Posted on 08/11/2008 1:54:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In an election for President of the United States held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even. Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia. McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 08/08/08 through 08/10/08. Of them, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. As evidence of Virginia's critical role in any 2008 victory, a number of the vice presidential running mates under consideration are from Virginia. (Tables at link)
VA should be a safe Republican state.
Don't make the mistake of thinking McCain is going to give Gilmore coattails though. Mark Warner is incredibly popular, and Gilmore unfortunately is going to get crushed and we're going to have two democrat Senators.
Do I understand it wrong, here? In order the numbers to be tie, voters of exactly McCain's age must disproportionally choose Obama against McCain.
If Obama is losing in a Survey USA polls, which is continually low on predicting GOP numbers, then McCain’s lead in this state is 4%+. At least.
The last Survey USA poll from June had Obama up by two at 49-47%. The biggest difference I see from that poll to this one is McCain’s share of the white vote has gone from 54% to 58%. Obama cannot win if McCain receives close to 60% of the white vote. Obama also trails among Independents by 11 points and McCain receives 10% of the Democratic vote. Troubling signs for Obama in what is going to be a close race.
Well, maybe. If only 1 of 10 voters is older than McCain and 9 point lead among them could be completely wiped out by less than a 1 point lead among the younger voters.
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