Posted on 01/30/2024 2:50:48 PM PST by ckilmer
Former fusion scientist on why we won’t have fusion power by 2040
15 min https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JurplDfPi3U&list=PLbhKQRV6Toq4ocE3C1EwVbeY4ofwrPLn_
including ref (and links to 6 videos on fusion)
Its all private money right now.
I understand.
“Kids get off my lawn.”
You ignore that a lot of these private donors know they are throwing their money away!
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Of course. That explains it.
A penny per kwh. In the 50s they promised us that nuclear energy would produce electricity “too cheap to meter.” Guess we’ll see.
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It was a heady time for nuclear power in the 50’s and 60’s. Yeah that promise died with three mile island.
I was like everyone else here. Fusion is the power that will come in 20 years and always will be. But recent developments have changed my mind.
No need to give up high density liquid fuels just make them from thin air and seawater using cheap high capacity factor nuclear power.
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I’ve heard that Musk is water and carbon dioxide splitting to make methane for his rockets. But that could be just a rumor.
He does want to do something like that on mars.
My understanding is that all things nuclear in the USA were killed by NRC. The regulations are just too onerous.
The interesting thing that the fusion industry people are reporting is that NRC ruled fusion reactors be in the same category as hospital X-rays and MRI’s.
That takes fusion reactors out of the hands of the federal regulators and puts them in the hands of state regulators and the regulations are relatively easy to work with.
Former fusion scientist on why we won’t have fusion power by 2040.
Yeah the traditional view is that fusion power is 20 years away and always will be.
But if this fusion scientist has been out of the business for more than 5 years—then he has missed all the big breaking developments that are accelerating the development of the industry.
For the last 50-60 years.
For over two decades since 1997, the record for Q [fusion energy gain factor] was held by JET at Q = 0.67. The record for Qext was held by JT-60, with Qext = 1.25, slightly besting JET’s earlier Qext = 1.14. In December 2022, the National Ignition Facility reached Q = 1.54 with a 3.15 MJ output from a 2.05 MJ laser heating, which remains the record as of 2023.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor
More than 20 is needed.
My understanding is that LLNL has achieved net energy output. Further, that each shot yields a greater net energy. Finally, that the time between shots is shrinking. This may not contradict your point. Rather what it shows is that they’re moving in the right direction and accelerating their process.
Here’s an article on the LLNL laser fusion. (Conventional wisdom is that laser fusion is not commercial—but the US government is really wants a piece of the action—so they will be pulling out all stops in time to make it commercial.)
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Sun 6 Aug 2023 19.31 EDT
US scientists have achieved net energy gain in a nuclear fusion reaction for the second time since a historic breakthrough in December last year in the quest to find a near-limitless, safe and clean source of energy
Scientists at the California-based Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory repeated the breakthrough in an experiment in the National Ignition Facility (NIF) on 30 July that produced a higher energy yield than in December, a Lawrence Livermore spokesperson said.
In December, Lawrence Livermore first achieved a net energy gain in a fusion experiment using lasers. That experiment briefly achieved what’s known as fusion ignition by generating 3.15 megajoules of energy output after the laser delivered 2.05 megajoules to the target, the Energy Department said.
The first article only mentioned the output from the december 2022 LLNL shot. This article mentions the output from the July 2023 shot. The output is greater and the time between shots has shrunk. Again you may still be right that these numbers are still insufficient by long shot.
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LLNL achieved fusion ignition for the first time on Dec. 5, 2022. The second time came on July 30, 2023, when in a controlled fusion experiment, the NIF laser delivered 2.05 MJ of energy to the target, resulting in 3.88 MJ of fusion energy output, the highest yield achieved to date.Nov 16, 2023.
Thanks, the 30JUL2023 was higher (3.88/2.05 = 1.89) than the test I mentioned. However, it is an order of magnitude too small, as it should be >20. See the 15 minute video.
Yeah, the only point I’m making is that the tests are generally positive and rising AND they’re coming more rapidly.
(imho the federal facilities are under pressure to produce because of the advances private companies like Helion in Washington State and Commonwealth Energy in Massachusetts. In the last couple year a lot more fusion companies have been started. What it means is that some basic advances have been made that has enabled all this activity,)
According to this article LLNL has run four shots in the last year.
