Skip to comments.Australia says missing Malaysia plane not where 'pings' heard
Posted on 05/29/2014 5:01:13 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
The search for a missing Malaysia Airlines MASM.KL jetliner suffered a further setback on Thursday after Australian officials said wreckage from the aircraft was not on the seabed in the area they had identified....
The search was narrowed last month after a series of acoustic pings thought to be from the plane's black box recorders were heard near where analysis of satellite data put its last location, some 1,600 km (1,000 miles) off the northwest coast of Australia.
"The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has advised that the search in the vicinity of the acoustic detections can now be considered complete and, in its professional judgment, the area can now be discounted as the final resting place of MH370," the agency in charge of the search said in a statement.
ATSB chief Martin Dolan told Reuters he expected the team to take two to three weeks to reassess and re-analyze the data, although he was "confident" that the final resting place of the aircraft was the Indian Ocean....
"We concentrated the search in that area because the pings were the best information available at the time," Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss, who is also the transport minister, told the Australian parliament.
"We are still very confident that the resting place of the aircraft is in the southern (Indian) Ocean, and along the seventh ping line," he added, referring to an arc identified by analysis of satellite communications data from UK company Inmarsat Plc ISA.L.
Earlier on Thursday, CNN quoted Michael Dean, the U.S. Navy's deputy director of ocean engineering, and said authorities now almost universally believe the pings did not come from the plane's onboard data or cockpit voice recorders.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
I seem to remember reading a few years ago that our Navy had wired a microphone grid spanning all the Oceans so we could track Soviet subs. This network should nave heard the plane impact the Ocean where ever it came down and any pings from it as well.
Here it is . . . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS
This network should have heard something and triangulated the sound to a specific location.
THAT — together with the fact that the 4ELTs onboard did not activate, that no debris from the plane after nearly 3 months has ever been found or washed up on any beaches, that the family has stated unequivocably that the captain was not suicidal, that the captain spent most of last year practicing extreme emergency water type landings on his computer, that the pilot flew low enough over Penang to make a cellphone call to someone to confirm the time and place of a pick-up — is all ample evidence that the plane was carefully landed in a place of the pilot’s choosing and did not crash because it ran out of fuel.
Until the authorities come to grips with that they will never find the plane.
Mind games or deliberate disinformation —
They have no evidence that the plane ran out of fuel — just pure assumption.
They have no evidence that the plane was being directed by any force other than a pilot bent on his own survival who spent the last year practicing extreme [water] landings.
They have no evidence of a crash versus a landing by such a pilot.
They have no evidence that the plane could not have gone down up closer to Indonesia where the last Inmarsat arc intersects Jakarta.
Inmarsat data, which has now been tested and retested and released to the public, shows that the plane could just as easily be parked at Jakarta International Airport as in the search area off Australia where no pilot would want to land a plane.
So why are they avoiding Indonesia like a plague???
