Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming

Burning Platform ^ | June 4, 2019 | John Wilder

[vannrox]

Way back in 1998, I ended up with one of the neatest jobs that I had – assessing risks to a major corporation.  The Internet was new at work, and I was being paid to research potential disasters.  It was so interesting and so much fun I felt guilty.  In researching disasters and risk, I came across Y2K.  For those that don’t remember, there was a concern that, as a result of programmers only using two digits to store year information in computers, that many computers and computer programs would cease to function when the calendar flipped over to 00.

There were multiple websites and personalities that were writing about Y2K, and one that I went to from time to time was Cory Hamasaki’s Y2K Weather Report.  Hamasaki was a programmer (he has since passed away) and he had an inside perspective of the ongoing work that was required to keep the systems working.  As a result of his insider knowledge he bought an AR, a lot of food, and spent New Year’s Eve at his remote cabin.

Obviously, the systems kept working.

Not my original.  And I’m sorry.

We live, however, in spicy times, with the potential for them becoming even spicier (I got the Spicy Time meme from Western Rifle Shooters (LINK), which really should be on your daily reading list).  I’ve written several articles about the potential for Civil War, and studied and thought quite a bit about it.  As such, this is the inaugural edition of John Wilder’s Civil War II Weather Report.  I anticipate putting it out monthly.  This first issue will probably be a bit longer than later issues, since I’m putting the framework together and explaining the background.

I’m attempting to put together a framework that measures where we are on the continuum between peace and war.  I’ll even try to develop some sort of measures that show if the level of danger is increasing or decreasing.  Civil wars don’t happen all at once, and like a strong storm, they require the atmosphere to be right.  A weather report is probably a good metaphor.

If you haven’t seen it, the guy with the trident was the weatherman in Anchorman.  And when he has a trident?  People die.

So, to review the future, let’s start by looking at Civil War I so we understand what happened, and what the potential differences are.

Civil War I was:

• Based on philosophical differences – the views of the people, North and South were pretty similar, except that the Northerners were descended from Puritans who sailed on the Mayflower, and the Southerners were descended from the Norman conquerors that took England in 1066 but got booted out after having lost a war in England. Although the North and South were the same people, more or less, with the same heritage, there were enough differences to lead to a war.  And it was a doozy.

Civil War II is different because:

• Certainly we are not the same people today compared to when we generally unified ethnically. Civil War II will likely be fought on the basis of conflicting culture, identity and ideology.

Civil War I was:

• Fought by armies, mostly, with identified geographical centers.

Civil War II is different because:

• At the early stages, at least, Civil War II won’t be fought by armies, and there won’t be defined geographical concentrations. Armies are better at killing people and breaking stuff, but irregulars are way better at atrocity.  Expect the initial stages of hot war to be filled with some pretty rough stuff.

Civil War I was:

• Characterized by a general adherence to the rules of war, though there were some war crimes on either side.

Civil War II is different because:

• There has been a tendency of civil wars in this century to have increasing levels of atrocity during the war. This will continue.

Civil War I was:

• Fought with the intent of reunification (by the North), and separation (by the South). The basic desire of the North was to reunify the country, admittedly under more comprehensive Federal control.  Reconstruction sucked, but the goal was a single country.  That’s why all the Confederate statues were tolerated, and even encouraged.

Civil War II is different because:

• I expect whoever wins to pursue a policy of revenge at the end, especially if it’s the Communists. This is founded based on every single communist revolution ever.  The end of Civil War I occurred in a growing young country with the opportunity to move West.  Now?  Whoever wins will cleanse whatever areas they take.

Civil War I was:

• Fought by organized, elected governments.

Civil War II is different because:

• I’m thinking that one side might be a Caesar-type leading a partial military coalition versus Leftist irregulars, but I might be wrong on this one.

I decided to see what other studies had been done about more recent civil wars, and found that James Fearon and David Laitin (from Stanford) did a study in 2003 on civil wars during the 20^th Century (LINK).  Here’s what they found:

• Civil Wars had a median duration of six years
• Sub-Saharan Africa: 34 wars
• Asia: 33 wars
• North Africa and the Middle East: 17 wars
• Latin America: 15 wars
• Eastern Europe/Former Soviet Union: 13 wars
• The West: 2 wars

Why do civil wars develop?  It’s my bet that political scientists are like economists – six political scientists will generate 15 incorrect theories over coffee each morning, although I, for one, have no idea why we would think we would have a more stable country if we import people who keep having civil wars all of the time.  Fearon and Laitin came up with three different types of civil wars:

• Ethnic: “You other people suck.”
• Nationalist: “We want our own country, because you other people suck.”
• Insurgent: “We want to be the boss, because you suck.”

Okay, I don’t know who the originator was of this meme, but it still cracks me up.

Civil wars were non-existent in ethnically homogeneous and rich countries during the time period of Fearon and Laitin’s study.  As the United States was essentially ethnically homogeneous and rich during Civil War I, you can see that, just like the Revolution, something unique was going on here.  We decided to fight over principles.

