this bottom lines it nicely. It has always been about Ohio. Same as in 2004, and when it went D in 06, it was clear that no Republican could win it in 2008. obama happened to need it less, b/c he cut into GOP terrain. But with the “normal” GOP map back where it belongs....it’s all about Ohio again.
Of course, if the national trend continues and pulls Romney up, then Romney will likely do pretty much what obama did in 2008, ie, he will pick up those normally D states such as PA. MI, NV and so on.
I’ve said this for a logn time, and I’ll say it again..
Obama will not win any state he got less than 55% of the popular vote in in 2008, with the exception of MN. And he will win states that he did get 55% of the vote in 2008, WI for example.
Obama is, was and ever will be DOA in the south, the idea that he is going to win any southern state was always a laughable proposition. So, NC,V and FL are off the table for him... and always were.
Obama too is DOA in the rust belt... IN, IA, OH, WI are GONE, he has and neve rhad any shot at winning any of them.
OHIO is only considered a “battleground” state because Obama knows he can’t win without it, even if he is down 20 in the polls there he will keep fighting for it.
The realy battleground states are MI & PA, and so far Romney has pretty much conceded the field in PA, but is fighting from what I can tell in MI. Obama may hold PA but if he does, its just because Romney didn’t fight for it, and Obama will only hold it by a few points.
MI Obama may hold, but if he does would only be a slim margin, I think post debate, Romney will easily win MI too.
Why is this? Simple... forget all the nonsense... forget the bogus polls, here is the simple reason why...
BLUE DOG DEMOCRATS. Blue Dog Democrats are NOT ideological liberals, they are just god fearing, blue collar workers who go to work and church and believe in a fair shake. They are tied to the Dem party over union and history than over radical leftist politics... and this administration has effectively pissed in their faces for 4 years and told them its rain.... And its coming home to roost.
Blue Dogs represent about 60% of the overall Democratic party, and roughly 20% of them are openly stating, they will vote for Romney, this was true before the debate, and I am sure that number is even higher now.
that 20% openly admitting they won’t vote for Obama, represents about 3.5-4% of the total overall vote or about 10% of the overall democratic BASE!!!
Obama cannot make up losing 10% of his base, but that’s exactly where he has always been. Last election he won the independents, and held the base, this time his base is gone, and he’s losing indies by a large margin.
Obama is DOA in the rust belt because that’s where the blue dogs live. They are not NY or LA or San Fran leftists.. they don’t agree with what Obama has been doing, they are the ones taking on the chin with this economy and they don’t believe government should be making churches pay for abortions or contraception etc etc etc.....
And guess what? THE RUST BELT and THE SOUTH are their home! Obama has ZERO chance of winning this election.
Now what I am curious about is this shift that is coming this cycle among the Blue Dogs, particularly in the rust belt, is.. is this just a cyclical shift due to the wretchedly bad president, or is this a long overdue shift, much as the south experienced away from the democratic party??? If its the prior, dems will be back next cycle or two... if however it is part of a longer, and long overdue re-alignment, exacerbated by such a horrible president... Then there will not be another Democrat in the White House for a very long time.