Posted on 05/16/2011 10:47:33 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
If she decides to run...
With both Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announcing that they will not be running for President, it eliminates two major variables from the scrambled GOP primary field. Huckabee, in particular, would have been one of the frontrunners had he decided to run, so his decision to sit out has major ramifications on the rest of the field.
Huckabee would have once again been the favorite to win Iowa. His departure leaves a major void with Iowa's large Republican evangelical Christian base, a group that is now up for grabs. Sarah Palin likely won't run, but you have to wonder what her thought process is right now since she'd likely have the best shot at swooping up those remains in Iowa. Doing so would give her a very good shot at winning Iowa, and with the type of money she'd be able to raise, she'd have just as good a shot at winning the nomination as anyone else in the field.
If Palin doesn't run, someone like Michelle Bachmann or Rick Santorum, two other Republicans who wear their religion on their sleeve, could benefit in Iowa. The question with those two is can they generate enough name ID and buzz for it to matter.
Trump turned out to be a one gimmick candidate and was never able to recover once President Obama released his long-form birth certificate and chopped up Trump's birther base. His departure though also frees up a 5-10% chunk of primary voters, a major opportunity for someone like Herman Cain, another "non-political" businessman with a no-non-sense approach, as well, again, someone like Sarah Palin who is well liked by the same Tea Party types that were supporting Trump.
Mitt Romney also benefits here. With Huckabee out of Iowa, it's one less serious contender he has to worry about in that state, a state he lost last time around. If Romney wins Iowa, he will be in very good position to win the primaries very quickly, since he is likely to do well in New Hampshire and the chances of winning Iowa AND New Hampshire and then going on to lose the primaries, with the type of money and organizational advantages he has, is slim to none.
Still though, the departures of Huckabee and Trump have the potential to benefit Palin more than anyone else, if she opts to run.
If she runs, they’ll be all over her like fire ants. She has no security
and I doubt anyone would give her any. I don’t know how that works.
Michelle Bachman might be in a better position to take them on.
I’ll go with either one.
It’s Palin’s to lose.
Maybe she needs more encouragement.
Palin/Cain, Palin/West, or Palin/Rubio would be the strongest ‘12 GOP Presidential ticket possibilities, IMHO.
They’re all ignoring the dark horse that’s galloping right at them.
They’re going to be surprised when Herman Cain gives his acceptance speech next August in Tampa.
>>”If she runs, they’ll be all over her like fire ants. She has no security and I doubt anyone would give her any. I don’t know how that works.”<<
Anyone can hire personal protection (aka bodyguards)
If her people are reading this, please call my buddy Chad:
http://www.ReynoldsProtection.com
They’re going to be surprised when Herman Cain gives his acceptance speech next August in Tampa.
Hopefully but folks were saying that about Fred Thompson too. There were bitter wars over Fred Thompson on this site.
Yeah, I know.
The big difference is Cain WANTS it and ACTS LIKE IT.
Fred, as much as I liked him, always seemed to be a bit nonchalant about the whole thing and that was ultimately his downfall.
Fixed it.
I'm still trying to figure out how a guy who couldn't even win a GOP Senate primary in his home state (twice) is going to win the GOP nomination for President.
Must have been one heck of a "learning experience".
The big difference is Cain WANTS it and ACTS LIKE IT.
That is very true. I knew Fred was done towards the beginning but when he refused to put the fire company hat, I knew it was completely over for him. Some people praised him on this site as a means of maturity. I thought it made him seem old and crotchety. lol.
Sarah has security.
Palin doesn’t need to declare until after Labor Day at the earliest.
Everybody have a nice summer.
Valid point, and my counterpoint:
I’m still trying to figure out how a governor who quit halfway through her term, and has a 60% national disapproval rating is ever going to become President.
As they say, ‘The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.’
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