Fearon and Laitin had several graphs that pointed out that increased wealth makes up for a portion of ethnic diversity – wealthier, non-homogeneous societies were less likely to go to war than poorer non-homogeneous ones.  Oddly, the very poorest ($48 to $800 a year) societies were less likely to go to war than societies that made just a little more money.  I guess just living was tough enough and going to war against other people who also had nothing was pointless.

One conclusion that Laitin and Fearon found was that civil war onset was no less frequent in a democracy.  Discrimination is not linked to civil war.  Income inequality is not linked to civil war.  Grievances aren’t the cause of civil war – they’re caused by civil wars.  What are risk the factors?

• New nations. I guess they haven’t developed the “don’t kill the president” tradition yet.
• People can hide in mountains.  I guess.
• Higher (absolute) population numbers. I told you big cities were bad.
• Oil exporting.
• High proportion of young males.
• Exporting commodities – risk seemed to peak at about 30% of GDP coming from commodity export.

Okay, not directly on point, but my primary export is memes.

So where does the United States stand as a country today?  I guess I’d throw out the thought that the first prerequisite for Civil War II is economic stress.  Why?  Average Joe won’t pick up an AR to go kill people in the next county if Joe has beer in the cooler and another episode of Naked and Afraid® next week.  If Joe has a job and a wife and a mortgage, well, there just won’t be action.  I meant war, silly.  Get your mind out of the gutter.  Our risk now is relatively low based on economics.

The United States is developing a higher absolute population.  That puts us at risk.

With immigration, the United States is forming a higher proportion of young males.  That puts us at risk.

State weakness is generally correlated with civil wars.  I’m torn on this one.  On one hand, we have the largest number of laws ever, along with a very large enforcement mechanism.  On the other?  Laws, both state and Federal are increasingly just ignored.  Victor Davis Hanson describes this paradox in California (LINK).

Nearby civil wars are associated with having a civil war.  Latin America is a civil war factory . . . so we’re at risk.

From the above five predictors of civil war, we have four of them.  Obviously this doesn’t tell the whole story.  The United States has a peaceful history, and, unlike a less established nation, the general populace is going to assume that today was good, so tomorrow will be pretty good, too.  And, generally that’s a good way to predict the future:  tomorrow will look like today.  Building the conditions for civil wars generally take years and what was abnormal becomes normal and tolerated as time goes by.

I’m going to attempt to try to make a metric showing the rise in various societal factors that I think might lead to civil war.  Some of the obvious are:

• Economic metrics – economic growth, unemployment, average wealth.
• Organized violence metrics – news of riots, other organized violence and protests.
• Political instability metrics – use of the term “impeach”, “civil war”, “electoral college.”
• Sites banned – numbers of political speakers silenced.
• Number of illegal immigrants per month. This shows greater economic stress or greater problems at their actual home.

Yeah, you just can’t add the North and the South together and end up with a Civil War.  Unless you do it in binary, then you could have a Bipolar War?

I’ll then combine them into an index.  If you have other items that you think can be tracked and should be tracked, let me know, and I may incorporate them, especially if they’re easy find and to incorporate, because I’m lazy.

Finally, Civil War won’t show up all at once, it may take years to get people to the idea that war is better than dealing with your weird neighbor by going into your house and watching a marathon of YouTube® videos where people turn $40 of propane and a bunch of aluminum cans into $10 worth of aluminum ingots.  It’s easier than fighting, right?

Following is my take on the steps that will lead to actual civil war.  I humbly call it the Wilder Countdown to Civil War II™.

1. Things are going well.
2. People begin to create groups.
3. People begin to look for preferential treatment.
4. Opposing ideology to the prevailing civic ideology is introduced and spread.
5. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
6. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
7. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
8. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures.  Just in case.
9. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
10. Open War.

I bolded number six.  That’s where I think we are right now.  Violence is occurring, but it’s not monthly, so I don’t think we’re at step seven.  Yet.  And I think we can live at step nine for a long time as long as we don’t have the bottom drop out of the economy.  Might there be some trigger that takes us to nine in a hurry?  Sure.  But I’m willing to bet that we see it take a few years, rather than a few months.  My bet is no sooner than 2024, but I’ve been wrong before, way back in 1989.

This is a project where I’m not only very open to contributions and anonymous contributions, I’m actively soliciting them.  Let me know if you’ve got commentary, criticism, news stories, or suggestions to make issue two (probably in early July) better, either down below or at my email, movingnorth@gmail.com

While we can’t predict catastrophic storms with 100% accuracy, it’s probably about time that someone started looking at the horizon to see what they could see.  Because I see what might be a storm coming.

[UB355]

I remember the Y2K hoax

[MuttTheHoople]

CW2 will resemble the American Revolution, which was a real civil war, with atrocities especially in the South.

[dynachrome]

I think that #7 at the end of the article is where Chicago and other cities are at.

[dp0622]

Will Canada close their doors?

