Posted on 08/06/2012 5:10:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.
Y’know, I never really understood Haig’s comments until I took a military history course in college. The prof was retired Air Force, and explained to the class one day exactly what Al Haig was doing. The way he explained it, since Reagan was out of action because of the shooting (obviously), and Bush was out of the country at the moment, we were momentarily leaderless in terms of the nuclear deterrent. Haig went on camera not to reassure the American people, but to make it clear to Moscow that we were, in fact, still quite capable of responding to any effort to exploit the situation.
As for Morris, I don’t have an issue with the poll numbers he’s citing. I just have noticed he tends to be overly optimistic at times and oversells his arguments.
BTW, I wasn’t the one who called him a toesucker in this thread. Billhilly’s got me mixed up with another poster.
Actually, after reapportionment, Romney would win under that scenario with 275 EVs.
You have well stated almost exactly what my thoughts are. I think there are many others who are like minded. Alas, some have not survived the ‘12 fray and are no longer with us.
Never the less, we will must plugging on to work toward our conservative ends
Hasn’t the Ulsterman crap been outed as fraud?
You mean by the hippie couple in their trailer?
Not sure whom, but I recall the thread here, where many Freepers indicated that they never believed Ulsterman in the first place.
I was referring to Snopes, run by an older left-wing hippy couple from their trailer in California.
Yes, but she isn’t dressing appropriately for that task, so all is lost:
Superman T-shirt, towering wedges: New-look Palin ditches boxy suits as she backs Steelman in MO
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2915783/posts
I see, both, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as being “non-conservative candidates for ‘12 POTUS who will end up throwing the U.S. over the cliff, for pro-leftist gains”. Both will upset non-leftists way too many times to count!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.