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PPP: Obama up single digits in Colorado, Michigan
Politico ^ | 09-04-2012 | Alexander Burns

Posted on 09/04/2012 11:46:53 AM PDT by MNJohnnie

he prolific Democratic polling firm has the president ahead, by tightening margins, in two swing states. Here's Colorado:

PPP's first post-convention Colorado poll finds Barack Obama continuing to hold the lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49-46. This is, however, the closest PPP has found the race in four Colorado polls this year suggesting that Romney may have received a modest bounce in the state.

Last month we found Obama ahead by a 49-43 margin in Colorado. But in the wake of his selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate and the Republican convention Romney has consolidated the GOP vote, going from an 85-10 advantage with his party base to an 89-8 one. He continues to trail in the state because of his struggles with independents there though. Obama has a 48-41 lead with them, a trend that's been consistent in our polling there all year.

And Michigan:

PPP's first likely voters poll in Michigan this year finds Barack Obama with a solid lead in the state, 51-44. That's down a good bit from our last registered voters poll in July which found Obama ahead 53-39. That's a reflection of the fact that the state could be looking at a very different electorate in 2012 than it had in 2008. We find that 34% of likely voters on this poll are Republicans compared with 33% who are Democrats. Exit polls last time showed 41% of voters as Democrats and just 29% as Republicans.

Nevertheless, Obama still has a healthy lead. That reflects the fact that despite his ties to the state, Michigan voters just don't embrace Romney. Only 45% have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with an unfavorable one. They don't accept Romney as one of their own either — only 34% consider him to be a Michigander to 57% who do not.

Like most data on the Obama-Romney matchup, there's a glass half-full and half-empty read for both sides. Any lead is good news for a president as vulnerable as this one, but Romney can take some comfort in the fact that he's closed the gap.


TOPICS: Colorado; Michigan; Campaign News
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; 2012swingstates; campaigns; elections; polls
So what say you MI and CO Freepers? Any chance of your states going RR in Nov?
1 posted on 09/04/2012 11:46:59 AM PDT by MNJohnnie
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To: Morgan in Denver; cripplecreek

So what is your sense on the ground. Any chance of swinging your state to the Red column this year?


2 posted on 09/04/2012 11:48:06 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

PPP is consistently in the tank for Obama by 9 points. Romney leads.


3 posted on 09/04/2012 11:49:45 AM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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To: MNJohnnie

I would be surprised if Romney loses Colorado, based on the active politically mormon population and so many pockets of moderate leaning conservatives.


4 posted on 09/04/2012 11:51:24 AM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: MNJohnnie

I think Obama wins Michigan.

I think Romney has a great chance in Colorado.

You can’t trust PPP. I base my assumptions on Rasmussen state polls in Michigan and Colorado as well as the gallup national polls.


5 posted on 09/04/2012 11:51:24 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: MNJohnnie

I am most interested in the polls that will be 1 week AFTER the DNC convention. With the conventions over, we will have a better look at things. The debates will be another time to wait until a few days after them to see the results. I still think this is going to be an incredibly close race. It is ashame that they did not pick Santorum or Bachmann for the Presidency. We would not even have to worry about the election. Oh well I hope next time they will learn.


6 posted on 09/04/2012 11:51:34 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: MNJohnnie; Springman; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; ...
I personally have no use for Romney but think he can pull off a win here based on the general rightward drift of the state. We've also got the voting process under reasonable control now too and that helps a lot.

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7 posted on 09/04/2012 11:52:27 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MNJohnnie; LS; DarthVader; AuH2ORepublican

weird numbers - I call BS

CO
DEM 37
GOP 37
IND 27

MI
DEM 33
GOP 34
IND 33


8 posted on 09/04/2012 11:54:51 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Tulane
I think Obama wins Michigan.

Having lived there I am sadly inclined to agree. It is going to take a couple of generations to unwind the bass-ackwards, government-centered fantasy view of economics instilled in much of the population by the UAW.


