Rudy Giuliani's Losing Campaign

Politik Ditto ^ | December 18, 2007

[2ndDivisionVet]

Stick a fork in him:

With fewer than 20 days until the Iowa caucuses, three men in the Republican Party stand to get their tickets punched out of the Hawkeye State.

While everything is still in flux, those likely winners will be Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson.

Notably missing out on Iowa’s political rocket fuel is national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.

While most political insiders and pundits have known for months that Giuliani had no plans to compete in Iowa, the general American electorate probably does not. Known to not pay attention to the early political pontificating, the average voter may wonder where the former New York mayor is when the big news the next day is not about him.

Giuliani went into the campaign season with an unconventional strategy that quickly became all the buzz: Skip Iowa, be respectable in New Hampshire, then head to delegate-rich Florida. The strategy for his campaign was never about momentum; it was always about maximizing his delegate count.

An unconventional Republican primary candidate, Giuliani knew he would be shunned by the ultraconservative activists in early states. His personal Iowa is Super-Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5, which has the motherlode of delegates, who happen to be moderate Republicans. Sounds perfect, right?

Maybe. If he can hold on. But right now, the Giuliani story is that his gamble is quietly becoming the incredible shrinking campaign.

“From a historical perspective,” says Matt Lebo, a political science professor at State University of New York at Stony Brook, “his strategy is clearly a losing strategy.”

[2ndDivisionVet]

I never understood why so many thought a liberal pro-gay, pro-abortion, gun-grabbing, sanctuary city RINO would snag the GOP nomination, when there are conservatives like Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter available.

[counterpunch]

I’d like to see the top three Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, and John McCain.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

It could be that when they do those phone polls that those people who support the RINOS are not really conservatives( Democrats operatives, DNC operatives ), but faking as being Republicans/Conservatives to muck waters up.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

I like to see a THOMPSON/HUNTER ticket.... all others are just RINOS

[counterpunch]

Ummm, we’re talking about the “ticket” out of Iowa, not the ticket in the general election.

And s it turns out, it seems voters haven’t directly selected the vice president from the field of presidential contenders in quite a long time. Apparently, they did away with that with the 12th Amendment.

Upon learning that, why are there still so many people who think that the presidential nominee has to choose one of his rivals for the nomination as VP? Just because John Kerry did it, that doesn’t mean it’s the best idea in the world, you know....

Anyways, Hunter would perhaps make a good Secretary of Defense, not Vice President.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

Yes, Hunter would or will make a great Sec of Defense.

[W04Man]

Bump!

FRED VETS, SIGN UP TODAY AT:

[kevkrom]

While everything is still in flux, those likely winners will be Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson.

The expectations game is against Huckabee now -- even more so than for Romney -- if he doesn't win, his "momentum" goes away. If he finishes third or lower, he's done.

With New Hampshire just around the corner, it could very well be a Romney/Thompson/McCain race very quickly. I think the most amazing story here is how McCain has managed to not only stay viable, but could potentially be one of the "big three" again.

[gbunch]

I like to see a THOMPSON/HUNTER ticket.... all others are just RINOS

AMEN! Very well-said!

[Wallace T.]

Giuliani is following a Republican version of the Democrats' "big state" strategy: carry CA, IL, NY, NJ, PA, and MI, fight over OH and FL, and write off TX. None of the first three states of NH, IA, or SC are good matches for Giuliani for one reason or another. I have seen records of advertising spending, and to this point, Giuliani has far underspent his rivals, even Ron Paul, despite being the best funded candidate, if you don't count Mitt Romney's self-financing.

However, FL is a must win for Giuliani. His best hope is if Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee split the conservative and evangelical voters prevalent in the panhandle and northern counties. He can then pull 25-30% from moderate Republicans and Yankee transplants and win. With that momentum, Giuliani is in a stronger position for Super Tuesday.

[Uncle Ivan]

However, FL is a must win for Giuliani. His best hope is if Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee split the conservative and evangelical voters prevalent in the panhandle and northern counties.

What kind of chances do you give Giuliani to pull that off?

[Wallace T.]

A lot depends on whether Huckabee can hold the lead the 12/14 Rasmussen Poll shows him having in FL. Per the report: "Mike Huckabee now leads in the Sunshine State Primary with 27% of the vote. He is trailed closely by Romney at 23% and Giuliani at 19%. Fred Thompson is at 9% in the poll, John McCain at 6%, and Ron Paul at 4%. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter each attract 1% and 8% are undecided." If his popularity bubble bursts, the runoff will benefit Thompson or Romney. A second factor is whether Thompson or McCain stick it out after the NH and SC primaries. Most of McCain's voters will likely go to Giuliani if he drops out. If Thompson goes out if he does poorly in SC, the national security oriented voters and even the economic conservatives may go to Giuliani. (Strangely enough, the New Yorker appears to be more pro-market than Huckabee or Romney). The social conservatives will probably go to Romney, save for those who are too strongly prejudiced against Mormons. (Paul, Hunter, and Tancredo are irrelevant at this point, except that the Hunter and Tancredo voters are likely to drift to Thompson should they both bail out after NH and IA. If Thompson is gone as well, those voters will sit out the FL primary.)

My guess is that Giuliani has a 25-33% chance of winning FL. I don't think Huckabee will hold up to too much scrutiny, but will put him at a 15-25% chance, but higher if he wins or is in second place in IA and SC. I would give Romney a 40-50% chance, especially if he is in first or second place in NH, IA, and SC.