Winter 2019-20 Outlook: Colder Than Average North, East; Warmer Than Average..

The Weather Company ^ | 11/13/19 | Brian Donegan

[daniel1212]

A warmer than usual winter is forecast for much of the southern and western United States, but the northern and eastern U.S. will be shivering, according to an updated winter outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Additionally, NOAA's winter outlook indicates that parts of the flood-weary Northern Plains and Midwest might see a wetter than average December through February.

Based on The Weather Company's outlook, temperatures are expected to be near or above average for much of the South and West, but parts of the North and East won't be so lucky. Temperatures there are projected to be near or below average.

Areas from southwestern Oregon into California, the Great Basin, Desert Southwest and southwestern Texas are forecast to have warmer than average temperatures during the three-month period from December through February. Colder than average temperatures are predicted from northeastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, far northwestern Wisconsin and the far western Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

A broad area from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies, Southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast will likely have temperatures that are near or slightly warmer than average this winter. Meanwhile, the northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Midwest and East can expect near or slightly below average temperatures for the December-to-February period as a whole.

January

Colder than average temperatures will return to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes while expanding into parts of far northern New England in January.

Areas from the northern Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley, Southeast and much of the Northeast may see near or slightly colder than average temperatures.

Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to be much above average from Central and Southern California into southern Nevada and parts of Arizona. Above average temperatures will likely extend from southern Oregon and Northern California into the Great Basin, southern Rockies and western and southern Texas.

Near or slightly above average temperatures are predicted from the Northwest into the central Rockies, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Florida.

February

February may have the coldest temperatures of the winter across parts of the North.

Below average temperatures are likely from the northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. The most anomalous cold is expected across North Dakota, northern Minnesota, far northwestern Wisconsin and the far western Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Warmer than average temperatures are predicted from southeastern California through the Desert Southwest and much of Texas.

[Excerpts. Images and more at link

[daniel1212]

In contrast, per usual (see here ) it seems that the NOAA cannot help but predict warmer and much warmer than average temps for most of the US. From Oct. 17:

The NOAA statesthat "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter," and instead predicts, "Winter Outlook: Warmer than average for many, wetter in the North Drought improvement expected in the Southeast.

The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

Abnormally dry conditions are present across much of the Southern U.S., with areas of the most severe drought in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, central Texas and parts of the Southeast.

Drought development is expected to occur in parts of central California. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north

Here was the 3.5 prediction from the NOAA in August 15 for Sept. thru Nov.:

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And the very extended forecast made at that time:

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AccuWeather likewise predicted on Oct. 24,

Despite a few cold spells across the Northeast during autumn, winter’s chill won’t arrive until at least the end of 2019.

Northeast

AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, “I think you’re going to see a touch of winter come in in December. But I think its full force will hold out until after the new year.”

Once the wintry weather does get underway, an active season will be in store.

“Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said. Above-normal snowfall could be in store for areas from New York City to Boston.

Southeast

While the Northeast braces for snow and cold, the Southeast is more likely to experience a wet couple of months.

Water temperatures from the Gulf of Mexico to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts are running higher than normal, Pastelok said.

As storms move into the east early on in the season, the warm water could generate a significant amount of rain.

North/Central Plains and Midwest

Last January the polar vortex unleashed a record cold snap across much of the U.S., but at least for the first part of winter, the polar vortex isn’t expected to make a debut, according to Pastelok...

Instead, cold air that could reach the Midwest at times early in the season is likely to originate from a Siberian Connection, rather than straight from the North Pole, and that has implications on just how cold it will get.

However, conditions may change and allow the polar vortex and accompanying Arctic air to bust loose later during the winter, he said.

Pastelok predicts near- to below-normal snowfall across the northern Plains, with near- to above-normal totals in the central Plains...

Southwest and California

A cool, unsettled pattern is in store for the Southwest and California this season.

“At times, these areas could also have back-and-forth conditions, between some periods of dry weather and some active weather in the early winter, which is not really typical,” he said.

In California, the winter will yield enough precipitation to stave off drought conditions into the spring. More at link: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-2020-us-winter-forecast/592125

Of course the Old Farmer’s Almanac is part of the collection of weather predictions, which states

In the U.S., prepare to shiver with below-normal winter temperatures from the Heartland westward to the Pacific and in the Desert Southwest, Pacific Southwest, and Hawaii but above normal winter temperatures elsewhere. The cold will continue through Valentine’s Day—providing the perfect excuse to stay indoors and snuggle! But be warned: Winter will not be over yet!

For some parts of the country, frigid and frosty conditions will last well into spring, bringing little relief to the winter-weary. “This could feel like the never-ending winter, particularly in the Midwest and east to the Ohio Valley and Appalachians, where wintery weather will last well into March and even through the first days of spring,” says Almanac editor Janice Stillman.

Finally we have some commentary from FITSNews:

Frigid Winter On Tap For 2020

How will it fit into the debate over climate change?

“So ubiquitous is the belief in man-made global warming (a.k.a. anthropogenic climate change) that to speak so much as a syllable against it is to open oneself up to hostility and ridicule,” we wrote in a post two years ago. “Climate change ‘deniers’ in our society are derided as tin foil hat-wearing troglodytes, unenlightened rubes with no business participating in the marketplace of ideas.”..

