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To: nathanbedford

The Chinese had a two year window of opportunity based upon a peak of strength and readiness. They are being countered by game theorist to achieve a strategic stalemate.

From the Chinese vantage point, it appeared there was a good possibility to win without unlimited confrontation. They cannot accept not-winning, cannot contradict the long-strategy position formulated by their senior party members.

We on the other hand, are not playing our hand toward achieving what they envision as a win. Skewed age/sex demographics have longer term consequences. Their slide will quietly gain momentum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIRT6xRQkf8


19 posted on 09/21/2019 9:43:27 PM PDT by Ozark Tom
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To: Ozark Tom
Let me suggest a contrarian view which might or might not play out:

Contrary to what most economists and analysts tell us, a large population, or even a growing population, might be more harmful than beneficial in the new age of AI and robots. Indeed, if you're a military analyst you might come to regard a huge population mass of like 1.4 billion to be a burden rather than a strategic advantage. What a huge target! How do you feed it, how do you control it, what happens when he gets out of control?

If we want to talk about national wealth, much depends on how we define it but if we define it as the mass of goods divided by the number of supplicants for those goods we begin to ask, if our GNP is produced by artificial intelligence and robots, do we need more than a billion people to increase production? If we are dividing the sum of production by the population, would not a more manageable population make us richer rather than poorer?

If we are entering a technological age in which wealth at the level of conception is done by a very few brilliant human minds while the bulk of production is done by smart machines, how do we distribute the wealth? If we don't distribute the wealth, do we risk revolution? If we do distribute the wealth will we certainly kill off incentive?

It seems to me these questions become all the more intractable the more disparity between the elite and the consuming class is increased by virtue of size of population.

Most of the arguments in favor of large population, or more intelligently, of growing population, center on the need to create markets for consumption. In an age in which 3D printing is making us rethink the entire concept of economies of scale, should we not also rethink this maxim?

Finally, in Japan the age of robots may well make the geisha class redundant. Why not in China where there exists a disparity of number between the sexes?

Okay, perhaps that is taking this robot business too far.


20 posted on 09/22/2019 6:56:15 AM PDT by nathanbedford (attack, repeat, attack! Bull Halsey)
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