9 posted on 09/04/2012 11:57:08 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: MNJohnnie

You’d think Mitt could deliver the states he resided in (MI, NH). I understand Mass


10 posted on 09/04/2012 11:59:06 AM PDT by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
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To: MNJohnnie

You’d think Mitt could deliver the states he resided in (MI, NH). I understand Mass


11 posted on 09/04/2012 11:59:30 AM PDT by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
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To: Perdogg

These splits should have Romney up a lot. Again, one set of data is simply waaaayyyy wrong, either the set that says only 40% say Obama deserves reelection, or this.


12 posted on 09/04/2012 11:59:48 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: MNJohnnie

How heavily were the democrats overrepresented in these polls? Colorado democrats are trying to undo the taxpayers rights bill.


13 posted on 09/04/2012 12:00:51 PM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: Perdogg

More Republicans turn out than Democrats and Obama still wins?

Sorry. Not buying it.


14 posted on 09/04/2012 12:01:47 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: LS

I find it hard to believe that Obama is winning independents in CO and MI when most polling I see shows him losing independents big everywhere else.


15 posted on 09/04/2012 12:03:04 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: napscoordinator

It doesn’t look to me like the democrats are putting up much of a fight for any of the downticket races here aside from Stabenow’s seat.

They flushed a lot of money losing Michigan in 2010. $8 million in the 7th district alone. Even Dingell had to spend money he shouldn’t have had to spend.


16 posted on 09/04/2012 12:05:24 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: cripplecreek

Well, if you have no use for him, you shouldn’t vote for Romney. Or are you just talkin the talk?


17 posted on 09/04/2012 12:08:21 PM PDT by StevenFlorida
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To: StevenFlorida

I never said I was going to vote for Romney. I was asked a question and pinged the list.


18 posted on 09/04/2012 12:10:08 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: LS

Check out the ppp site I think they are playing with the sample


19 posted on 09/04/2012 12:12:16 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

I agree.


20 posted on 09/04/2012 12:13:44 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: LS

Colorado

[Romney’s up 49-46 with men, 49-47 with white voters, and 51-46 with voters over 45. ]

These numbers are fishy. Where did they poll? Boulder?


21 posted on 09/04/2012 12:18:24 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Tulane
I think Obama wins Michigan.

I agree. Michigan and Pennsylvania voters can't bring themselves to make that leap of faith to the light, apparently. Change is hard for those who have become conditioned to believe they're more secure and protected with a democrat in the White House.

By contrast, because Colorado only slid to to the darkside last election, its voters might be more willing to set themselves right. Ditto for here in Virginia and in NC and FL.

22 posted on 09/04/2012 12:23:12 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: MNJohnnie

Across the board, even with Rasmussen, the key phrase is “Obama is up” in these swing states.With unemployment >8.3% for forever, gas $4+/gal everywhere but New Jersey, the debt passing $16 T, and the middle east and central Asia about to go boom, the idea that Obama is leading is astonishing. In a sane world Donald Duck would have a 10 point lead. Why? I think people don’t want to believe their ‘08 vote for history failed. Too many accept either the Bush’s fault or Republicans are only for the rich memes,or maybe the Paulites and ideologically pure conservatives really are going to teach the GOP a lesson and stay home. Whatever the reason, Nov 6 is not looking too promising.


23 posted on 09/04/2012 12:35:11 PM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: xkaydet65

Um no Rassmussen has Obama down in his swing state poll


24 posted on 09/04/2012 12:54:29 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

25 posted on 09/04/2012 1:05:48 PM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: MNJohnnie

Obayma is up by that much if you only involve democrats in the poll. from Michigan.


26 posted on 09/04/2012 1:10:30 PM PDT by exnavy (The time is upon us, fish or cut bait, may God guide your heart.)
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To: MNJohnnie

Sorry for the delay. CO Dems are better organized than the R’s here. But I think it’s a lot closer than this poll indicates. There’s just too much dissatisfaction here for zero. There are even a number of Libertarians who will vote Romney just because it’s so close and it’s a choice between capitalism versus socialism.


27 posted on 09/09/2012 5:14:33 AM PDT by Morgan in Denver (Democrats: The law of unintended consequences in action.)
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