Medic becomes fourth doctor to die of Ebola in Sierra Leone after failed bid to move her ...

Mail Online ^ | September 14, 2014 | Julian Robinson

[Smokin' Joe]

A fourth doctor has died of Ebola in Sierra Leone after a failed bid to transfer her abroad for treatment.

Dr Olivet Buck died last night hours after the World Health Organisation said it could not help medically evacuate her to Germany.

Sierra Leone had requested funds from the organisation to transfer her for treatment saying it could not afford to lose another doctor.

[Smokin' Joe]

Ping...

A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread

[null and void]

If only they'd let her break quarantine...

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[BunnySlippers]

Hahaha, if you Google Ticolahorn, you get millions of good horn photos! Kudos.

[BunnySlippers]

That should say, if you Google RICOLA HORN ...

[Dallas59]

Frontline Reports Ebola Outbreak 9/9/2014

[dayglored]

Hey Nully,

I took the Wikipedia semi-logarithmic scale graph of the Ebola cases/deaths data from a few days ago and did a simple projection.

Talk about needing a bigger cart...

[Oliviaforever]

While the chart is interesting, the increase in the number of Ebola deaths will not continue at its current rate, but if it does, it means we are all dead two and a half years.

[21twelve]

“...the increase in the number of Ebola deaths will not continue at its current rate...”

Why is that?

[RedHeeler]

Well, winter is coming. By spring, the spread will be world wide, and vicious. What will you do, between now and then?

[mdmathis6]

Not all of us...30 per cent are surviving the disease including an unknown number of lesser sick almost silent infected persons.

[Smokin' Joe]

Work while there is work, get some thermal optics, lay in more groceries, better water purification equipment, beef up the medicine chest, get more bleach, and more PPE--oh, and dog food. --and a couple of tons of coal for next winter.

Anticipate 1-2 years possible with no grid, worst case.

[dayglored]

> While the chart is interesting, the increase in the number of Ebola deaths will not continue at its current rate, but if it does, it means we are all dead two and a half years.

I expect three things to change the slope of the straight lines on the semi-log graph.

1. In the short term, once the African cities explode, the straight lines will continue, and perhaps even tilt upward (faster spread) a little bit, because the virus will have a temporarily unlimited supply of new victims in easy reach. This will accelerate the spread, but it can't do so for too long without reaching a temporary limit.

It is the same effect as a bacteria colony in a Petri dish -- until the media is completely covered (i.e. until each city is saturated with victims), the colony will grow exponentially. When all the media is covered (i.e. when each city is full of sick/dead people), the rate of new cases will drop in that city.

But as soon as it jumps to a new city, the cycle will repeat. Given enough cities (a half dozen will do nicely), the overall cumulative spread will be pretty much straight in line with what I drew, and continue into 2015 largely unabated.

2. In the mid-term, Africa will be fully involved, Europe and the Middle East will be in trouble, and we'll be fighting localized outbreaks in the Western Hemisphere. I'm less worried about spread in the continental U.S. than I am in South and Central America, where living and sanitation conditions are not substantially better than in Africa. Here in the U.S. we have a chance of containing outbreaks, as long as it remains non-airborne. Elsewhere....?

During this time the slope will decrease (slower rate of new cases), but it won't level out until all the regions of the world with lousy sanitation and living conditions are involved. There is simply nothing to stop the spread into and through those regions.

3. Eventually it'll drop down to a background level, having taken out as many victims as it can. Whether that's 50 million or a few billion, I can't begin to tell you. But I believe it'll be between those lower and upper limits.

[Tennessee Nana]

I think it would be more than that..

Ebola has to be spreading faster than they admit..

[Tennessee Nana]

and a couple of tons of coal for next winter.
________________________________________

1/2 ton will do for most of the year..

that much will fuel a “cold range” to cook food and an open fireplace for heat..

[Smokin' Joe]

I live in North Dakota. We have to heat the first 62 degrees just to keep the ice off the coffee some days, 68 inside is 98 warmer than outside.

[exDemMom]

Ebola is spread by human behavior. Many of the people who live in the affected areas do not believe Ebola is a real disease. As more of them are affected, and the public health messages reach more people and they change their behavior, I expect the number of new cases to taper off.

[Tennessee Nana]

These are about the same South African countries where men with AIDS believed that sex with young virgins would cure them..

[donozark]

Liberia has a population of 4 million. Yet I read a couple days ago, they now have less than 300 doctors. Who the hell wants to practice medicine in Liberia now? And we really do not yet know the total effect of Ebola in more rural areas. Some small villages not heard from in days. Power failure? Internet down? Or wiped out by Ebola and survivors fled?

Another problem is many people over there are superstitious. Distrustful of outsiders. They think medical people bring Ebola with them. Therefore, medical people are subject to attack. Hell awaits us. The hell of Ebola....

[null and void]

Sounds like a reasonable analyses. We’ll see how accurate it is soon enough.

It’s possible there will be a better treatment/preventive/cure in that time frame.

It’s possible it will go airborne.

It’s possible sanitation in the Western World isn’t anywhere near as good as we think it is.