They’re making better and better designs, but it’s many years in the future before it possibly becomes commercial. A big problem is the neutrons that make the equipment brittle etc.
So, where does he expect to find a scalable deuterium source?
I think I heard from the leader of helion in the youtube that they plan to get the deuterium from the reaction itself.
Don’t ask me how this will happen. The Helion guy gives an explanation but I didn’t understand it except that the helion guy said the process was complicated and fragile at this point.
I googled: can you create deuterium in a fusion reactor?
Answer
Yes, deuterium can be created and used as fuel in a fusion reactor, although it’s more accurate to say that deuterium is one of the primary fuels for fusion reactions. Deuterium is a stable isotope of hydrogen, consisting of one proton and one neutron in its nucleus.
In a fusion reactor, the most common reaction involves the fusion of deuterium with another isotope of hydrogen, tritium, which contains one proton and two neutrons in its nucleus. This fusion reaction produces helium and releases a substantial amount of energy, making it a potential source of clean and abundant energy.
To obtain deuterium for use in fusion reactors, it can be extracted from various sources, including:
Deuterium can be separated from naturally occurring water. Water consists of two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom (H2O). Deuterium oxide, also known as heavy water (D2O), contains deuterium in place of ordinary hydrogen. By employing various methods such as electrolysis or chemical exchange processes, deuterium can be isolated from heavy water.
Deuterium can also be extracted from natural gas. Some natural gas deposits contain deuterium, and it can be extracted through various purification methods.
In some cases, deuterium can be produced as a byproduct of nuclear reactions in certain types of nuclear reactors.
Once deuterium is obtained, it can be stored and used as fuel in fusion reactors to facilitate the fusion process and generate energy through nuclear fusion reactions. Deuterium is particularly attractive for fusion research because it is relatively abundant, and its fusion reaction with tritium can be controlled more easily compared to other fusion fuels.
I don’t think that the laser fusers are the way to go.
But if they keep accelerating the rate at which they do their shots—So that in a year or two they’re doing not 5 shots per year but 20 shots per year—even marginal gains per shot will get them to 20 in 5 years.
I googled: how can fusion reactors keep neutrons from making the equipment brittle?
Answer
Fusion reactors face a significant challenge in dealing with the high-energy neutrons generated during the fusion process. These neutrons can interact with the materials in the reactor’s components, making them brittle over time. To mitigate this issue, engineers employ several strategies:
Material Selection: Choosing appropriate materials for the reactor’s components is crucial. Materials that are highly resistant to neutron-induced embrittlement are preferred. Tungsten and certain advanced ceramics like beryllium and silicon carbide are often used due to their resistance to neutron damage.
Tritium Breeding: Fusion reactors aim to use a combination of deuterium and tritium (isotopes of hydrogen) as fuel. Neutrons produced in the fusion reaction can be used to breed tritium from lithium. This process helps maintain a steady supply of tritium without relying on external sources.
Blanket Design: The reactor’s blanket, which surrounds the plasma where the fusion reactions occur, plays a crucial role in managing neutron flux. It can include neutron multiplier layers (often made of materials like beryllium) that help reduce the energy of neutrons before they reach structural components.
Remote Handling: In some cases, especially for maintenance and repairs, remote handling systems are used to limit human exposure to radiation. This reduces the risk of personnel exposure to neutron radiation.
Material Testing: Researchers conduct extensive material testing to understand how different materials react to neutron exposure over time. This information helps in the development of more resilient materials and designs.
Tritium Recovery: To minimize the loss of tritium and avoid contamination of materials, fusion reactors employ tritium recovery systems. These systems capture and recycle tritium released during the fusion process.
Periodic Component Replacement: Even with careful materials selection and design, some level of neutron-induced damage is inevitable. Fusion reactors are typically designed with a strategy for periodically replacing critical components to ensure the reactor’s long-term viability.
It’s important to note that fusion reactor development is an ongoing field, and research continues to address the challenges associated with neutron-induced embrittlement and other operational issues. The goal is to create a sustainable and safe source of clean energy through controlled nuclear fusion, and managing neutron damage is a crucial aspect of achieving that goal.
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