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10 Things Everyone Gets Wrong About Ohio and Pennsylvania in the 2012 Election
HillBuzz ^ | November 3, 2012 | Kevin DuJan

Posted on 11/03/2012 2:56:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

I really hope you hold accountable every conservative writer you see in the next few days freaking out over “Obama winning Ohio!” because this is ridiculously apocryphal; anyone who has ever lived in the buckeye state should know it is going to award its 18 electoral votes to Mitt Romney this year and it won’t even be close. Look for Romney’s win to be a 54% to 46% blowout for Republicans. That’s because Ohio is not a swing state this time around…since Obama’s deliberate push to the Left over the last four years has forced a pendulum correction shift that has now made Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Oregon, and even New Jersey the real swing states (instead of the swing states being Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, and North Carolina like last time…when the political pendulum had swung wildly to the Left during the now-stale “Hopeychange” fad of 2008). There’s just no rational reason for anyone to be worried about a Republican losing Ohio if on the last weekend before a presidential election the states really up for grabs with a 50/50 shot of either side winning include MINNESOTA…and a possible (but not necessarily probable) pickup for Romney is actually New Jersey (which, after Hurricane Sandy and the ineptitude that Democrats have shown in handling rescue efforts there, is a true possibility…as crazy as that might at first seem). If you think of that pendulum swinging, it had to pass Ohio to reach the point where Wisconsin and Minnesota are in play (and would need to swing even deeper into Democrat territory to put states like Washington, Connecticut, and Delaware into “swing” category). I wish it was an absolute armageddon for Democrats...

(Excerpt) Read more at hillbuzz.org ...


TOPICS: Iowa; New Jersey; Ohio; Pennsylvania; Wisconsin; Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012; democrats; iowa; newjersey; obama; ohio; pennsylvania; polls; romney; wisconsin
Agree? Disagree?
1 posted on 11/03/2012 2:56:39 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I hope he’s right. I think he is, but I don’t wan’t to be too optimistic.


2 posted on 11/03/2012 3:01:39 PM PDT by mkmensinger
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why not make a list of the biased/worst reporters and send them a note on Tuesday night congratulate them on being on the worst reporters list. A list we can use anytime. Doesn’t matter is the ditz claims to be conservative or liberal - STUPID is all that matters.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 3:02:37 PM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; PaulZe; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


4 posted on 11/03/2012 3:05:21 PM PDT by randita
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
It will go R, but I'll be happily stunned if it is more than 4, and think it will be on the high side of 3.

Again, however, there are two things NO ONE is really accounting for:

1) Ds/Rs "enthusiasm gap," as noted by almost all polls (yes, there is an outlier now and then) but basically this is anywhere from 3-5 points. That's a pretty big gap if you're dealing with a million people.

2) The "flipped D." There won't be tons of these, but there will be a goodly share, and NO "flipped Rs" who voted for McCain who now want to vote for ZEro. NO ONE is accounting for these. EVERY analysis I read assumes (as we did in our absentee analysis) that Ds will vote D and Rs will vote R. WRONG. We don't know how much, but we do know that there will be a + number in the Romney column here. Add 1+2 and you have a 3-4 point Romney win.

5 posted on 11/03/2012 3:10:08 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Maybe.

Maybe not....


6 posted on 11/03/2012 3:10:23 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

My only issue is with the idea that the rightward trend in the midwest is a result of Obama or Romney. Its actually a long term trend that’s been going on for a decade (at least here in Michigan)

Kerry only beat Bush by around 4% in 04. 08 was a fluke “historic” election. In 2010, the GOP ran the table on the democrats and they didn’t pick up a single seat above the county level and the GOP took total control of the state government.

I won’t go so far as to guarantee a Romney win in Michigan but it will be very close win or lose. The democrats don’t appear to be mounting any serious challenges to pick up news seats here this time around. I also think the big union backed ballot proposals are going down to defeat.


7 posted on 11/03/2012 3:10:40 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Great article


8 posted on 11/03/2012 3:17:23 PM PDT by polkajello (Romney: The Lesser of Two Weasels)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t know.
When it talks about Washington, New Jersey and Connecticut it falls instantly into the wishful thinking category to me, even without reading the rest.

This is a close election. The best point to predict it will be less close than it looks to be is saying that many pollster are sampling the likely voters like we still were in the fall of 2008 and that can make the difference in Romney advantage.

Romney is a position to win, he’s up in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. He just need Ohio or Wisconisn+Iowa or Nevada+Iowa to unseat Obama, so there are several possible paths, but none of them has to be taken for granted and there is no landslide coming. Keep that in mind otherwise any not-so-great poll will be disheartening.
I don’t think that talking about winning New Jersey can put anyone in the right track.

This is how I see things from 7000 Km away.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 3:26:48 PM PDT by Massimo75
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To: Massimo75

Gov. Romney is running ads in Pennsylvania and maybe Oregon.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 3:30:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why are you putting up articles without any opinion of your own?


11 posted on 11/03/2012 3:50:03 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Massimo75
When it talks about Washington, New Jersey and Connecticut it falls instantly into the wishful thinking category to me, even without reading the rest.

Not necessarily, at least about CT/NJ. However, that is because Romney's style/demeanor appeals more to the northeast tastes. A guy like Romney will do 20 points better in Ct than a guy like Gingrich, even if their positions were identical.
12 posted on 11/03/2012 3:50:54 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Pennsylvania is still possible and having enough money they did the right thing buying all the ads, and making two stops just in case.
My view about Pennsylvania over the years has always been the following: in oder to win Pennsylvania a GOP nominee must have such a national advantage (more than three points) that he dosen’t need Pennsylvania to win the electoral college. But if they sense there is a real chance it’s right to give it a try. I saw the Ryan rally earlier today and people were really on fire.

