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Is Rasmussen Playing us like a fiddle? The Psychology of a Close Race

Posted on 11/02/2012 7:09:20 AM PDT by AdamBomb

First, let me say that I do believe the race is close….but I don’t see this thing as a tie.

Like it or not, Rasmussen has Republican leanings. He also knows that there is more enthusiasm on our side.

So here is the question: Is Rasmussen or has he intentionally kept this race close (even though he might know otherwise) to ensure that our side is not complacent? How else could he use the +3 Dem turnout unless he is certain of that amount of fraud?

What is the psychology of a close race? Is it different for Democrats that it is for Republicans?

Thoughts?


TOPICS: Polls
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/02/2012 7:09:22 AM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: AdamBomb

Dem voter fraud +3 - +5%


2 posted on 11/02/2012 7:11:05 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: AdamBomb

Rasmussen got hammered by Sandy. I doubt that his staff can even get into work if they wanted to (No Gas). He has thrown in the towel by making a no-call.


3 posted on 11/02/2012 7:13:03 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: AdamBomb

I wish I could be as optimistic as some seem to be, but I’m worried.


4 posted on 11/02/2012 7:14:22 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ( For AMERICA's sake: Vote for the Mormon, NOT the muslim; The Capitalist, NOT the Communist! FUBO!)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

Alternately, Rasmussen got a call from Axelrod asking if they’d like a taste of what Gallup got.


5 posted on 11/02/2012 7:14:30 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Re-distribute my work ethic, not my wealth.)
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To: AdamBomb

We just have to accept the reality: it is going to be close.

Romney might win.

But he might not.

If he does NOT win, obama will be even weaker than he has been the last two years. Yes, it would be very, very bad if we don’t get to flush this anti-American loser. But he will be limited. The country will survive. And next time, the D’s will nominate a white guy and the few straggling sympathy votes will come back to us.

Upward and onward. Show no fear. We are in this for the long haul.

And.....Romney might still pull this out.


6 posted on 11/02/2012 7:15:01 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: tsowellfan
Good point, but it may not even need to be that high: just 1-2% nationwide, but targeted to the obvious key states.

As far as Ras, I don't think he's cooking the books at all. We all tout him as the most reliable pollster when he tells us what we want to hear and we get conveniently skeptical when he doesn't.

The kool-aid drinkers cherry-pick the polls they agree with and the ones they don't, just like they did in 2008 (and how wrong the kool-aid krew was then!). Ras isn't suddenly a bad guy just because he is showing momentum for President Choomy; he's just reporting what appears to be the truth.

7 posted on 11/02/2012 7:18:29 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: ConservativeDude
But he will be limited

How will somebody who bypasses Congress be limited?

8 posted on 11/02/2012 7:20:06 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: AdamBomb

Rat vote fraud is real and rampant ,, easy +3% ,,, I want the next congress to pass laws regarding the acceptance of vote totals from the states in federal elections ,, if the vote isn’t on a paper ballot , counted by hand or by optical scan that has been verified accurate , with observers from each major party at each polling place... with photo id checked before a ballot is handed out... then your vote totals will not be accepted.


9 posted on 11/02/2012 7:22:53 AM PDT by Neidermeyer
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To: AdamBomb

Because the turnout is likely to be D+3 or D+2 as that has been the historic precedent for many years. 2004 and 2008 were both anomalies in opposite directions.


10 posted on 11/02/2012 7:27:41 AM PDT by Jgerald
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To: Old Retired Army Guy
Rasmussen got hammered by Sandy. I doubt that his staff can even get into work if they wanted to (No Gas). He has thrown in the towel by making a no-call.

He may be a little disrupted, but he's still updating and analyzing. I certainly hope he's not doing new polling in NJ - Scott Rasmussen is way too smart to try to predict their voting based on those who respond to his calls under these conditions - but he just updated CO, IA, and OH, all with gains fro Romney (and FL and VA just lost a little ground).

As of today, Rasmussen holds Romney in the lead by at least 5% for 206 EV, plus his leads in CO (10 EV by 3%), VA (13 EV by 3%), FL (29 EV by 2%), OH (18 EV by 2%), NH (4 EV by 2%), which takes Romney to 280 EV in states that he leads by 2% or better. Iowa is now 1% in favor of Romney according to Scott's numbers, and Wisconsin is still tied. I don't see that update as a "no call", just a refinement of his previous numbers based on available current and historical data. Ras can't assume that a presidential election will be as lopsided in favor of Republican turnout as the 2010 off year election. Whether or not we think this year will be like 2010 in conservative turnout, there is no mathematical justification for using those numbers. Obama has built enthusiasm in his base, and their turnout will be better than in 2010, although we don't know by how much. Fortunately, the cost of reviving his lethargic base was alienating the swing voters, and I have been loving those independent numbers. Rasmussen has Romney leading, barely, but it's well within the margin of error for random sampling errors, even before you worry about his underlying assumptions. This election is definitely too close to call based on the math.

