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Hindsight is 20-20 but these election predictions by political pros were awful
American Thinker ^ | Rick Moran

Posted on 11/08/2014 3:17:58 PM PST by right-wing agnostic

Politico has an interesting article, looking back at some of the worst mid term predictions made by political pros who should have known better,

Here are a few:

Senator Chuck Schumer:

“Well, I think we will hold the Senate. You know, I know all the pundits are saying Republicans will take the Senate. Democrats are going to prove the pundits wrong on Election Day when we keep the Senate, three reasons. First and foremost, economic issues predominate. Ebola's in the news, ISIS is in the news, but the average voter, every poll shows far and away, cares most about economic issues. They tend to be for Democrats when economic issues like minimum wage, like equal pay for women, like not sending jobs overseas predominate. Second, we have a much better ground game. You can add two to three points at a minimum…for each of those races.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2014elections; predictions
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1 posted on 11/08/2014 3:17:58 PM PST by right-wing agnostic
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To: right-wing agnostic

Let’s not forget Nate Silver! He should have the same standing as Dick Morris now.


2 posted on 11/08/2014 3:31:56 PM PST by MNDude
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To: MNDude
I like it that Nate went back and is trying to analyze where he went wrong. He wrote an interesting post-election article.

Re Dick Morris, someone made a funny remark about how Dick must've been burning up to have to sit at home election night and watch Karl Rove still on TV, an equally failed prognosticator.

3 posted on 11/08/2014 3:36:44 PM PST by MUDDOG
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To: right-wing agnostic

what were they supposed to say? “we can’t win.”?


4 posted on 11/08/2014 3:38:35 PM PST by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: right-wing agnostic

The average dem seems to believe that the American voter only wants to vote for the winner, so they present false polls that says their guy is winning. It’s shallow, but they must believe it works for a reason....oh, wait, they are libs, they don’t reason.


5 posted on 11/08/2014 3:42:04 PM PST by tioga
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To: tioga
Maybe it does work.

For example, has your vote ever been decided by a TV ad? Mine neither. Yet the pols spend billions on them.

So a lot of voters must be awfully shallow.

6 posted on 11/08/2014 3:44:25 PM PST by MUDDOG
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To: MUDDOG

I looked at Silvers articles. He had a landslide at 30% and solid win at 35% (51-53) seats. I thought it was a respectable call.


7 posted on 11/08/2014 3:47:16 PM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: MUDDOG

Karl Rove said Perdue and McConnell would lose.

Many Freepers said the Gop would lose.


8 posted on 11/08/2014 3:53:30 PM PST by Perdogg (I'm on a no Carb diet- NO Christie Ayotte Romney or Bush)
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To: Caipirabob

But look at these numbers, he was off by 12 points in GA!


9 posted on 11/08/2014 3:54:11 PM PST by MNDude
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To: Caipirabob
What stood out to me in his post-election analysis was the year-by-year chart of how the polls missed in past elections, and it looked to me like there might be a previously-unidentified statistical fluctuation involved, apart from the usual sample errors that have long been taken into account.

If there is, Nate's the guy to find it.

10 posted on 11/08/2014 3:54:11 PM PST by MUDDOG
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To: right-wing agnostic

Ole Chucky was banking on just enough fraud to pull them through.

Sorry Chucky, WE WON!


11 posted on 11/08/2014 3:55:40 PM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: Perdogg
McConnell had a huge margin of victory. That's a big miss.

Perdue, not so much.

12 posted on 11/08/2014 3:56:10 PM PST by MUDDOG
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To: MNDude

It seems that Michael Barone has been lying low these days. I was she’ll shockedcaftervthe last election by him!


13 posted on 11/08/2014 3:58:45 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I LOVE BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: BunnySlippers

I recalled just reading an article by him; here it is from November 7, with brand new predictions:

“Democratic leading lights have been around a long time. The party’s two congressional leaders are in their 70s. The governors of the two largest Democratic states are sons of former governors who won their first statewide elections in 1950 and 1978. This has implications for 2016.”

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/392225/shrinkage-obama-majority-michael-barone


14 posted on 11/08/2014 4:22:32 PM PST by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: MUDDOG

Muddog, wake up! A lot of voters ARE awfully shallow. That’s why we’ve got a total bozo in the White House.


15 posted on 11/08/2014 4:59:28 PM PST by Walrus (I love the America that used to be ---I hate the America that now IS!)
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To: MUDDOG

Negative TV ads work great. They tend to suppress voter turnout for your opponent.


16 posted on 11/08/2014 5:01:38 PM PST by cornfedcowboy
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To: Walrus

Now I’ll be hearing “I’m Only Sleeping” in my head. But that’s OK. It’s a great Beatles tune.


17 posted on 11/08/2014 5:02:12 PM PST by MUDDOG
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To: cornfedcowboy

Good point. But the TV ads have no effect on MY vote. Unless there’s some sort of subliminal thing going on there.


18 posted on 11/08/2014 5:03:50 PM PST by MUDDOG
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To: right-wing agnostic

And one from our side:

“Democrats are going to rig all of the Senate races and voter fraud will clinch it for them. I have no hope that we can overcome it because the GOP has no ground game. They want to lose because they just want the perks of office.”


19 posted on 11/08/2014 5:06:31 PM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: wiggen
what were they supposed to say? “we can’t win.”?
Sure, nothing wrong with that! If Harry Reid thought it was OK to announce “This war is lost!” then he should have been willing to announce that he was gonna lose his reelection.

20 posted on 11/08/2014 6:00:38 PM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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