Inmarsat 8:11 arc —
UPDATED KML FILES FOR PING RINGS
Time Satellite to Elevation Ring Ring
UTC Aircraft (km) Angle Radius(km) Radius (nm)
[MH370 on the ground at KLA]
16 27 59 37296.19 37.18 4138.96 2234.86
16 41 53 37293.52 37.15 4135.05 2232.75
16 42 4 37290.46 37.11 4131.06 2230.60
16 42 17 37296.37 37.19 4139.71 2235.27
16 42 48 37290.16 37.11 4130.65 2230.37
16 43 12 37290.01 37.10 4130.45 2230.27
[MH370 has taken off and is on the way to Beijing]
16 55 38 37327.22 37.66 4192.73 2263.89
16 56 17 37332.97 37.74 4201.50 2268.63
17 6 49 37383.13 38.41 4275.56 2308.62
17 7 19 37382.98 38.41 4275.35 2308.50
17 7 49 37385.80 38.44 4279.36 2310.67
[MH370 turned around and began heading to the west northwest in the direction of the Andamans and the satellite]
18 27 4 36906.07 31.86 3546.32 1914.86
18 27 4 36900.07 31.77 3536.39 1909.50
18 27 8 36900.07 31.77 3536.39 1909.50
18 28 6 36900.07 31.77 3536.39 1909.50
18 28 15 36893.87 31.68 3526.08 1903.93
[MH370 turned south southwest heading directly toward the satellite whose geostationary position is at the equator ]
19 41 3 36740.62 29.31 3262.87 1761.81
[MH370 crosses the equator on its way south and thus is now flying at an angle away from the equatorial satellite position]
20 41 5 36780.97 29.95 3333.89 1800.16
[MH370 is now flying south southeast on a more direct path away from the satellite]
21 41 27 36949.66 32.50 3617.86 1953.49
[MH370 has turned further east and is now flying a more direct path eastward away from the satellite]
22 41 22 37233.50 36.46 4058.16 2191.23
24 11 0 37798.16 43.47 4839.29 2613.01
Log On request made from KLA terminal at 18:03 and then followed by Voice Call at 18:39. Though both went unanswered they would not have gone unnoticed:
Shortly afterwards the pilot takes MH370 off its northwesterly heading and veers south as if now realizing that ground control now know where he is and what he is doing and where he is heading.
At this point he was just barely north of Sumatra and able to skirt Indonesian radar as he turned south.
Inmarsat Frequency Burst chart shows significant change of frequency southwest toward the satellite at 18:29 proximate position N7.5E96 just above Sumatran Banda Aceh N5.55EE95.31 travelling at 485mph.
Trying to escape Malaysian radar and then avoid Indonesian radar the pilot turns SSW @ 485mph and 566 miles putting its position 70 minutes later just below the equator at its most westerly point relative to satellite at S0.5E94 @ 19:40.
From KLA until 19:40 the plane covered 1438 miles over 3 hours and had enough fuel onboard for another 5 hours @ 485mph or 2425 miles.
Australia is 2200 miles from that point meaning that if it flew until it ran out of fuel in that direction then it would be somewhere in western Australia.
485mph due south of its 19:40 position for 242 miles for another half hour would put it at S4.0E94 @ 20:11 before turning to the more easterly direction at which point the pilot would have slowed down as he turned more easterly.
The plane would have travelled 1734 miles over 3.5 miles to that point and from there to the search area S20E103.5 is another 1276 miles. It could have cruised to the search area then @ 319mph to be there at 0:11 — 4 hours later.
Distance from the 20:11 point to the upperpart of the final 0:11 Inmarsat Arc closer to Indonesia would be only about 982 miles which would have meant a slower average speed of 245mph over the last 4 hours to a ditching in the warmer smoother friendlier waters south of Java.
If it flew until it ran out of fuel then it is in kangarooland because it had enough fuel to reach there with fuel to spare — but that would defy the sanctity of the Inmarsat Arcs.
So which is it???
From KLA all the way around Sumatra and down to the search area S20E103.5 on the 0:11 final Inmarsat Arc hitting all the arcs along the way is 3010 miles [1734 + 1276].
603 miles further [1734 + 1879] is the Australian coastline at Exmouth S21.93E114.12 — 3613 miles from KLA where it started.
AI early on had the plane flying for 7.5 hours @ 390mph and 3675 miles — thus reaching Australia by their calculations was just barely doable.
MAS said the plane had fuel for 8 hours of flying meaning that reaching Australia was more than doable by hundreds of miles.
So how could it have run out of fuel after 3010 miles when it had enough fuel to fly atleast 3675 miles???
Would slowing the speed down to 320mph as it turned eastward @ 20:11 @ S4.0E94 after 3.5 hours have enabled the plane to fly further longer if the pilot wanted to???
<>7.5 hours @ 390mph and 3675 miles<>
should be: 490mph — 7.5 x 490 = 3675
The southern tip of the 0:11 Inmarsat arc where Inmarsat said the plane would have crashed after running out of fuel is about S32E95.
That’s 1933 miles south of the 20:11 @ S4E94 point and in order to reach it the plane would have had to fly at about 485mph for the last 4 hours in order to reach it by 0:11.
