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Political Protests in Iran Spread Amid Rumors of Regime Change Goals
The Conservative Treehouse ^ | 29 Dec, 2017 | Sundance

Posted on 12/30/2017 6:50:54 PM PST by MtnClimber

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To: BeauBo

There is no instance of the Russians military countermanding a single order, You mix that nonsense with the Tinanman square in China where the people there were brutally murdered and crushed by a Chinese military doing exactly what they are told to because similar to the Russians, if they don’t they are summarily executed and never seen again. This feel good altruism is very dangerous in dealing with reality. Google that!!

Here is what happened yesterday, The Iranian guard forces shot two demonstrators to death is a city in north east Iran.They brutally and mercilessly killed them. That not only dispersed that crowd but word quickly spread of that possibility any where, When you are demonstrating over price hikes on commodities anyway this chills your fervor for that cause. You actually conclude that the price is a fair price and just stay home. There will be a few more executions today and that will pretty well do it for this round.


21 posted on 12/31/2017 11:20:25 AM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

I said nothing about Tiananmen Square.

Face it - The Russian military did not fire on their protesters, and the communist regime fell. How do yo explain the fall of communism, despite their military and police state power? Soviet Communism was arguably more powerful, and more brutal/repressive than the current Iranian regime.

It can, and does repeatedly happen in history, that people bravely rise up and overthrow brutal repressive regimes, usually with many more than two people getting shot. They have done so before in Iran as well. Freedom isn’t free. People die in the effort.

Crowds were back out across the country the day after those two were killed. The population outnumbers the total security forces more than 100 to 1. Typically during regime change, a tipping point occurs, where elements of the security forces either stand down (as in Russia), or turn their guns on the old regime (Romania). Humanity has been been down that path countless times. It obviously can happen.


22 posted on 12/31/2017 2:00:01 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

If you think this is about Islamic Shia Regime change,I assure you that is wrong.
Here is what will happen again. The Iranian Mullahs will call for a “praise to Allah”day to support the regime. The numbers will be in the millions across the nation and every city and town. Just like last time. This will dishearten those that are mad because bread went up 19%. There will be no regime change.


23 posted on 12/31/2017 2:24:17 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

Reports are now on twitter (#Izeh) that the city of Izeh, capital of the Bakhtiari tribe, has fallen to rebel control (reports of ten killed, unknown how many were regime). The regime is reportedly preparing a counter attack with Republican Guards and foreign militia support. Apparently, some members of the local security forces have changed their loyalty to local or tribal authorities, and the officials loyal to the regime have been driven from office and out of town.

The Republican Guards only total about 125,000 (in a country of 80 million), but many of them are specialized rocket or naval forces, and many more are administrative in nature. Their few tens of thousands of combat troops have mainly been converted from domestic security roles to expeditionary forces to fight in Iraq, Yemen and Syria - where many are deployed.

90,000 Basiji (like riot police) are on the payroll to support the Republican Guards in domestic security. Around 300,000 reserve Basiji report to various Government and Civil organizations, but they have a spotty record of effectively mustering when called.

Foreign Shi’ite militias total several tens of thousands across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, who might be called in to quell rebellion (some are reportedly being sent to Izeh). they are real trigger pullers. Houthis in Yemen have no realistic possibility of reinforcing the Iranian regime.

The regular Army has over 300,000 personnel, but is not structured or routinely tasked for domestic security missions. In 2009, they refused to fire on protesters.

The regime has limited capability to handle multiple situations like Izeh simultaneously, especially while also trying to control demonstrations across dozens of cities.


24 posted on 12/31/2017 3:08:31 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

I see no source on this story. Is it DEBKA? I dont believe any of it. We need the source on stories or they are considered just made up .


25 posted on 12/31/2017 11:51:31 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

“I see no source on this story.”

Read the first words, of the first sentence: “Reports are now on twitter (#Izeh)”


26 posted on 01/01/2018 1:54:57 AM PST by BeauBo
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To: raiderboy

The sun has set in Iran. Tonight should be the first opportunity for a really big regime crackdown.

They have had their emergency meeting of the highest Ministers, and time to disseminate marching orders. Whatever they decided to do, should start with tonight’s protests.


27 posted on 01/01/2018 8:43:47 AM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

The price of eggs isn’t worth prison so this will fizzle pretty quickly.


28 posted on 01/01/2018 1:59:43 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

So said Marie Antoinette about the price of bread.


29 posted on 01/01/2018 2:10:38 PM PST by nomorelurker
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To: nomorelurker

This thing is over. The people got all jack about egg prices. Funny. You will never die for an egg.