11 posted on 11/02/2012 7:39:51 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: ConservativeDude
Obama could hand the keys to our nukes to Putin and the democrats in the Senate would not vote to impeach him. He will ignore anything he does not like and we may not survive him.
12 posted on 11/02/2012 7:44:53 AM PDT by jps098
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To: AdamBomb

I don’t think we’re being played. How I see it is Americans are getting cold feet about breaking away from the devil they know. Change during a turbulent time seems to be frightening to them.


13 posted on 11/02/2012 7:46:53 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: jps098

ok.

maybe you’re right.

we all know the stakes are higher than ever. but it is also true that obama might win. if that happens, we can either throw our hands up and say, “goodbye America, easy come, easy go.” Or, we can keep trying. Them’s our choices. (but you might be right).


14 posted on 11/02/2012 7:49:35 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Jgerald
Because the turnout is likely to be D+3 or D+2 as that has been the historic precedent for many years. 2004 and 2008 were both anomalies in opposite directions.

If conservatives and GOPers aren't motivated enough to turn out in record numbers and unseat Obama, they never will be.

15 posted on 11/02/2012 7:50:01 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

I’m with on the worrying. A close race is easier to steal. I’m afraid we’re doomed with another 4 year to eternity and beyond reign of the evil one.


16 posted on 11/02/2012 7:50:56 AM PDT by bgill (Evil doers are in every corner of our government. Have we passed the point of no return?)
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To: ConservativeDude

“If he does NOT win, obama will be even weaker than he has been the last two years.”

In what way? No indications are showing the GOP is going to win back the Senate.


17 posted on 11/02/2012 7:51:30 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: AdamBomb

Willard wins with 271 or 272 EV without OH.


18 posted on 11/02/2012 8:07:23 AM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Roberts has perverted the Constitution)
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To: ConservativeDude

If Obama does win it could be only due to fraud. I don’t think he will be weaker, he will push his agenda through without having to worry about reelection. He doesn’t worry about working with congress.


19 posted on 11/02/2012 8:12:25 AM PDT by Rusty0604
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To: AdamBomb

The thing to get out of these polls is Obama (incumbent) < 50%.


20 posted on 11/02/2012 9:30:00 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: AdamBomb

I think, at this point, everyone is on edge. Everyone is worried. This is the most important presidential election in our lifetimes. If we don’t return Obama and the rest of his circus back to Chicago, I don’t think this country survives.

The problem is that we want answers now. Because there is so much at stake. We can look at polls but we won’t know a damn thing until election night. That’s the reality. Sorry to break it to everyone. National polls don’t mean a thing now. The only thing that matters is state polls in those key swing states. I don’t think FL, NC and CO are swing states any longer. They are going to Romney.

OH, PA, NH, WI, MI, IA, VA, and NV is where this game is at. Both sides spin their numbers—who is ahead with women, with Independents, with Hispanics, etc. That’s just slicing and dicing. It’s all about the outcome in those key states—for good or for bad. That’s what it is.

I think Rasmussen is highly reliable. I also think there are other polls that are reliable as well. I look at all of the polls, because I want to know all of the angles, even if I know some of the polls are bunk. The problem is—we won’t know for four days and it’s a nightmare waiting. So, we look to the polls for certainty—and we just aren’t going to get it. Hell, the campaigns know their own internal polling may not tell the whole picture.

Just make sure you vote. Volunteer and take people to the polls. Take friends and neighbors. Contact your local Republican party and ask where they need help. At this point, the only thing that matters is GOTV. Worrying won’t do anything, but driving a few people to the polls to vote for Romney could make the difference.

Hang in there everyone. We can do this.


21 posted on 11/02/2012 9:42:18 AM PDT by Suntracker
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To: AdamBomb

His function is not to play.


22 posted on 11/02/2012 9:50:51 AM PDT by NoLibZone (I know what it is to be Black,to be hated for who I am, more so than Whoppi does. I'm a Republican.)
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To: Arm_Bears; Old Retired Army Guy; AdamBomb

“Follow the Money”!!!

Simple question: WHO pays Scott Rasmussen???


23 posted on 11/02/2012 10:06:08 AM PDT by danamco (-)
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