TXnMA
Posted on 09/29/2020 4:42:00 PM PDT by ransomnote
To summarize Bongino’s analysis, he’s basically saying that this year’s election is a base election, meaning whoever can excite his base enough to come out and vote in large numbers will win. Unlike most elections, the undecideds don’t play a decisive role in base elections.
The electorate is roughly 40% Republican, 40% Democrat and 20% Independent. Rather than trying to win over the remaining undecideds among the independents (who are probably fairly few at this point) the strategy of a base election is to fire up his base (the 40% of Republicans) enough to get a huge turnout while encouraging the opponents base to stay home in large numbers. If 80% of his base turns out to vote and 30% of Biden’s base turns out to vote, the independents don’t really matter.
Trump’s main strategy in the debate was to discourage Biden’s base while firing up his own. Towards that end he was successful. Trump’s main goal was to get Biden to disavow the left wing of his party, and he succeeded in doing that. The more Biden equivocates on whether he’s a moderate or radical, the more he alienates both wings of the Democrat party and encourages them to stay home.
Any way, that’s just a summary, and Bongino included many clips and examples from last night’s debate to help make his case. It’s worth the watch.
Well... I’m off to feed the cats and screetch some noises on the violin in the back room lol. We are having a SWARM of earthquakes off the Salton Sea. It’s about 2 hours east of us. But according to someone, not Dutch, I forget, sorry.. they are getting bigger.
Hope this link works. Kinda interesting
Stay safe my Crazifornia frens.
Petey
TXnMA
I don’t think that there are equal numbers of registered Rs and Ds. The D party has been losing numbers and R party has been gaining registered in quite a few states. I’d like to see stats. LS knows about this, maybe I’ll ask him tomorrow.
I agree with this and will add...
At the start Trump went for the democrat vote.
Alot walk away in 2016 and a lot of those voted for Trump
because the left went so far (bathrooms)
and turned off their voters.
New voter voting for Trump = 1 vote for Trump
Old dem voting Trump is -1 for DNC and +1 for Trump
It’s like 2 votes.
Trumps job performance has exceeded expectations.
More dems will be voting for Trump 2020
That’s probably true. The 40% - 40% figure was just a rough estimate Bongino threw out there to try to make his point. And of course undecideds still matter even in this election, but not to the extent they do in a normal election in which both sides turn out their base in approximately equal numbers.
I don’t remember it, my wife may. I’ll ask her and report back tomorrow. He’ll get re-elected.
-SB
There are 7 drops that mention Haspel’s name. When you have time, you can look at 1636, 1638, 1727, 1764, 3762, 3763, 4794.
I reread them and now I’m wondering how I could have ever thought she was a white hat. The dress fooled me I suppose. It often comes down to a dress with these criminals.
Thanks, very much.
I appreciated what you described of the close ups of the candidates making a big difference, and agree that watching continuous long camera shots (on RSBN) was abysmal, as from a balcony, ruined it for me, stuck on a cell phone.
That visual detachment from the subjects only served to magnify the hearing of the catterwauling and Chris Wallace’s case of oral interruptus, until I was no longer watching for coherence or content, but the slow motion progress of a train wreck, and only in case there were political fatalities, or fists to cuffs. %:#
the only common denominator is Joe Biden...who was VPOTUS for all three events.
I watched the Bongino show you’re referencing and that’s an accurate and terrific summary. I wish I’d read it before I watched it :)
You’re right. Trump is stealing away a lot of Democrats. And his numbers with blacks and Hispanics is off the charts for a Republican. But the main difference between a Trump supporter and a Biden supporter is enthusiasm. Those who support Trump tend to REALLY support Trump - enough to make it likely they’ll show up at the voting booth. Those who support Biden are, on the whole, less enthusiastic. A large number of Biden ‘supporters’, are less than thrilled with their chosen candidate and are more likely than a Trump supporter to sit this one out.
Trump’s main strategy last night was to drive a wedge between Biden and the radical left of the Democrat party, who are already less than thrilled with a Biden candidacy. Towards that end, he was successful - making it more likely that a good portion of them just won’t bother to vote this time around.
You’re welcome.
Thank you
Exactly right.
-SB
Each “strand” of tubing is called a lumen. They come with one, two, or three. They generally stay in for a few days to a few weeks so a new insertion is not necessary each time one needs IV fluid, an antibiotic or other IV medication.
I think she is a Derp like Wray. Both were to easy to get confirmation!
NEW Q DROPS - For Ransomnote’s Ping List
Q4798
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3888963/posts?page=864#864
Q4799
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3888963/posts?page=868#868
Q4800
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3888963/posts?page=871#871
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