Posted on 03/14/2020 4:18:31 PM PDT by Lazamataz
Good job. NH in the rural areas is much, much safer. Take care!
Wow, I’m impressed...you had the courage to hazard guess. Travis McGee lacked your courage, he danced around it.
And I also hope your estimates turn out to be too high.
The numbers in 3 weeks may look like S. Korea -Chart here with 9K infected and 800 recovered and 75 dead --> S. Korea has 1/7th the population of the USA but has taken stricter measures - the Italian case is 17K infected and 1.8K dead and 2.3 K recovered with a population 1/6th that of the USA --> so the USA numbers would be between these by the first week of April --> so between 525 and 10,800 --> I'm predicting 5K (and as I said, I hope I'm wrong)
Take care - wash your hands and limit physical contact.
I do believe that we need to take precautions - not panic, this isn't the black plague and we have the means and knowledge to minimize this
Italy screwed up (hindsight is always 20 20) by:
1. Not limiting contact - they gave kids two weeks off and they went and partied at discos etc. and on holidays - spreading the disease
2. they didn't change their ways (lots of kissing, physical contact)
It's the same in Spain
But Look at Finland -- 244 cases and the finns HATE physical contact closer than 5 feet :)
Also - I look at the numbers for India (which has much lower hygiene than other areas) and it has just 2 deaths and 160 cases, all of which were contracted abroad
This tells me that this is a question of limiting physical contact, waiting for hot weather and protecting the old.
You're looking at the exponential curve and assuming that the growth rate will stay the same.
It won't - and we have the numbers from other countries
The numbers plateau after a few weeks - and if the country takes harsh measures, it plateaus earlier
Italy had a 4% lethality rate 2 weeks ago, now it is 1.4%
We cannot extrapolate the exponential curve that it will continuously grow at the same rate.
I "preach" we should have caution but not panic -- and that graph is pure panic and false statistics.
We are on the email list for a local, community newsletter, and while they are not densely populated at all, they are canceling virtually everything, voluntarily.
They are exercising extreme wisdom and caution in trying to prevent the spread of this in their area.
What we are trying to decide is what to do as we are still here in CNY and finishing fixing our house to sell.
My plan, for the moment, is to go through EVERYTHING we can and get rid of everything we do not need or want, and to pack up anything that we deem is essential for us to have and take it with us next trip. That way, if by some unfortunate circumstances, there are national state to state travel restrictions, and we get stuck there and can’t come back for a while, we will have what we need.
LOL!!!!
My opinion - you should go up to NH right now, like today and stay there until warmer weather. Food etc. will come, but the danger is the contact with other people.
Also note - for religious services (as I know from our interactions :) ) - you can and should still go, just exercise precaution: everyone to wash their hands and ideally wear masks (to prevent infecting others unconsciously - masks aren’t going to protect you but rather prevent you infecting others) and limit physical contact, no handshakes.
I second Cronos advice.
Do not under-rate the spiritual side to this.
The cancelling of Mass is a really, really bad sign in my opinion.
On a certain level, that this follows the Vatican-Chinese accord and Italy is now getting to experience something of what Chinese Catholics do, and not many Catholics are willing to back Cardinal Zen against the Pope publicly makes what is happening in Italy and spreading through the first world just.
This was the last week with public Sunday Mass in our isolated town of 1200. The final Mass closed with a penitential procession from the Polish parish to the Irish parish and back, with about 10% of the town participating. Sunday Mass will be streamed and then broadcast over the local radio station next week, and the pastor is hoping (expecting) a big uptick in weekday Mass attendance—which already is at 5-12%
Everyone can benefit from a come-to-Jesus moment, and I think that this is one, especially for the hierarchy of the Catholic Church. That more Cardinals and Francis are starting to differ publicly is a good sign, but I don’t expect this thing to let up until we have a new Pope.
Sorry for all you non-Catholics to be stuck on earth with a highly flawed Church that is in some ways approaching nadir that needs to be ploughed through.
The governments in different countries banned ANY gatherings of > certain number of people —> Czechia said 100, the UK 250, Poland 50.
But in various countries they have kept different options — smaller masses etc.
note that in India they are doing it to temples, mosques, gurudwaras etc. - even in Iran and Saudia they are stopping it.
and for Christian countries - the same precautions are being done by the denominations
I made my peace with God a long time ago through Jesus Christ.
While some non-Catholics certainly need your sympathy, I am good to go whatever the outcome.
And I certainly concur with your assessment of the spiritual side of this.
I read the book, The Harbinger many years ago and I know that Jonathan Cahn has taken a lot of heat over the years, but he preaches a straight up gospel message of repentance and turning to Christ.
That aside, the premise of the book is that 9/11 was a harbinger, a warning, that God was removing His hand of protection from this country for its sin and turning from Him. After reading that, I’ve started to see other events in a different light. Things like mass shootings, and other natural disasters.
And also this situation we find ourselves in now.
The point Cahn was making is that as God removes His divine hand of protection, it allows crises such as these things to get our attention and focus on Him .
There seems to be some quirk of human nature that ignores God when things are humming along smoothly, but when something bad happens, we seek Him out, instead of seeking Him out when things are good, just for the sake of Himself.
Anyhow, I am praying that God would use this event to result in a mass revival, a mass turning to Him and people coming into, or back into right relationship with Him.
I would prefer that people do this voluntarily than needing the force of the government to impose it on them.
And the more people do it out of caution and courtesy for others, the less likely we will need the government to make the decision for us.
I went to Walmart yesterday. It looked like a hurricane hit the canned goods section.
I think my cat has that prostrate cancer ... he sleeps twenty two hour a day.
As do I. HA asked for my estimate. Below is my reply:
"
As for an estimate, there are too many unknowns to make an accurate prediction. Too much depends on the actions taken (i.e. chinese style lockdown, etc), and how fast scientists can develop a cure, etc.
Don't hold me to it, and barring a mutation that makes it more or less virulent, it could to be anywhere from 10 to 40 times deadlier than the flu. So please, please, please take this serious. "
I try not to make predictions - too many unknowns. What I have tried to do, is warn those who will listen to take this serious and to prepare for incoming based on what we're seeing take place in other countries, and based on data/charts I post (I didn't create them) from about three sources which I linked to most of my posts. One source is John Hopkins.
I sincerely hope your numbers above are correct. If so, it will be due to our taking this seriously, and the quarantines being put in place now!
The numbers in 3 weeks may look like S. Korea -Chart here with 9K infected and 800 recovered and 75 dead -->
Based on JHU data, as of this post, we have 4,093 confirmed, 69 deaths, and only 12 recovered in the US.
Unfortunately, I fear the death toll will far exceed your projection of 75 in three weeks, as you say above. What worries me is the low numbers of recovered (more deaths than those who've recovered). I hope this isn't an indicator of a more virulent strain we're dealing with in the US.
Finally, we're past the warning others stage. It's here and we all have to get through this together.
I had already heard about the Triage Tents in the parking lot outside the ER.
A Failure of Civility is $342.00. I remember when it was like $45. I liked it so much I bought a copy for my neighbor.
That is some Gaw-Damn price gouging.
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