So they were saying that the plane was capable of flying 3667 miles [1784+1933]and another 65 miles [8 minutes until 0:19] for a total of 3732 miles from KLA and then ran out of fuel and crashed way down south there — but then changed their mind to a slower speed as they moved to the new search area.
The coastline of Australia at Exmouth is only 3613 miles from KLA as the MH370 flies. So it could have landed there with 100 miles to spare if the Inmarsat arc is incorrect.
What we know and conclude from what we know:
16:41 departs KLA N2.73E101.71 to Beijing
17:19 the pilot signs off and then ACARS and transponder turned off
17:21 the plane turns after 318 miles at waypoint IGARI N6.94E103.58 and heads west toward Penang Island, where the pilot grew up and regularly visits
The plane goes from 35000ft to maximum altitude for 20 minutes and then down to 12000ft and as low as 5000ft as it flies over Malaysia
Plane flies 229 miles to Penang Island N5.67E100.50 where it drops low enough for cellphone onboard to connect with a cell tower and then turns northwest to a point above Banda Aceh N5.55E95.31 outside Indonesian radar
18:03 Log On request from ground control reaches the plane notifying pilot that ground control was on to him and may even know where he is
At 18:29 and 334 miles from Penang Island and an estimated position N7.5E96, in order to avoid being tracked which he thinks is now may be happening, the pilot turns plane abruptly and probably prematurely SSW, which incidentally is toward the satellite’s geostationary position resulting in a noticeable frequency burst
To this point the plane has flown 881 miles [318 + 229 + 334] over 1:48 hours averaging 489.4mph
At 19:40 after 1:11 hours and 569 miles @ 485mph in that direction the plane would be ~@ S0.5E94
At 20:11 after another 0:31 minutes and 251 miles SSW the plane reaches its most easterly position S4.0E93 — 1701 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]
This is the point of decision:
1]Proceeding further south is suicide — nothing is there and water is cold and survival after landing a plane in those waters is not likely. 484.5mph for 4 hours and 1938 miles puts the plane on the final Inmarsat Arc at 0:11 and S32E95. Total flight distance 3639 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1938] averaging 485mph start to finish.
Since the family members say that the pilot was not suicidal he probably did not fly the plane here but just wanted anyone tracking him to think that this is where he was headed to end it all
The claim that the plane ran out of fuel is bogus as it had enough fuel to fly for 7.5 to 8 hours @ 500+mph or 3750+ to 4000+ miles
The claim that the plane ran out of fuel because it flew much faster than first thought at the beginning is bogus since Malaysia and Inmarsat both knew from the start that the plane was covering about 485 miles per hour from the time it turned around and even Inmarsats 0:11 arc is based on that speed being consistent from start to finish
2]Proceeding SE from its 20:11 position the plane had enough fuel to reach western Australia [Exmouth S21.93E114.12] within 4 hours @ 470 mph which is only 1879 miles SE taking him through the search area. Total miles to Australia would have been 3580 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1879]
3]Proceeding ESE from its 20:11 position the pilot, who spent most of the last year 2013 practicing extreme landings, could ditch the plane in those disputed territorial waters between Indonesia’s territorial waters south of Bandung Indonesia S6.92E107.6 and Australia’s territorial waters just east of Christmas Island S10.46E105.58 knowing that neither country would likely look there in that grey area of disputed waters
The pilot could have reached those warm smoothe friendly deep waters just off Java, let’s say S10.46E107.6, where he would rendezvous with the person he reached or tried to reach by cellphone over Penang Island, at 0:11 after 1094 miles cruising in at 273.5 mph over the final 4 hours and then heading by boat to shore for morning My Thais before anyone in Malaysia even knew that the plane had been hijacked. Total mileage 2795 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]
The reason that the Malaysians and Aussies don’t want to search there is politics and economics — searching and/or finding the plane there would involve the Indonesians complicating jurisdictional matters and finding the plane’s black boxes too soon before insurance/lawsuits are settled would drive up the cost of those settlements.
