Posted on 08/06/2012 5:10:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.
If Morris’s mouth is moving, it means he’s either sucking on a hooker’s toes or lying.
Exactly my sentiments. Other than Ron Paul and Huntsman, Romney was my last choice. But it is what it is.
However, it is absolutely crackpot thinking to say we’re better off with Obama over Romney. Obama is an enemy of this country and will do serious harm with four years and no consequences. The idea that a Republican House and Senate can keep him in check is laughable. Hello DOJ, EPA, IRS, Homeland... They will be unleashed.
I hope he’s right for a change
Obama can not be persuaded, Obama is a committed Communist.
The choice, for adults, is Romney or Obama.
Romney does not hate my country.
Obama does hate my country.
It has been a long time since I have heard “Toe sucker” to identify Morris.
While I respect Sarah’s choice, she broke my heart.
That said, it is back to reality.
With Mitt, my kids might have a chance.
With Barack, they have none.
Romney 2012
While I respect Sarah’s choice, she broke my heart.
That said, it is back to reality.
With Mitt, my kids might have a chance.
With Barack, they have none.
Romney 2012
Preach it, brother!
I think we have a coalition of like-minded people that generally want the same things for the country, although we don't agree on several emotionally charged issues. That's OK, IMHO, as long as we can come together to stop the erosion of what we all agree is the essence of America - the right to be self-defining individuals living in a nation that celebrates the rights of individuals to grow and prosper based on their personal dreams and efforts.
I also think most of those who would vote Republican have similar ethics, and I pretty much think that even those on this board who really dislike Romney could have a good time and find commonality out having beers (or whatever libation) with those on this board who will vote for him. We're in this together, and we need each other. We are not the enemy.
I look at this (the current administration and the democrats in general) like a potentially fatal disease we are trying to eradicate. None of the therapies we have available to us at this time are ideal (e.g. they all have some toxicities and side effects, and thus we pay a price of sorts for using them), but they have the potential of preventing the disease from killing us. I think of Romney this way. He is much, much more of a sophisticated campaigner and politician than McCain has ever been, and he in no way comes across as an amiable but past his prime candidate like Bob Dole. I don't like what he did in Massachusetts with health care, and I don't like many of his positions, but I do not believe that he is a Marxist, but do believe that Obama thinks Marx was brilliant. That is huge distinction, and gives us what I believe is an obvious choice.
That said, I don't ever want to pick fights with the members of my own team, and I believe strongly that most, if not all of us here share much more than what we don't share, and thus we are a team.
Because it is likely a company you’ve never heard of. The real insiders, real pros do not usually use the names you are familiar through the public polling process.
And if he used their name...none of those guys will talk to him.
He is a toe sucker, but he used to be one of the big time insiders.
This was a great read. I felt like a kid on Christmas morning after reading it. I will make a guess the unnamed state is Pennsylvania. I have gotten 3 poll call in the last 6 weeks. The last one was last Aug 2. It was the only poll that after I was finished say I would never vote for Obama finished by stating the poll was paid for by the Republican party.
My thinking as well.
We will go to the poles to double the numbers of conservatives in the Senate and shore the numbers in the House. At that point the Romney lever pull is a tag along. By those potential events alone increase the numbers D. Morris is speaking about because we are energized to do more than one lever pull in terms of the people we are pulling the levers for.
I predicted 60 in the Senate here before Morris did and I stick to my position that the Dem's are gonna get their @$$ kicked so bad this fall it will take them 20 years to recover. Dick is right it will be a landside / blowout, we just can't get soft and not work or donate to make it happen...
Yup....Morris may be a twit, but he’s well-connected in the business.
EV: 11, 4, 10, 5, 15, 9
Unfortunately, that leaves Zero with 300+ electoral votes, a relative easy win with 270 needed.
Another scenario: Romney could win McCain states plus Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado, and Obama would barely win, but win nonetheless.
Nicely written.
I couldn’t agree more! I know Mitt Romney is not most of our first choice. I personally wanted Newt Gingrich but since Romney is the candidate we have I will certainly support him. I am tired of the perfectionists putting him down and even saying he will be worse than Obama.
Folks, lets get behind the candidate we have! There is so much to be said of the difference in the two men and if folks can’t see that then I pity them and their lack of wisdom and understanding.
I have been around here a long time and I don’t like to attack anyone but I am just tired of the comments that imply there isn’t any difference in the men. This is the man we have on the ticket.
Thanks for the link to that awesome read!
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