Skip to comments.NASA Says “No Chance” Small Asteroid Will Hit Earth On March 5th
Posted on 02/06/2016 10:53:52 AM PST by BenLurkin
On October 6th, 2013, the Catalina Sky Survey discovered a small asteroid which was later designated as 2013 TX68. As part Apollo group this 30 meter (100 ft) rock is one of many Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that periodically crosses Earth's orbit and passes close to our planet. A few years ago, it did just that, flying by our planet at a safe distance of about 2 million km (1.3 million miles).
And according to NASA's Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, it will be passing us again in a few weeks time, specifically between March 2nd and 6th. Of course, asteroids pass Earth by on a regular basis, and there is very rarely any cause for alarm. However, there is some anxiety about 2013 TX68âs latest flyby, mainly because its distance could be subject to some serious variation.
Basically, the asteroid is expected to make its closest approach on March 5th, and will pass Earth at a distance of between 14 million km (9 million) and 17,000 km (11,000 miles). By comparison, the Earth's Moon lies at an average distance of 384,399 km (238,854 miles) from Earth, ranging from about 362,600 km (225,309 mi) at perigee to 405,400 km (251,904 mi) at apogee.
This means that there is a chance that, between March 2nd and 6th, this small asteroid will get far closer to Earth than the Moon ever does. The reason for this variation in estimates has to do with the trajectory of the asteroid, which scientists cannot entirely predict. This in turn is due to the fact that they have only been able to track it since its discovery, just three years ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at universetoday.com ...
time to head for the hills!
Swing and a miss. We hope. ;-)
So after 3 years they can still only narrow down the nearest pass to +/- 4.5 million miles? I really hope something was lost in the writing of the article.
A 30 m rock wouldn’t being extinction level events anyway, but it could wipe out a city.
We will see.
Wipe out a city? One the size of DC? What are the chances? God does move in mysterious ways and He will be heard.
Doesn’t stop bpearthwatch from meandering in his stoned out voice about reptoids, CERN spying on him, or tiny space debris somehow causing earthquakes or the immense gravity well of Mercury slingshotting miles and miles wide rocks into us magically somehow.
Mecca. Please Mecca.
“So after 3 years they can still only narrow down the nearest pass to +/- 4.5 million miles?”
It has to do with other magnetic influences and gravitational pull of other stuff ‘out there’.
For example, the moon and other objects can disrupt the path. That is why their calculations cannot be exact.
...the same as...
Lol. I was thinking the same thing!
Mecca would be AWESOME!
11K miles is less than 5% of the mean distance to the moon - good thing it’s small.
This is amazing. The main of error is about 500 times greater than the potential closest approach.
1. In practical terms this means the if the margin of error is too low by 0.2% a direct hit is possible.
2. How is this close encounter going to effect the future trajectory of the asteroid? This is not just a theoretical question. Comet Shoemaker-Levy passed close to Jupiter and on a later even closer orbit broke into pieces and eventually all of them hit the planet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Shoemaker%E2%80%93Levy_9
So while they say that it will miss if it passes on the 5th, but they are noticeably silent as to what might happen on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 6th. Since we are only safe on one of the 5 days, simple math shows that there is an 80% chance it will hit.
You have to carefully parse anything that comes from the government, and look closely at what they don't say.
There were a total of 32 observations, between October 6, 2013 and October 9, 2013. That’s a tiny database and a very short timeline to extrapolate its orbit forward two and half years. As of today, the uncertainty in orbital period is two days. The earth moves in its orbit 30 km/sec, the uncertainty in the position of the earth over two days in more than 5,000,000 km, all of which adds to the uncertainty in position of asteroid relative to the earth. After this pass, we should have a much firmer grasp of it’s orbit because of the two year baseline.
# obs. used (total) 32
data-arc span 3 days
first obs. used 2013-10-06
last obs. used 2013-10-09
;-)) Mecca? DC? Same difference. Both full of savage Muslims.
If it’s that close, it will also be within the orbits of geosynchronous satellites.
“You have to carefully parse anything that comes from the government, and look closely at what they don’t say.”
You also need to remember to take your meds.
Was wondering that myself. Its orbit could be affected such that the next time around it hits earth (or never passes near us again).
How long before this rock shows up again (if ever)?
And by the way, the rock that made this crater was only slightly larger, 160 feet across.
who states a range like that? ranges are usually stated low to high. ie: 11k - 9m miles
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