Instead of concentrating on a bunch of pointed statistical questions... I think it would be more effective to ask how long it takes for all of the grociery stores to run out of food after any kind of disaster. And how long does it take for all of the gas stations to run out of fuel? If the authorities are overwhelmed how long does it takes before thugs start victimizing everyone else?
If you haven’t got and fuel and food stored you will be hungry, cold and probably stranded. If you haven’t got firearms to protect yourself and your family you will either be relying on family and friends who do, or you will be at the mercy of thugs who are always ready to take advantage of the helpless.
When I was growing up all the boys took wood shop, metal shop, and auto shop. The girls took home economics and learned to cook and sew. We had a gun club and a shooting team. None of those courses are even offered where my brother’s kids are going to school. They are all learning to use computers and modern technology. I don’t know if there is a school in the country with a shooting team these days.
I grew up on acreage with farm animals and we had a big garden. Every summer I baled hay and worked in the fields. I learned how to use and fix a tractor. I didn’t appreciate this part of my “education” much then, but I wonder if this knowledge might still come in handy one day.
I don’t know the answers to many of the questions that started this thread, but I am sure that we are headed for trouble. Most teenagers now don’t know how to change a tire... when I was a young man I could rebuild an engine. A lot of our population is going to get a sink or swim kind of education when everything does go to hell... It is going to be very ugly.
The questions I have are: Do Americans still have the can-do kind of spirit that our forefathers had? Can we still figure out how to accomplish what we need to during a crisis? Or are we a nation of people who mostly have no clue how to survive in a bad situation? How many could live through a “Grapes of Wrath” type of situation? Not many I fear.
Normal demand on a just-in-time supply chain exhausts food shelves after 72 hours. Panic buying, like a hurricane warning, will denude the shelves in 12-36 hours.
And how long does it take for all of the gas stations to run out of fuel?
Same time frame as the food: 72 hours normal demand, 12-36 hrs. for panic buys.
If the authorities are overwhelmed how long does it takes before thugs start victimizing everyone else?
Your answer lies in the 1977 NYC blackout, the 2005 Katrina event, and the 2011 London riots. The thugs come boiling out of the ghettos within 2-3 hours.
I point folks to a book series I’ve run across - The World of the Chernyi - looks at what happens to folks after a wide area disaster. Food security is a major plot point.
When a hurricane is coming my way, grocery stores and gas stations are empty in two days and nothing comes back until power is restored and gas stations have gas - trucks aren't coming back with food, etc., until they can refuel here. The one item that takes the longest to come back after trucks come back, is - bread in grocery stores.