Posted on 09/25/2009 9:41:26 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The Republican polling firm Rasmussen Reports surveyed 500 "likely voters" in Iowa on September 22 and came up with bad numbers for Governor Chet Culver. Former Governor Terry Branstad leads Culver by 54 percent to 34 percent, and Bob Vander Plaats leads Culver by 43 percent to 39 percent. Culver's approval rating is 43 percent, with 53 percent of respondents disapproving of the job he is doing.
Topline results and favorability ratings are here. Culver was viewed very or somewhat favorably by 43 percent of respondents and viewed very or somewhat unfavorably by 50 percent. Branstad's favorability was 64 percent, and his unfavorable numbers were just 29 percent. Vander Plaats was viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 30 percent.
These numbers will encourage Branstad, who appears likely to seek his old job again. He has said he'll decide by October, and I've heard rumors that Branstad will announce his candidacy very soon (September 28 according to one person, October 3 according to someone else). I believe that the numbers we see for Branstad this month will be his high water mark, since no one has campaigned against him for 15 years.
Vander Plaats will surely cite the Rasmussen poll as proof that he can beat Culver. The whole "draft Branstad" movement grew out of fears that Vander Plaats could not win a general election.
As a rule, Rasmussen polls tend to come in with somewhat better numbers for Republican candidates and worse numbers for Democrats. Go to Pollster.com and click on almost any national or state-level race to compare recent results from different pollsters.
The recent Selzer Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register found much better numbers for Culver (50 percent approve, 39 percent disapprove). Selzer polled 803 Iowans over a three-day period (3.5 percent margin of error), while Rasmussen polled 500 "likely voters" on a single day (4.5 percent margin of error). Selzer did not poll Culver against Branstad or any other Republican.
I am seeking further information about the likely voter screen Rasmussen used, as well as the proportion of Democrats, Republicans and no-party voters in the sample. I will update this post if I receive more details. If any Rasmussen premium subscriber is reading, feel free to post a comment here or e-mail me at desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.
The same Rasmussen poll shows Senator Chuck Grassley leading Democrat Bob Krause 56 percent to 30 percent. Chase Martyn looks at the trendlines and concludes that Grassley could become vulnerable next year. In my opinion, Grassley is still well outside the danger zone for an incumbent despite his falling approval numbers.
Click here for Rasmussen's results on how Iowans view President Obama, the economy and health care reform proposals.
UPDATE: The commenters at Swing State Project trust Selzer a lot more than Rasmussen. One person pointed out that in late July, Rasmussen found Senator Barbara Boxer of California leading Republican Carly Fiorina by just four points (45-41), while a few weeks later Research 2000 found Boxer leading Fiorina 52-31. It appears that Rasmussen's likely voter screen produces a sample skewed a bit toward Republicans.
It would have been helpful if the Des Moines Register's recent poll had asked respondents about Culver and Branstad and Vander Plaats. Craig Robinson is wrong to imply that the Register might have asked those questions and decided to cover up the results. The Register published the full questionnaire from its recent poll. Some pollsters don't think head to head matchups are useful this far out from an election.
Since Democrats can't get themselves arrested in a poll taken anywhere in the Obamunist era.
I think culver is a demorat, but it’s hard to tell form the wording of the story.
Culver is the current Democratic governor, Branstad is a former Republican governor (who served many terms and was Lt. Gov., as well) and Vander Plaats is a Republican challenger.
This is telling, because Chet Culver has done a hell of a job in Iowa, bringing new jobs. Of course there’s that matter of having a “D” behind his name...
“you’ll never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy, than Iowa”....
I lived in Iowa from 1974 to 2002 (except my service time) and never had a problem finding a job (both in the Ames area and Des Moines). There was a time in the 80’s & 90’s when you could quit one job, walk down the street and get another one the same day. Iowa has had low unemployment for decades is most areas.
I have my doubts about the ability of any governor to bring in new jobs without essentially bribing companies to move into a state even though those tactics often backfire and make no fiscal sense.
I’ve heard those words before..let me think...Star Wars..
Who’s on first? I have no idea who any of these people are/
^^
Same here. Poor writing.
I have always hoped that someone like Terry Branstad would take on Harkin in a senatorial race. But, maybe Washington DC isn’t his cup of tea.
The second the polling data does not favor the Leftists pet dogams. Too bad for them Rass findings are reflected in every single professional poll while this unknown pollster they dredged up is bucking the trend of every other poll.
Bingo here is the heart of it. Anyone who answer polls always shift tot the Left 3-5%. Rassmussen is using sound methodology, Selzer is using demonstatedly fraudulent methodology. Up to 50% of those polled by Selzer have no intention of voting. Including them in his sample is a deliberate attempt to shift the poll results to the Left since most non voters inveitably requited whatever they happen to have last heard from the Junk Media.
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