NOAA Forecast Path Hurricane Matther 2 pm update

NOAA ^ | October 4, 2016 | Staff

[RegulatorCountry]

I’m in NC. I realize hurricanes make it to New England on occasion. It’s somewhat unusual because the water is colder, yes.

[Gay State Conservative]

It’s somewhat unusual because the water is colder, yes.

OK,so what I was suggesting is that if,by chance,the water off the *entire* East Coast (and not just Cape Cod) is warmer than normal now that could spell trouble for many,not just Florida and the Carolinas.

[RegulatorCountry]

It’s possible that unseasonably warm ocean waters could sustain a hurricane further up the eastern seaboard.

But, the reason I brought up the eye being close to the coast is that the storm can tend to lose intensity when approaching or over land, even where the water is unquestionably warm.

Maybe we’re just misunderstanding one another. No offense intended, apologies if any was taken.

[dirtboy]

The Euro went bonkers this afternoon, with some ensembles having Matthew do a loop back down into Florida. I think the NHC has no idea what to do with this model at the moment.

[Gay State Conservative]

Maybe we’re just misunderstanding one another. No offense intended, apologies if any was taken.

No need to apologize...I,for one,am absolutely clueless on this general subject.I guess we'll all have to see what does,and doesn't,happen here.Hopefully things don't get too bad for anyone who *is* affected.

[mware]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane-central/matthew-2016/AL142016

[RegulatorCountry]

From the look of the models, I’d say somebody in the US is headed for a real mess on their hands one way or the other, but hopefully no major damage and no fatalities. I don’t wish it on anyone, but hope NC’s Outer Banks are spared any heavy damage. Love the place.

[M Kehoe]

The typo in the headline made me think of the Beaver.

....

5.56mm

[OregonRancher]

don’t forget the storm sieche on inland waters.

[Gay State Conservative]

...but hopefully no major damage and no fatalities.

Agreed.

[numberonepal]

You're both right. The Gulf Stream curves back toward the west at the Carolina coast. The water there is warmer than the water off the coast of Daytona Beach. If the eye of Matthew hangs with the Gulf Stream, losing intensity is a low probability.

Interesting fact:
If the Gulf Stream stops, the planet dies.

[RegulatorCountry]

The Gulf Stream veers off and out to sea at Cape Hatteras because it clashes with the colder Labrador Current there. This is also why the ocean off Cape Hatteras is so rough. If this storm makes it to Cape Hatteras and follows the Gulf Stream, it’ll move away from land and likely dissipate at sea.

[deport]

Wunderground

wunderground

[RegulatorCountry]

Looks like those models may indicate a grazing landfall at Cape Lookout then up and out to the north at Cape Hatteras. If it’s moving slowly, that would be bad for Atlantic Beach, Ocracoke and southern Hatteras Island.