Agree. Big disconnect. Makes me wonder if the NFP will catch up. At the end of the day though, the recent data has been decidedly mixed. It continues to point to <2% GDP growth as the new normal.
ADP V NFP June-July-August; June and July are post revision:
ADP-NFP
198k 178k (87% of ADP)
198k 104k (52% of ADP)
176k 169k (97% of ADP)
ADP Average: 191k
NFP Average: 148k (78% of ADP)
Two month moving average
ADP 187k 137k (73% of ADP)