Posted on 09/22/2009 11:35:23 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Charlie Cook, one of the most respected of the political prognosticators, continues to sound the alarm for Congressional Democrats. Since August, Cook has been telling them they’re headed for electoral disaster in the 2010 midterms if they don’t change their ways.
Most of the erosion of support has taken place among independents. Although the country still seems willing to give President Obama the benefit of the doubt, at latest for the time being, they’re not willing to extend that to Congress. The threat to the Democratic majority in the House, unsurprisingly, comes in the districts of the Blue Dogs:
"I am becoming convinced, based on this and other research, that although many independent voters are disappointed in specific things that Obama has done, they still hope that he will do well and believe that he might. To be sure, red America has already given Obama the thumbs down. And blue America just wishes he would be more liberal. But it’s purple America, the independents who voted for Democrats in the 2006 midterm election by an 18-point margin, that makes the biggest difference right now. Most House Democrats live in blue America and show little awareness that their party has a problem. However, the Democrats’ majority is built on a layer of 54 seats that the party picked up in 2006 and 2008 that are largely in purple — or even red — America. Democrats ought to keep in mind that 84 of their current House members represent districts won by President Bush in 2004 or John McCain in 2008.
A whopping 48 of those Democrats — eight more than the size of their party’s majority — are from districts that voted for both Bush and McCain. That America is very different from the Democratic base in blue America, and it sees many major issues very differently."
Two things to note – as Cook notes, the number of Blue Dog districts comprise more than the Democratic majority in the House. If independents continue to desert Democrats in the numbers they have, it is not at all inconceivable that they could lose every one of those districts (all of which voted for Bush and McCain).
Secondly, the other point to understand is the leadership comes from the “blue” side of the tracks – safe blue districts – consequently they’re most likely not going to back off on their more liberal agenda (Pelosi’s claim that the health care bill will not pass the House without a “public option” being a perfect example). That could end up mortally wounding Democrats chances in those 84 districts that are traditionally red districts – enough so the Republicans regain the majority.
The political tea leaves continue to point to trouble from Democrats as well:
"The 17-point advantage that Democrats enjoyed in the January Gallup Poll (when “leaners” were included) shrank to 5 points in August. Their edge on the generic congressional ballot test has vanished, according to most national polls. For three years, Democrats enjoyed high single-digit or low double-digit leads on this question — a very good indicator of which direction (and how hard) the political winds are blowing as a congressional election nears."
Of course the question is “can Democrats recover before November, 2010?”
"What we are seeing is an electorate growing just as disgusted with the Democratic majority as it did with the Republican one in 2006. The mounting ethics problems of House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., combined with ongoing allegations about House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Murtha, D-Pa., and others on his panel threaten to make matters still worse for their party."
Despite Nancy Pelosi’s promises to have the “most ethical Congress ever” when Democrats were swept into the majority in Congress, she’s shown no stomach for actually taking on the tough ethical problems the House Democrats face. Cook is implying that unless they do (and they won’t), that combined with their agenda and the growing disgust among independents with both, could doom their chances of maintaining their majorities in 2010 (much less likely in the Senate, but the Democratic majority may be much less than at present by the end of election night).
Some Democrats are beginning to see the possibility of such an occurrence. Joe Biden said recently that the agenda the administration is pursuing is over if Republicans win in 2010.
We can only hope Cook is correct – mixed government would be a God send given this president.
To be replaced by a bunch of limp wristed sissy Republicans who will reach across the isle?
Obama OK = Wishful thinking and is an millstone around the Dems neck.
“To be replaced by a bunch of limp wristed sissy Republicans who will reach across the isle?”
oh i dont know - any new blood that gets elected in the “red” to purple districts will probably have gotten in on a strong anti-govt platform. they will probably be the new backbone that the GOP needs to get its own message across. i just read an article that the GOP in DC is acting on grassroots initiatives now. definitely a step in the right direction.
Obama OK = he doesn’t have to face the voters for three more years
"A whopping 48 of those Democrats — eight more than the size of their party’s majority — are from districts that voted for both Bush and McCain. That America is very different from the Democratic base in blue America, and it sees many major issues very differently."
Two things to note – as Cook notes, the number of Blue Dog districts comprise more than the Democratic majority in the House. If independents continue to desert Democrats in the numbers they have, it is not at all inconceivable that they could lose every one of those districts (all of which voted for Bush and McCain).
Secondly, the other point to understand is the leadership comes from the “blue” side of the tracks – safe blue districts – consequently they’re most likely not going to back off on their more liberal agenda (Pelosi’s claim that the health care bill will not pass the House without a “public option” being a perfect example). That could end up mortally wounding Democrats chances in those 84 districts that are traditionally red districts – enough so the Republicans regain the majority."
The GOP needs to recruit true blue conservative vets, returning from the War on Terror, fund them, support them and stay on message.
Throwing out the Pelosi-crats will be genuinely fun to watch.
Hence the rush to get this ‘health care’ abomination passed before the 2010 mid-terms.
But they're not. They've made it clear that in their opinion only RINOs "can win."
Obama’s not OK. We’re just picking our fights, and 2010 comes before 2012.
So, I suppose I should cheer that the very same people who had no idea what they were doing in 2008, when they voted this idiot into office, are again swinging in our direction. Here’s a better idea “purple Americans”: JUST STAY HOME.
Even in deep blue Connecticut, the democrats are in trouble. Chris Dodd, who is polling behind GOP candidate Rob Simmons, will have to spend a ton of money.
The “purple” areas of New York state (Westchester, Long Island, Syracuse and Rochester) are much closer to red, as they are disgusted by both Federal and state democrat leadership. I suspect that this is why Obama has gotten interested in New York state politics recently.
“To be replaced by a bunch of limp wristed sissy Republicans who will reach across the isle?”
If that is who we (the voters) choose to replace the democrats then that’s who it will be.
Charlie Cook is a Democrat.
Im just a little jaded at the back and forth between dems and dems light every 4 to 8 yrs. I want some conservatives who dont give two craps about bipartisanship when it comes to re-establishing our republic...
no worries
i share your exasperation and only time will tell who is right
i just find this particular climate encouraging for once
“The GOP needs to recruit true blue conservative vets, returning from the War on Terror, fund them, support them and stay on message.”
I think after the disaster called Obama cripples our defenses, someone like General David Petraeus could lead the conservatives out of oblivion.
My take is that Americans will be scared enough to want someone who has actually fought wars rather than negotiate our strength away.
I ahd always wished Norman Schwarkopf would have dipped into politics as well - he would have scared the Chavezes and Kims to death.
Those two kids who just put the hurt to ACORN may have turned this. The corruption machine will reorganize, but this disarray and has to have hurt them.
If we can get honest elections, donkey is what’s for supper.
Sean Hannity showed snips of The Campaign (Obamas) Now you can see how he was very preachy and how he used the teleprompter....I think in my very humble, but wise opinion
FOX SHOULD REVIEW THE CAMPAIGN...THE WORDS...REMEMBER “NOTHING BUT WORDS”...THE PROMISES...THE yES WE CAN...AND HE LAUGHED AT THEM...”THEY ARE DRINKING THE JUICE”!...AND MOST OF ALL THE ARROGANCE...THE MEN AN D WOMEN BEHIND OBAMA....IN FACT...I WANT TO SEE THEPICTURE OF THE PEOPLE WHO WERE AT THE KICKOFF OF HIS CAMPAIGN AGAIN....ARE THEY THOSE PEOPLE GLENN BECK IS TALKING ABOUT CONNECTED TO THE TIDES FOUNDATION, UNION?
LETS GO BACK SHALL WE...AND SHOW IT TO THE PEOPLE WHO REALLY BOUGHT THE STUFF...TAKE THE GUY WHO WENT TO BERKLEY AND LET HIM SHOW THIS TO THE COLLEGE KIDS...ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE WAR AND “ITS A NEW DAY IN aMERICA”...ASK THEM DID THEY GET WHAT THEY VOTED FOR......I KNOW A LOT OF LIBERALS THAT WANT THEIR VOTE BACK!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.