30 posted on 01/01/2018 3:49:03 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

Up to Forty cities last night.

The first regime security personnel death reported - by rifleshot, in Najafabad.

Nobody is chanting about egg prices, but they are chanting “Death to the Dictator”.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/01/01/leaked-meeting-notes-show-how-panicked-iranian-regime-considered-stopping-deadly-protests-god-help-us.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true


31 posted on 01/01/2018 6:06:14 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

Get ready for a massive fall.


32 posted on 01/01/2018 6:38:21 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

Iran protests and death toll grow as tension rises: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-protests-and-death-toll-grow-as-tension-rises/2018/01/02/243fa9be-ef47-11e7-95e3-eff284e71c8d_story.html?utm_term=.9a3a882cab7a

As protests continue to multiply and grow, both Russia and the Iranian Supreme Leader now state that this movement is supported by external State actors.

If so, those foreign intelligence and military planners would no doubt have considered an Iranian regime crackdown. It is the reaction that everyone expects. Planners would have had to have a counter to the anticipated crackdown, to have their plan approved.

If that is the case, then the crackdown itself could be the trigger for regime change.

So far, the regime has been throttling up its presence in Tehran, but no mass arrests or extensive killing yet. The number of regime facilities being torched nationwide continues to grow.


33 posted on 01/02/2018 11:45:06 AM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

There are no objective facts cited here . This is all objective conclusions spun right out of a propaganda machine. Which propaganda machine is up for debate.


34 posted on 01/02/2018 12:31:40 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

“There are no objective facts cited here”

“protests and death toll grow”

“both Russia and the Iranian Supreme Leader now state that this movement is supported by external State actors”

Those are all objective facts. I gave you a mainstream media citation - it just doesn’t seem to register though.


35 posted on 01/02/2018 12:46:58 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

You see those as “objective facts”? You kidding.
“protests and death toll grow”. what is the empirical data on the number of protests yesterday and today and where are they located. What is the exact death toll and exactly who were they and by what event did they die?
“both Russia and the Iranian Supreme Leader now state that this movement is supported by external State actors”.You think that is supported by objective facts? Name them. What External State forces? the CIA?


36 posted on 01/02/2018 1:00:30 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

It is a fact (objective) that those official statements were made by the Russian and Iranian authorities.

The article linked provides citation for the (continued) growth in demonstrations and deaths.

Based on those objective, documented facts, I provided logical inferences (if...then).

You continue to reassert your opinion though, without any similar support. You asked, I provided. Now I ask you to similarly support your position. It is a useful exercise.


37 posted on 01/02/2018 1:26:35 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

totally unsubstantiated conjecture, It’s tiring. but it is convincing of the opposite conclusion.


38 posted on 01/02/2018 1:39:25 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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To: raiderboy

“totally unsubstantiated conjecture”

If you step back and observe it objectively, you’d see that your words better characterize your opinion. You seem to simply project from what happened before, rather than what is happening now.

Yesterday you wrote: “This thing is over.”

Objectively, it is not. In fact, it has grown.

There has been conjecture that other countries are assisting the protesters, but now that is the official position of the Russian and Iranian governments.

I have been following the coordination between the USA, Saudi Arabia and Israel to counter the Iranian regime, since Trump’s first month in office. I found strong reason to believe that they have agreed to a plan of action, such as this report: https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-us-israel-sign-secret-pact-to-tackle-iran-nuclear-and-missile-threat/.

Other countries get to act as well as Iran, and have significant capabilities that could be brought to bear, like targeted assassinations at key times: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/01/report_us_gives_green_light_to_israeli_assassination_of_iranian_general.html


39 posted on 01/02/2018 2:04:41 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

let me warn that this comes dangerously close to a war with 90 million people that we cant handle. This aint no Iraq here. Saudi Arabia is the # 1 supporter and promoter of terrorism in the world. We all know that. They were totally behind 911 and Al Queda and Isis. That is SUNNI terrorism. Iran was none of that— zero zip!! This CIA attempted coup is doomed to failure but why are we not doing this to Saudi Arabia. They are far more active in attacking us!! The only allegation with any merit against Iran is that Iranian bombs were used as IEDs by insurgents in iraq. That’s it. We lost 3000 Americans on 911 to a suicide mission directly sponsored by the royal family in Saudi Arabia but we avert our gaze on them because of economic ties of the elites. Wake up!!


40 posted on 01/02/2018 4:39:00 PM PST by raiderboy ( "...if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall")
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