Skip to comments.Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: study
Posted on 01/21/2018 10:48:46 PM PST by Olog-hai
Earths surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study released Wednesday which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions.
A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planets temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature. Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate sensitivities, said lead author Peter Cox, a professor at the University of Exeter.
How effectively the world slashes CO2 and methane emissions, improves energy efficiency, and develops technologies to remove CO2 from the air will determine whether climate change remains manageable or unleashes a maelstrom of human misery. But uncertainty about how hot things will get also stems from the inability of scientists to nail down a very simple question: By how much will Earths average surface temperature go up if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled?
That known unknown is called equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), and for the last 25 years the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
the ultimate authority on climate science has settled on a range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (2.7 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit).
Cox and colleagues, using a new methodology, have come up with a far narrower range: 2.2°C to 3.4°C, with a best estimate of 2.8°C (5°F). If accurate, it precludes the most destructive doomsday scenarios.
(Excerpt) Read more at afp.com ...
Phew! Dodged a big one there....
Here is a new modeling method that proves the average surface temperature will remain the same, or go way down:
Cannot even begin to count how many times the Global Warming, Global Climate Change, and Global envirowackos have been proven wrong......
Did Al Gores predicted melt of the entire polar ice cap happen last year?
OK!! Everybody pay attention!
Lesson for today:
1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.
2. The sun is a giant nuclear furnace that controls the climates of all its planets.
3. The earth is one of the suns planets.
4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.
5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.
Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?
You can stop reading right there. The IPCC is in the same league as Chicken Little. The IPCC mantra - "The sky is falling, the sky is falling" has failed miserably as the nearly two decade long "pause" in global temperature increases has deflated their entire agenda.
This article actually is an attempt to add some credibility to the movement by coming up with an "It's not too late" story line, "as long as we keep up the effort" (along with the influx of billions of dollars to the cult). Fortunately, we finally have a president who is cutting their allowance.
The whole greenhouse gas scenario is based on CO2 raising global temperatures. UNFORTUNATELY for the warming crowd, CO2 level LAG global temperature increases, NOT lead them.
For the lower IQ warming crowd, that means CO2 is a consequence of increasing temperatures, NOT a cause of increasing temperatures.
Another numbered observation is needed:
6. Most people are still stupid enough to listen the leftist press and politicians when it comes to evaluating the globull warming scam.
...aaaaand sun’s output fluctuates in sunspot cycles
Yes, and aren’t they 11-year cycles?
Yes, 11 year cycles and we are heading into lowest one in our lifetime. Expect extreme variations in weather. Hoter hots, colder colds, windier winds. Lousy radiowave propagation.
When have they been proven right? ]
Thanks for the info.
When I took astronomy in college around 1960, we were told about the 11 year sun spot cycle, and also an 88 year mega-cycle. Subtracting 88 from 2018 give us around 1930, a period of intense drought, dust storms and the Great Depression. The 11 and 88 figures are not absolute, but an approximation. Peaks and troughs also last for several years. Could be 10, 14, 86, 90, etc. See charts in link below. The charts can be clicked to magnify them.
Thanks glee’. Use of the term cycle for natural phenomena always appears to be scurrying humans’ attempts to find order in the overall chaos of reality. I do enjoy reading about mathematical relationships between, say, planetary motions and solar activity — but alas, there’s no widely accepted model for causational relationships. Here are some optimists:
Jackpot! Jupiter and Saturn Solar cycle link confirmed
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