[dljordan]

My wife had NPR on this morning and they were calling for the government to investigate ‘Right Wing Extremism’ and how Trump is promoting right wing violence. They want the FBI to go after anyone they don’t like.

[wastoute]

Just my personal opinion but I say if Barr let’s the coup conspirators walk the government of the USA is finished. The libtards have been trying to Cloward Piven it to death for 50 years or more. The thing that saved it was “conservatives” trying to “save Our Country”. Once we realize it ain’t our country anymore and our hope is for what comes after the USA there won’t be ANYBODY who wants to do anything to “save the government of the USA”. At that point it’s over. Again, just my humble opinion, but how can a government survive when NO ONE wants it?

[ScottinVA]

7. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.

Any cities with “leaders” who tolerate ANTIFA violence - case in point, Portland and Seattle - are already at this point.

[mjp]

Northerners were descended from Puritans who sailed on the Mayflower, and the Southerners were descended from the Norman conquerors that took England in 1066 but got booted out after having lost a war in England.

The yankees were mostly from East Anglia, which was an Anglo-saxon area conquered and settled by Vikings. Virginians were settled mostly by people from Wessex, which was an area where the Anglo-saxons defeated the Vikings.

From this perspective, the American civil war, in a way was a continuation of the War between Anglo-Saxons and Vikings,

[VanDeKoik]

It will be like the Troubles in N. Ireland.

No one is going to tolerate any type of mass organized armies roaming around, causing chaos.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

As one who managed Y2K projects in the utility industry, let me be the first to tell you it was no hoax. If we had not marshaled the industry and spent huge amounts of money fixing the problem 1995 to 1999, you WOULD have been in the dark for a long time. It was very real. The reason you didn’t experience anything is hundreds of thousands of professionals in every industry worked diligently to fix the systems prior to the big day. BTW, thank you for paying for that big project — its cost was buried in every good and service you bought.

Now, can you get back on topic, UB355? The topic is CW II, not Y2K.

Thanks for posting, vannrox. Good and thoughtful article. Regarding his “steps that will lead to actual civil war,” #6 (”People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology”) really resonated with me. My wife and I are absolutely disgusted with California and bought a house in Northern Idaho for many reasons. His #6 was a factor in our decision.

[VanDeKoik]

“From this perspective, the American civil war, in a way was a continuation of the War between Anglo-Saxons and Vikings, “

Yeah, the whole analogy presented is just ridiculously goofy.

[Leaning Right]

On a scale of 0 to 10 (where 10 is a Civil War very soon) we are, at most, at a 2.

Most folks in the U.S., are well-fed, and have plenty of toys. The furnace works, and the air conditioner works. The government is often heavy-handed, but it is not tsarist-oppressive. And the military is content.

True, there are plenty of folks who are upset about a lot of things. But how many folks are angry enough right now to seriously contemplate going out and waging war against their fellow citizens? I’d wager not many. Maybe 1% of the population.

Of course, a black swan event could occur. Like maybe the food chain breaking down for some reason. But after that, anarchy would occur. Not a civil war.

[Buckeye McFrog]

I remember the Y2K hoax

It wasn't a hoax. Armies of programmers worked hundreds of thousands of hours fixing all that code.

[CIB-173RDABN]

Two strong cultures can not exist in one space.

America was a “melting pot” because there was on strong culture and those migrating into our nation assimilated into that culture (while being allowed to keep some of their own).

That is not the case today. With hundreds of thousands from third world nations entering our nation with no intention of assimilating, friction will develop that will eventually lead to violence. Would that lead to CWII not necessarily. What we will see is that these migrants will take over territory and would be willing to kill anyone that comes into their territory, creating a “new nation” as it were.

They will be aided in this by our own politicians who will encourage and finance these enclaves.

The results I for see is more like the French Revolution then a Civil War. Citizens will turn against the government.

[dp0622]

But we will have millions to fight, not just the aristicrats.

But I agree with you.

[Buckeye McFrog]

True, there are plenty of folks who are upset about a lot of things. But how many folks are angry enough right now to seriously contemplate going out and waging war against their fellow citizens? I’d wager not many. Maybe 1% of the population.

I'd like to believe that's the case, but based on the increasingly shrill wacko rhetoric on the Left, in relatively mainstream places like Time Magazine and MSNBC, I don't know.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Im with him on the not before 2024. When Trump leaves office all bets are off.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Prepper ping - ( becoming aware and evaluating social and political discord )

"While we can’t predict catastrophic storms with 100% accuracy,
it’s probably about time that someone started looking at the horizon
to see what they could see."
OODA Loop

Societal factors that.. might lead to civil war:
Economic metrics - instability, income disparity, jealousy..
Organized violence metrics - some subtle, then organize overt violence ..
Political instability metrics - faction creation, leads to intollerance..
Sites banned - silencing/ ignoring oppostional voices..
Number of illegal immigrants per month - new cultures and volume of people who oppose assimilation ..

Your thoughts and comments welcomed.
The time to prepare for war,.. is during peace.

[Drango]

My wife had NPR on this morning...

NPR is the propaganda wing for the DNC.