voted.
IE Registered Democrats who voted represented 39% of hte people who voted, and Registered Remplicans represented 32% of the people who showed up to vote, is a D+7.
In 2008 the turnout was D+7, in 2010 it was D+3, this year I fully expect R+3-4
Has nothing to do with final vote total, or who voted for who.
And by refusing to stop illegal immigration and limit legal immigration, GOP leaders have betrayed their party and conservatism. Most children born this year will be minority. You do the math.
You mean hatin’ whitey doesn’t sell well to whitey and normal people of color? Oh noez!
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