Oregon, honestly I don’t see it coming.

Concerning Minnesota I was wondering if buyng ads there could be a way to “attack” east Wisconsin. Cause Wisconsin is really a possible catch this year and a critical one!


13 posted on 11/03/2012 3:56:37 PM PDT by Massimo75
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I hope so. We know that Romney is getting the independents, more women,etc etc. We know that most people think the USA is on the wrong track. Obama has Majority disapproving.

After all that, I don’t really see how it could even be close. Now about stealing the election. I just don’t trust those touch screen thingy’s. Even if it shows Romney, how do you know someone didn’t program it to go to Obama?

I just heard Obama at a rally a few minutes ago give his Osama is dead and Al Queada is on the run. Can’t believe he is back to saying that. Anyway, he sounded totally flat, bored, like he was reading an unappetizing school lunch menu.


14 posted on 11/03/2012 4:11:49 PM PDT by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Dr. Sivana

Sure Romney will outperform a guy like Gingrich by at least 20 points in the north east. But I suspect a guy like Gingrich would lose in Connecticut and New Jersey by a lot more than 20 points, so...

Anyway, no one would be happier than me if Romney would carry those states. I have a political GOP oriented blog here in Italy and I’ll be doing liveblogging the whole night (7 hours tome difference with the US east coast). If Romney would carry those states we could call the election soon enough to allow me for at least a couple of hours of sleep :)


15 posted on 11/03/2012 4:36:21 PM PDT by Massimo75
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To: Dr. Sivana

Sorry, I meant the ads bought in Minnesota could be a way to attack WEST Wisconsin. I mistakenly wrote east.


16 posted on 11/03/2012 4:36:47 PM PDT by Massimo75
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To: Massimo75
Sure Romney will outperform a guy like Gingrich by at least 20 points in the north east.

Saying CT is in play is not quite the same as saying it will be won.

However, CT in the not too distant past, has voted Republican up and down the ticket. In '76, CT went for Ford,, both times for Reagan, and in '88 CT went for Bush the elder even though surrounded by Dem states going for Dukakis.

Anyway, my main gist was that people should not just think about candidates' positions when predicting a state's affinity. Demeanor, background and personality all count. If Santorum had gotten the nomination, I believe he would have gotten a jump start in Ohio, PA, MI, IN, and MN; and Obama would not be able to use a "Bain is bad. Rich people are bad." attack style. He would have also picked a few (not enough) ethnic Catholics in New England, but all despite being to the right of most of the rest of the candidates on some hot-button issues.

Romney's persona plays well in New England, which might help him in NH and maybe one EV in Maine. I don't really think CT is in play. But I don't think it implausible that it could be. I say this as one who was born and raised in CT, and lived most of my life there.
17 posted on 11/03/2012 4:51:51 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
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To: Vendome

Thanks for the insight.


18 posted on 11/03/2012 5:04:36 PM PDT by Henry Hnyellar
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Agree.
If I may make a friendly suggestion....that nice report would have been much easier and more pleasant to read if it had been broken into two or more paragraphs.

In a huge block of copy like that it’s difficult to move down line-by-line without losing one’s place, skipping lines, etc.....at least, for an old codger like me.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 5:27:01 PM PDT by Tucker39
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To: Tucker39

That was how he wrote it. The break for the next paragraph was coming up but I only can go to 300 words. I almost never change something from how the author presented it.


20 posted on 11/03/2012 5:35:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Dr. Sivana

I’ve never been in CT. I’ will one day. I still doubt it’s really in play but I welcome your opinion and if I could I’d certainly choose you to be right and me to be wrong :)


21 posted on 11/03/2012 6:06:33 PM PDT by Massimo75
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We’ll let ya’ slide this time. ;o)


22 posted on 11/03/2012 6:14:52 PM PDT by Tucker39
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t know anything abt this guy but I LIKE him...
And one thing he didn’t mention that I think is important in OH is Obozo’s War On Coal.


23 posted on 11/03/2012 6:21:30 PM PDT by matginzac
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To: fortheDeclaration

Why? Is that against the Rules?


24 posted on 11/03/2012 6:24:51 PM PDT by matginzac
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This was a very interesting and well written article. Two interesting points made are what the author calls “fear porn”, and the diminished ability of the devilcrats to pull off very much voter fraud in OH and PA due to Republicans in key government positions.
25 posted on 11/03/2012 7:03:39 PM PDT by Eagle Bomba (Me Tuesday Night: watching the msnbc meltdown and drinking a celebratory twelve!)
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To: matginzac

Just seems strange not to at least state what you think.


26 posted on 11/03/2012 9:12:51 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I guess...
but what I like about this site and even the internet in general is that you really have to push it to be “banned” or whatever. IOW, not many “rules”...
Good to go with the flow on somethings...


27 posted on 11/03/2012 9:28:16 PM PDT by matginzac
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To: matginzac

Who said anything about banning?


28 posted on 11/03/2012 9:42:59 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

by now zero and his marxist cronies know they have lost. let’s just hope cbs and cnn call penn early and really demoralize the treasonous #$%^%$&* and they stop voting. we can win a few more senate and house seats. Jimmy carter’s concession speech at around 530pst was a stroke of genius, if you wanted to get even more rats out of the race. Let’s hope it happens again.


29 posted on 11/03/2012 10:04:07 PM PDT by genghis
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To: fortheDeclaration

No one...just making a point...


30 posted on 11/04/2012 5:20:40 AM PST by matginzac
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