Woodstock Occurred in the Middle of a Pandemic

American Enterprise for Economic Research ^ | 5/1/2020 | Jeffrey A. Tucker

[daniel1212]

Thanks, and for further perspective:

How did America endure (by the grace of God): Major modern influenza pandemics: Basic source is from Wikipedia, but with specific US data added as well as for the 2017-18 flu season, with other words in [brackets] being added, and formatting improved, while reference numbers are removed for clarity (see original for such)

Name	[Main]Date	U.S. population	World pop.	Sub-type	Reproduction rate	Infected W.W. (est.)	U.S. Deaths	[Tot.] Deaths world-wide	U.S. fatality rate	[World] Case fatality rate	Pandemic severity	I also added this column: During the 2017-2018 flu season the the % of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks, and exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. For this 2019-20 season, the CDC reports (March 28) that deaths due to P&I was 7.4%, which is above the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. The increase is due to an increase in pneumonia deaths rather than influenza deaths and may be associated with COVID-19. However, the CDC reported that the flu rate is low even though the percentage of pneumonia and influenza is above the epidemic threshold of 7.0% for week 15. And here it listed 52,285 deaths for Week 13 and 49,292 deaths for Week 14 as of 4-18) ) for Influenza Deaths and Pneumonia Deaths combined. And note that some of the latter can be assigned to Covid.
1889–90 flu pandemic [Russian influenza]	1889–90	62,979,766	1.53 billion	Likely H3N8 or H2N2	2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[33]	20–60% (300–900 million)	[13,000**]	1 million	N/A	0.10–0.28%	2
1918 flu	1918–20	103,208,000	1.80 billion	H1N1	1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)	33% (500 million) or >56% (>1 billion)	[500,000 to 675,000]	20–100 million	N/A	2–3% or ~4%, or ~10% ~10%	5
Asian flu	1957–58	171,984,130	2.90 billion	H2N2	1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)	>17% (>500 million)	[116,000]	1–4 million	N/A	<0.2% [0.6%]	2
Hong Kong flu	1968–69	200,706,052	3.53 billion	H3N2	1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)	>14% (>500 million)	[100,000]	1–4 million	N/A	<0.2%	2
2009 flu pandemic	2009–10	308,745,538	6.85 billion	H1N1/09	1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)	11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)	[12,469]	151,700–575,400	[0.02%]	0.03%	1
2017–18 flu season*	2017–2018	325,084,756	7.53 billion	H1N1 / H3N2	1.53	45 million	[61,099 (prior est. 80,000)]	N/A		N/A	N/A
Typical seasonal flu	Every year		7.75 billion	A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ...	1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)	5–15% (340 million – 1 billion) 3–11% or 5–20% (240 million–1.6 billion)	[12,000 to 61,000]	290,000–650,000/year	N/A	<0.1%	1
2019–20 seasonal flu	2019–20	330,541,013	7.75 billion	A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2)	[1.4 to about 5]	11%[t 2] (800 million[t 2])	[Over 24,000 as of March 28]	0.45-1.2 million[t 2])	N/A	ongoing	1
COVID-19	2019–20	330,541,013	7.75 billion			[3,426,413 5-2 11am]	[66,000 approx. as of 5-2]	[240,500 approx. as of 5-2 11am]	N/A
[Notes * P+I deaths at or above epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. **as should be assumed in other cases, death rates include those due to complications accompanying the flu. We have the CDC morality rates for the flu per state for 2017-18 (13 states above 17 per 100,000 total population) and for Covid here (only 8 states above 17 per 100,000 people, as of April 24). And according to estimates, between 61,000 to 80,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 season, the latter being the highest death toll in 40 years. During that 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html It is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. Meanwhile a study in Iceland reports that as of April 11, the country has “tested 10% of its population for coronavirus - a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world -” and that “about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic” (show no symptoms), which is “a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.” Another report is that those who are most vulnerable to death from Covid-19 are the aged with certain other heath conditions, thus 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older. Then again, America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day (2017: https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states), while (for perspective) about 90 people die each day in the US from crashes, which are among the over 7,000 Americans who die every day in the US from a wide range of causes. (https://www.weisspaarz.com/leading-causes-death-by-state/) Other infectious diseases include: Severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and the mortality rate for SARS, that killed nearly 800 people, is estimated at 1 % by the C C, and with a R rating of 5. MERS, which stands for Middle East re respiratory syn drone, had a mortality rate of 5% and a R rating of 2]. Measles: Mortality rate: unclear; R rating: 12 to 18 Ebola Mortality rate: exceeds 50% R rating: about 2 Source: .cnbc.com]

