Posted on 05/03/2020 3:40:10 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
DOW futures down -305 at the time this was posted.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
None of this matters at all. The crisis is over. The markets will recover soon enough.
Man, thanks for the encouragement.
I want to be optimistic, but I think they’re still going to try a “second wave” scare now that they are counting “suspected” cases.
Translation: Trump is going to announce some action against China this evening and it has leaked.
Last week the markets surged over the reopening of the economy.
This week the markets run scared over the reopening of the economy.
Jeeze, investors... pick an emotion already, will ya?
Supposedly, it’s on concerns that Trump is talking tariffs on China.
Remember when down 300 or up 250 was a big deal? :)
Now it’s a quiet day!
The market will tank again....with fifty dictator governors they have no idea when the economy will be up and running nationwide..
The CDC is running the show..just look at WalMart and Home Depot...smaller business will not open...the slip and fall lawyers are at the door right now waiting..
Computer algorithms dont have emotions.
Sorry to disagree.
This is just getting started.
The Market needs to develop some volatility herd immunity.
Make that 49 govenors, Georgia is OPEN!
he market will tank again....with fifty dictator governors they have no idea when the economy will be up and running nationwide..
>I want to be optimistic, but I think they’re still going to try a “second wave” scare now that they are counting “suspected” cases.
Yeah, the problem is that its almost the summer and viruses can’t survive well. They’re going to have to declare all cases of death to be Wuhan Flu to keep the numbers up.
Nobody’s buying it.
> The markets will recover soon enough. <
I’m of that opinion also, for one simple reason: Interest rates are low these days.
If you want to invest for your retirement there is only one place to go, the stock market. This will drive the market higher. Bonds paying 1 or 2% just won’t cut it. Now, if bonds were paying maybe 6%, I wouldn’t be so optimistic about stocks.
Disclaimer: But what do I know? Warren Buffett has never called me asking for advice.
My 2 cents’ worth... not as an investment advisor, but simply as someone playing the stock market continuously since college 30 years ago... the recent rally was irrational and unsustainable. The market was performing like investors were expecting a really quick economic recovery and just a modest hit to corporate earnings... when neither of those things seem very realistic at this point.
Let’s be really frank about where we’re at. We have certain regions, mostly “blue states,” that are in no particular hurry to get back to business. The modus operandi has moved from “flattening the curve” to the mentality that new covid19 infections and deaths can’t be tolerated. That’s a darned hard standard to meet.
Next, we have entire sectors of the economy (e.g., travel, entertainment, auto manufacturing, etc.) that are either totally shut down or shut down ~90%. We have certain legacy parts of the retail sector (e.g.., department stores and malls) that were *already* on life support now looking at total failure. We have an energy sector that is hit hard by low demand and very low prices.
In short, the market *should* be pricing in more of this bad news... and *should* be retesting the March 23 lows. What’s been keeping it up? Well, possibly all the liquidity that the Fed has been pumping into the economy has got to go somewhere. There’s an old saying though that in the short run, the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run it’s a weighing machine. Corporate earnings are either going to take a substantial hit for the next year or more or they’re not. The market has recently been betting on the latter, though the former looks more realistic to me. In short, Dow 18,000 looks more likely to me than Dow 28,000.
I went ahead and move more money from stock funds to bonds funds this weekend. Also pointed my weekly investment from stock to bond funds.
I will look at the conditions in June to see what I will do, then Oct again for that Fall/Winter season.
The Virus will determine how much risk I take.
“Computer algorithms dont have emotions.”
Good one
LOL.
Yeah. Sure thing.
I think the market has been compromised by the big time hedge fund managers and their computer watch dogs who sell to initiate down days and then buy back in to initiate up days. Tom Streyer became a billionaire as a hedge fund manager.
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