Volatile times loom for NM’s oil patch

Albuquerque Journal ^ | 10/26/15 | Kevin Robinson-Avila

[brownwill6767]

nery in Artesia. (Roberto E. Rosales/Albuquerque Journal) By Kevin Robinson-Avila / Journal Staff Writer Published: Monday, October 26th, 2015 at 12:02am Updated: Monday, October 26th, 2015 at 10:52am

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story contained an incorrect time frame in a quote from Dan Fine about when prices might dip into the $23 to $28 per barrel range. The quote has been corrected to show that projection for late 2017.

New Mexico’s oil and gas industry is bracing for another round of volatile ups and downs in crude prices that could push the market – and ultimately production in the southeastern part of the state – to its lowest point in more than a decade.

The industry has already been battered by steep price declines over the past year that cut the price of crude from more than a $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to about $44 now. That’s led to thousands of layoffs in New Mexico’s oil patch in the southeastern part of the state and, to a lesser extent, in the northwestern San Juan Basin.

[brownwill6767]

But things may get a lot worse thanks to Iran, which is expected to aggressively ramp up its oil production next year as international sanctions are lifted following last summer’s deal designed to limit Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has enough oil reserves to rival Saudi Arabia on world markets and, as it begins to flood the West with new crude, prices are likely to crash to levels not seen since 2003, said Daniel Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology.

“Once Iran is able to export to western markets, it can rapidly move back to its full capacity, which in 1979 was 5.7 million barrels per day – second only to Saudi Arabia,” Fine said. “If Iran produces what it’s qualified to produce, world oil prices could drop back to the 2003 range of between $23 and $28 a barrel, which would have severe consequences for New Mexico. Harder times are coming.”

At $23 to $28 per barrel, New Mexico production would hit bottom, said Gregg Fulfer, Lea County Commission chair and owner of the Fulfer Oil and Cattle Co. in Jal.

“When Iran comes back on, we could easily see another $15 per barrel drop in price,” Fulfer said. “That will really hurt us. They’d be putting a lot more crude on an already over-supplied market and I think we’ll see our economy tank a lot more than today.”

[Cedar]

The lower gas price is the only relief for many families while food prices keep going up (along with other expenses). Wish there was some great technical advancement to help the U.S. oil patch still make a profit. But the truth is these low gas prices are a great help to middle and lower income Americans.

[thackney]

There is no way Iran will be near 5.7 MMBPD, it was more than sanctions that dropped from that level 35 years ago.

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http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2015/10/19/893342/iran-calls-on-opec-to-scale-down-oil-output

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh on Monday urged member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut crude output to boost prices to a range of $70 to $80 a barrel.

“OPEC should decide to manage the market by reducing the level of production,” Zangeneh said on the sidelines of an oil forum and exhibition in Tehran on Monday, Bloomberg reported.

He added that “no one is happy” with prices at current levels.

“We won’t seek permission from anyone for our production,” Zanganeh stressed.

“We will bring our production back to the market, and the market will absorb it. All of those OPEC members whom I speak with welcome this,” he added....

“Immediately after sanctions are lifted, maybe we within some months we can add at least 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). It does not take that long,” Hosseini said.

“After that we are targeting another 1 million. Maybe in less than a year we can come to our pre-sanction capacity of around 4 million bpd,” he added.