Supplemental: Mortality rates (death rate per year, 2002 worldwide[4]) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate)

[fireman15]

Show me where it’s disproved, Flu-Bro.
Copy and paste, post the links, show the data.

I have absolutely no expectation that you will have any ability to understand what the significance of this graph is or even what it is trying to illustrate... but here goes. The

Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 29, 2020.

My only hope for you, Travis is that you will recognize that the downward trend is good.

[McGruff]

Aw Jeez, not the we're all gonna die graph again.

[fireman15]

From your chart, “America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day...”

It is not very clear that the author is talking about abortions.

[McGruff]

I survived Woodstock but I was 100 miles away from those stinking NY City hippies. I didn't hear about it until weeks after (or I may have gone cruising for chicks).

[Carl Vehse]

[ScottfromNJ]

“Wuhan Flu has killed 60,000 Americans in six weeks.”

With lockdowns too.

[daniel1212]

Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 Americans over the course of a full year.

However, did that, or the 116,000 Americans that died as a result of the Asian flu (when the US pop. was about half it is today), see the level of testing (upon which estimates are built) that COVID has?

Wuhan Flu has killed 60,000 Americans in six weeks.

6 weeks would make the first U.S. death by COVID to be about the middle of March, versus on February 6, though reports increased as it spread and the number of tests increased. In any case, even if deaths by COVID attain to or surpass the levels of the the Asian and HK flu infections, you would also have to factor in the % of the population to make them equal.

Yet even if the COVID death rate per million is equal to or surpasses them, the issue remains that we did not see comparative restrictions with the prior pandemics proportionate to their death rate per million. Their simply is nothing close to it, which is what I think the basic argument of the article is.

[Carl Vehse]

[McGruff]

The Chart lady pinpoints the number of Kung Flu deaths expected.

Based upon her scientific modeling.

[ealgeone]

Vietnam has become the talking point in regards to our losses there and the Chinaflu.

[MuttTheHoople]

[JimRed]

The point is: between a totalitarian lockdown and doing nothing at all, there should be a better solution.

There is. Quarantine the sick and known carriers. Test probable carriers and treat them according to results. Encourage those at greatest risk to self-quarantine and offer assistance in doing so. Don't prevent the rest of us from living a relatively normal life.

Put the damned basketball hoops back up, unlock the skateboard park and the boat launch, open my pub and the boardwalk. Let ME decide how safe I choose to play it.

[budj]

"...Let ME decide how safe I choose to play..."

I suppose you want your Constitution back, too>

[motor_racer]

We are seeing the consequences of the “chickification” of the American population.

We live in fear instead of fighting.

[JimRed]

The liberals’ answer to this information about 1968-69 will be “So, you want 100,000 to die this time, because you are a racist-sexist-homophobe-bigot-fascist-capitalist-Trump lover?”

[CodeToad]

“Wuhan Flu has killed 60,000 Americans in six weeks.”

First, we don’t know it is 60,000. The lying is rampant.

Second, it’s been far longer than 6 weeks.

[NorthWoody]

It hasn’t killed 60,000. The reasons that number can’t be trusted or verified have been pointed out to you many times.

Whoever you’re being paid by is certainly getting their money’s worth, and you end up looking like a psycho freak.

Hope it’s worth it to you.

[newbie 10-21-00]

Do some research and you’ll find that even the CDC has reclassed some 50k of those to flu, pneumonia, other coronavirus

[daniel1212]

From your chart, “America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day...” It is not very clear that the author is talking about abortions.

But if you simply click on the link that accompanies it, or are at all familiar with the issue and thus the source, then that would be easily seen. However, this is FR, and I assume most would know what I am referring to.