Posted on 10/19/2018 4:54:02 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
Twitter handle is @dataflorida
@dataflorida is the Twitter handle
Bravo!!! And, Thanks!!!
Georgia update for tonight. Looking like 2014/16. Up to 50% of the early turnout of 2014. This is after 3 days. Incredible.
AA% dropped from 30.8% to 29.6 today.
http://www.electproject.org/early_2018
The link is below:
https://twitter.com/dataflorida
Some people have way to much time on thier hands. It must be depressing having to continually post - dem updates.
for him, Montana is personal. Tester screwed over his appointee for the VA, the POTUS doctor.
Thanks!
Read this thread from Michael McDonald...
Very Interesting. I think he senses something...
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1053480250498318337
On the thread McDonald suggests 2 scenarios. I will paraphrase these scenarios and extend them into overall voting. The first is that the additional enthusiasm will be indicative of higher turnout throughout the entire election. The other is that it will have little to no impact so that early gains from the enthusiasm just means that they were exited to vote early and will be offset by decreased later voting that will not have these early voters. In essence a zero sum game.
Without any rigor of analysis, my gut math instinct is that this situation is like legitimate scientific polling (not the fake polling that is published by the MSM) and the first option is the only possibility. Unless there is an unusual event(s) or circumstance(s) that would produce a spike, the second option is virtually impossible. I will give 2 examples to illustrate my point. If there was a large hurricane forecast to hit an area within a week during early voting weeks, then there could be a spike to get votes in early and would not be indicative of a higher overall vote. (The recent hurricane that hit the panhandle of Florida is not such an example as it suddenly and surprisingly exploded in force). The other example is the Kavanaugh enthusiasm. If it is strong enough to change behavior to get votes in early, it would also impact voters down the line.
I note that all of the data points of actual voting that I have seen to date (at least 15-16 data points) have favored the Rs. This spreads among several states. This is indicative of a possible Red Wave. This will become clearer each day. I do not recall seeing data in deep blue territory (other than a LS thread noting a decrease in AA% in Georgia) so that will be an interesting piece of information. If the data continues to only favor Rs across the board (we need to see early voting #s and not just mail in ballots), then we are talking a possible Red Tsunami. This would mean that the polls are totally wrong. It would be consistent with what our gut believes is occurring in this country. (Scott Adams discussed something similar yesterday.)
What I read from the Florida numbers is a turnout higher than 2014 but less than a presidential year 2016.
Still this could be a mid-term of high turnout by historical terms.
Whether high turnout or lower turnout, the early voting numbers thus far are good for the GOP.
Exactly. My gut tells me we approach presidential turnout but I don’t know. It’s just the VBM ballot Requests have approached 2016.
I’m guessing less turnout that a presidential election. That would be off the charts historical.
2016 had turnout around 58% of the voting-eligible population.
I just sent you email from the Times. Their polls were for swing districts with competitive elections. Their numbers wouldn’t reach 58% for all groups. Other states don’t have competitive district elections. You’d think less motivation for people to vote there.
I’m guessing less than 50% turnout.
Regarding Florida, the VBM Requests aren’t all true requests. If someone vote in 2016, they are automatically sent a ballot in 2018.
“36.6% of citizen eligible voters cast a ballot in the 2014 election”
Just getting the turnout up to 40-45% would be a huge increase for a midterm.
Yeah I did see that about VBM requests. What percent of the/VBM Requests do you see being turned in? We are turning in the ballots for all parties at a clip currently of about 100,000 daily. I’m sure that will pick up as we get closer. I just don’t know how many dead VBM ballots will be left on November 6th. Will it be 100,000 or 200,000 or more or less?
Based on registered voters in FL, mid-term turnout has averaged 50 to 55% for the past 20 years. Presidential has been 70-75% turnout of registered voters.
With 13 million registered voters in Florida as of 10/1/18, a 1% shift in any direction would be 130,000 votes.
I’m sticking with 55% turnout of registered voters which would be 7.15 million votes.
Of course the only difference between my calculation and yours is the denominator.
No one should ever expect a better turnout in a mid-term than a presidential year. Just not reasonable.
FL is off the charts.
When I research election turnout, the numbers usually refer to “voting-eligible population”. That number is larger than registered voters because some people eligible to vote never register.
For example, 70% of registered voters voting might represent a 55% election turnout. (numbers made up to show my point).
In 2014, 78.4% of REPs returned VBM ballots. 70.2% of DEMs returned VBM ballots. 73% of total VBM ballots were returned.
In 2016, 84.6% of REPs returned VBM ballots. 79.8% of DEMs returned VBM ballots. 81.6% of total VBM ballots were returned.
That is an 8% point difference between 2014 and 2016.
At this point in time in 2016, about 35% of all VBM ballots have been returned. So far in 2018 about 27% of all VBM ballots have been returned. That is an 8% point difference in returns so far in 2018 vs 2016.
8% drop puts us back to 2014 type numbers. Likely many more people are registered today than in 2014 and 2016 based on Florida population growth (haven’t looked up exact numbers). So population growth will mean more voters.
For now, I’m guessing 73-75% of VBM ballots are returned this year. A flat to slight increase over 2014.
Speedy, one thing you’re forgetting. We didn’t have a hurricane in the Panhandle in 2016. You can’t go by 2016 levels yet because John Cotillon published data that says from the red counties returns are only at 36% of the 2016 level because of the hurricane.
You have to assume, I think, that these are “shifted” voters who shifted from absentee/early to election day.
Yep, you are right. Panhandle can mess up comparisons this year.
“John Cotillon published data that says from the red counties returns are only at 36% of the 2016 level because of the hurricane.”
Interestingly, so far in 2018 about 27% of all VBM ballots have been returned.
That means the red counties have returned VBM ballots at a higher rate than the state (36% red counties vs 27% statewide)???
Not sure how to process that. But your point about the panhandle/hurricane is valid.
So, if Panhandle is down by 75%, imagine the totals when those votes are added to election day. or, at least, most of them.
It’s public information - anyone can access the informaton.
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