Irrespective of what the data may suggest …

We also believe it is important to maintain a healthy skepticism of those seeking to make acceptance of their views compulsory. Especially when they want to make you pick up the check....

Yet as these definitive, increasingly dire pronouncements of a warming globe are being made by various governmental entities … forecasters are calling for a brutally cold winter in 2019-2020. One author, Michael Snyder of TMIN, is predicting a “catastrophically cold winter” – one caused in part by the sun entering a so-called “grand minimum” (a.k.a. “solar minimum”) phase.

[SkyDancer]

So climate change and global warming are selective.

[albie]

Pesky climate change. Winter is cold. Summer is hot. As a result, we’re all going to die in what...10.5 months now?

[SkyDancer]

Dunno but that global warming is going to freeze people in Chicago, that’s fer sure.

[hsmomx3]

A few months ago they predicted near or below normal temps for the desert southwest and now they are changing their tune to above normal?

I’ll believe it all when the time comes.

[Alas Babylon!]

It seems like the farther North you go, the colder it gets!

Wow! This new weather forecasting sure is smart!

[JPJones]

“Yet as these definitive, increasingly dire pronouncements of a warming globe are being made by various governmental entities … forecasters are calling for a brutally cold winter in 2019-2020. One author, Michael Snyder of TMIN, is predicting a “catastrophically cold winter” – one caused in part by the sun entering a so-called “grand minimum” (a.k.a. “solar minimum”) phase. “

There’s a few factors going on:

Cohen 2014: Expect “long-term, large scale winter cooling” in certain regions due to the arctic ice melting and re-settling as land snow cover (i.e negative feedback, cooling)

Solar minimum, which you mentioned. Cooing.

But a slight El-nino, warming/wet. So possible heavy snow in the North/northeast.

And of course it’s possible we’re at the end of the Holocene, which means global temps drop by 6C and stay that way for 100,000 years.

[Dr.Deth]

Ski resorts out west are opening early en masse. Lots of cold and lots of snow.

[crusty old prospector]

I view the displays on their site often. I don’t think I have ever seen the three month out forecast have any place cooler than normal. The map is usually colored orange or red across most of the country. It fits the narrative.

[Flick Lives]

It seems like the farther North you go, the colder it gets!

—

This has never happened before! It’s global warming, or cooling. No, it’s a climate catastrophe!

[caww]

I heard over the summer we’d be having a very cold and likely stormy winter here in Pa. The jet stream likes to often wobble through my area so you never know how bad it’s going to be. not unusual to get slammed and equally so skirted by storms.

[daniel1212]

So climate change and global warming are selective.

So it seems, and esp. the focus of the media. And whose predictions have a dismal tract record, while being very silent on the positive effects warming brings.

[Robert DeLong]

A warmer than usual winter is forecast for much of the southern states

Can't prove it by me. It's been cold, and we are only starting into the cold period here, which is earlier than usual. We'll see how it play sout. But I am hoping for warmer weather.

[daniel1212]

A few months ago they predicted near or below normal temps for the desert southwest and now they are changing their tune to above normal? I’ll believe it all when the time comes.

That depends in which prognosticator you listen to. The NOAA seems to always predict warmer than average, or at least never below average in extended forecasts.

Right now it is trumpeting Globe had its 2nd-hottest October and year to date on record Arctic sea ice coverage also shrank to a record low last month

The "record" goes back just 140 years (1880).

Nothing about our much below normal November in the NE so far which they failed to predict in extended forecasts.

[SkyDancer]

I guess it’s all about the criteria. Global warming is the answer to peasants and climate change the answer for the intellectual.

[daniel1212]

I view the displays on their site often. I don’t think I have ever seen the three month out forecast have any place cooler than normal. The map is usually colored orange or red across most of the country. It fits the narrative.

Same report here, with the only below average forecast being the 1 month or less forecast. This "revised" one has been right so far:

This one from Nov. 15 is for Nov. 30 thru Dec. 13:

[redangus]

I just read on ‘Ice Age Now’ that West Hudson Bay has above average early ice for the third year in a row.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

For the past year, we’ve been hearing that the Idaho Panhandle was going to get a 200 inch snowfall with bitter cold this coming winter. Seems to have fizzled in all these reports.

[SumProVita]

What’s Joe Bastardi’s take on the outlook? :-)

[daniel1212]

What’s Joe Bastardi’s take on the outlook? :-)

What I saw was not that detailed or concise. The summation made August 2019 was that,

• Plenty of potential for a severe winter.
• East will have to overcome early warmth.
• SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15.
• Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal.
• Snowfall should be generous.

The conditions in the oceans around the U.S. are ripe for major arctic outbreaks, but the early season, as has been the habit of late, is likely to start warm in the East. The worst-case scenario is a brutally cold old-fashioned winter. Precipitation should be plentiful again in the East given, the natural fight between the cold air to the west and the warm oceans to the east.

The West looks warm, though the Euro would argue that the Pioneer is onto something, sticking more cold into the southern Rockies. Buckle up, there is going to be plenty of cold around with January-March being colder against the normals in the East than December-February. If you start late with the winter, you are liable to end late.

https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast