Three Numbers That Could Hold the Key to a Romney Win

Fox News ^ | November 1, 2012 | Chris Stirewalt

[2ndDivisionVet]

“We’ve got to make people understand that what they’re seeing is not the real Mitt Romney.”

-- President Obama’s top political adviser, David Plouffe, describing the president’s re-election message, according to top campaign advisers interviewed by The Wall Street Journal for the piece “Obama Adviser’s Strategy Is High Risk, High Reward.”

A deadlocked race on the first day of November means a wild ride for Election Day and a boost for antacid sales in Boston and Chicago.

With five days to go, both campaigns can make a convincing argument for why they will have the edge on Tuesday.

Team Obama says that the tide came in for Romney, but not high enough to carry him to an electoral victory in Ohio and the rest of the Rust Belt. A slew of polls that show Romney falling just short in this region make a powerful argument for the president’s closing theory of the race. Those polls provide fresh fodder for the establishment press narrative that holds that Obama will be re-elected.

Team Romney can argue just as convincingly that close is good enough for the Republican nominee. Romney’s advisers point to high voter intensity on the Republican side and a strong performance for the GOP nominee with several groups that were key to Obama’s 2008 victory. The Romney theory is that they have the edge in a race that goes down to the wire.

Either side could be right, and unlike the previous two elections, the polls don’t give us a clear indication of where this race is heading...

[2ndDivisionVet]

So who is right?

[jwalsh07]

I think Romney is in a better position based on Gallups megapoll last week showing R+3 on the generic ballot.

[basil]

IMHO, it will be Romney by a landslide.

I can also see signs that we might keep the House as well as take the Senate.

I think working Americans are sick and tired of paying for those who choose not to work—

Call me an optimist—but this is what I think can/will happen.

[jwalsh07]

I think the house is 99.9999999% certain to remain republican by a considerable margin. the senate is much trickier.

[Lmo56]

I have a number of black friends who are going to vote GOP this time and who have been polled.

They all say that they feel intimidated and say that they are going to vote DEM - for fear that the polling organization knows their ethnicity. So, they say DEM. They don’t want to be seen as “traitors to their race”.

However, they say come election day, they are voting GOP.

[ilgipper]

Gong off Rasmussen today, rmney has a .8 lead. Obama still in mid 47s. Hard to see how he gets to 50% unless he shows a trend closer to 50 tomorrow and Sunday.

[ilgipper]

Going off Rasmussen today, rmney has a .8 lead. Obama still in mid 47s. Hard to see how he gets to 50% unless he shows a trend closer to 50 tomorrow and Sunday.

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

That’s exactly what I’m hoping for. Sandy bump fades, indies break for Romney on election day. 47.5 to 51.5 for Romney on Tuesday.

[meadsjn]

IMHO, it will be Romney by a landslide.

I agree. 90% of people called by pollsters are not responding.

Obama supporters are too proud of their stupidity and ignorance NOT to shout it out to the world.

Anti-Obama voters are seething with rage.

[Deagle]

I think it will be a Romney blowout! I base that opinion on the fact the the liberal polls are close or Romney is leading and the fact that way too may folks feel bad about telling a pollster that they are not liberal enough to vote for the Liberal Black guy.

They are just embarrassed to admit that they can’t vote for him (even though he is black and a minority) even if his economic ideas are stupid. This is a result of the media and their bombastic attitudes toward whites and their perceived attitudes toward blacks (at least as they perceive it). It’s way past time to forget about race and vote for the BEST candidate that just might restore America... What a change!

May the best man win - what a wonderful idea!

[smokingfrog]

Many people are fed up with 0bama, even if they won’t admit it.

[867V309]

Well, this thread has been dead for 3 hours, but the following quote requires examination. It references early voting in Ohio:

In 2008, Obama led Republican nominee John McCain 52 percent to 34 percent among early voters (19 percent then as it is now) in the Pew survey. Now, Romney leads 50 percent to 42 percent.

First, the parenthetical statement "19 percent then as it is now". This is neither grammatical nor logical. WTF?

Now to the meat of the statement. The difference in early voting percentage between 2008 (52-34=18% Obama) and thus far in 2012 (50-42=8% Romney) is 26%!

My question is this: How can you expect a Hussein win in Ohio with a 26% swing in early voting from 2008?

[BlueStateRightist]

Good to hear and thank you for the information. Please clarify, in other words, Romney isn’t too far, with rounding up or down, from the 49-47 lead he had with Rasmussen early last week?