<>Total mileage 2795 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]<>
Total mileage 2795 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1094]
Things that point to Captain Shah — the pilot:
Age 53 wanting to retire but flying for an airline that is in financial trouble, cutting legacy costs, trimming pilot pay while requiring that they work longer hours, falling value of MAS stock, retirement fund falling in value, rumors of bankruptcy, no other airline wanting to hire 53 year old.
Wanted a change in life. Has girlfriend or several he wants to spend time with but lives in a house with his wife who he has to take care of. Most of his retirement would have to go to provide for her. Did he ever take out insurance when he flew naming her as the beneficiary??? Apparently he didn’t — atleast he didn’t for the last flight. Nevertheless she will still be the beneficiary of a company insurance policy that MAS carries on all its pilots.
He may also have money stashed away in different accounts that no one even his wife knows about. His wife gets the house and insurance payouts and he gets his girlfriends and his cash accounts.
Have the police found the girlfriend[s] that Ibrahims bil implies that the pilot has??? The police shouldnt have to even look for them as they should have come forward by now if they have nothing and no one to hide.
The fact that this occurred just after Anwar Ibrahim’s trial reversal provides him cover — if push comes to shove his defenders can claim that he was suicidal or angry over the Anwar verdict on that day.
For a year he practiced extreme landings on his computer and early this year the computer broke down and he did not seem in any hurry to fix it. Why not??? Because he was now proficient at extreme landings as in water and did not need the computer anymore.
He may not have survived the ditching but that doesn’t mean he didn’t try.
There fixed it --
Inmarsat now saying hotspot is 28S 98.1E.
[Duncan Steel puts it at 36.02S 88.57E — big difference of 780 miles and yet neither of them are even closer]
But let’s look further:
From S4.0E93 @ 20:11 to S28E98.1 @ 24.11 is 1691 miles or
From N7.5E96 [point of estimated turn south @ 18:29] to S28E98.1 is 2455 miles which 5.7 hours @ 430mph
Could it have hit those earlier arcs at that autopilot speed of 430mph — I doubt it.
When added to the 881 miles up to that point the total is 2455 + 881 = 3336 miles.
They are saying the plane ran out of fuel after 3336 miles but it likely had fuel for 4000+ miles.
KLA N2.73E101.71 to Beijing N40.08S116.6 is 2742 miles plus 2 hours of contingency fuel @ 550mph is 1100 + 2742 = 3842 miles.
The plane had atleast another hour of fuel left if it went down where Inmarsat says it did.
By modelling a flight with a constant speed and a constant heading consistent with the plane being flown by autopilot the team found one flight path that lined up with all its data.
We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is, said Mr Ashton.
So they are assuming:
1]that there was no live pilot at the controls for the last 5.7 hours though there had to have been one before that.
2]that the plane flew a fixed ~430mph the last ~5.7 hours at a fixed altitude and in a fixed direction without change to a location where no survival was possible even though the family said the pilot was not suicidal and the tactics of the hijacking indicate a person who wants to get away with it ... alive not dead
3]that the plane that had been flying at 485mph for 1.8 hours and had enough fuel to fly at that speed for atleast another 6.2 hours now slows down to 430mph for the 5.7 hours — but still runs out of fuel after 7.5 hours???
4]that we can’t read the Inmarsat charts and data which show that the plane turned to the east about 1.7 hours after turning south — which means it wan’t on autopilot or if it had been was taken off and reprogrammed
5]that we can’t remember this:
6]and that that blue Inmarsat arc passes through the waters just south of Bandung West Java Indonesia.
S7.5E96 [point of likely turn south @ 18:29] to the DS location of 36.02S, 88.57E is:
Distance of 3042 miles
From 18:29 to 00:11 is 5.7 hours
Average speed of 533.68 mph.
Average speed of first 1.8 hours was about 485mph
After turning south — why the hurry?????
Wouldn’t he slow down and savour the ride at slower speed conserving fuel???
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