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My apologies to Nate Silver
Vanity | 11/07/12 | Raycpa

Posted on 11/07/2012 9:08:42 AM PST by Raycpa

My apology to Nate Silver. I doubted your statistics. I assumed you were a smug know-it-all type numbers guy. You were right and you had a right to be smug.


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I hate the taste of crow.
1 posted on 11/07/2012 9:08:44 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

I hear ya. ; )

I said all along that Nate Silver is the ONLY poll analyst worth listening to. Ignore EVERYONE else.


2 posted on 11/07/2012 9:11:32 AM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: Raycpa

Ditto. I thought he had to be full of sh*t, but damn, his accuracy was uncanny. He was dead-on.


3 posted on 11/07/2012 9:11:43 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: Raycpa

Instead, curse Barone.......


4 posted on 11/07/2012 9:15:43 AM PST by Red Badger (Lincoln freed the slaves. Obama just got them ALL back......................)
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To: ScottinVA

agreed.. he nailed it..

I am so surprised he was right. I expected more of our citizens.


5 posted on 11/07/2012 9:16:15 AM PST by Chuzzlewit
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To: RIghtwardHo
look, i read nate's stuff and i read everybody else's stuff, and i started predicting an electoral problem last year which would have both major candidates coming in with totals lower than their parties previous totals ~ and i don't recall nate saying that.

If he knew obama was losing 10 million votes from what he had in 2008 why didn't he speak up?

6 posted on 11/07/2012 9:18:27 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: Raycpa

RCP final poll average of each & every state also predicted each and every state correctly including Florida.

RCP ran a very simple algorithm - called average.

Nate Silver added a lot of weightings and secret sauce and what not.

Both of them ended up with the same result.


7 posted on 11/07/2012 9:19:43 AM PST by freeboy70
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To: Raycpa

Wow, I’m surprised to see so many naive people on Free republic of all places. Nate Silver did not predict the outcome, he used his position to influence it. It came out to be about the same, because that’s what they’ve been working towards this whole time, by discouraging Republicans, harassing them at the polls and rigging voting machines.


8 posted on 11/07/2012 9:21:59 AM PST by Kleon
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To: Raycpa
Yep...and we have to learn our lessons here on FR about polls.

In 2008...optimism among many (not me) reigned supreme. All we heard about was oversampling of dems...and anecdotal evidence about record turnout at their individual polling places. Republican turnout as described as mammoth.

Forward to 2012. SAME story...except this time I expected a landslide. All we heard about was "That poll is crap. D+8? YEAH RIGHT!!!" All we heard yesterday was story after story of record turnouts.

It all turned out to be crap. Any FReeper in ANY future elections who talks about a poll being garbage because of their D sample...I will simply remind them of yesterday.

9 posted on 11/07/2012 9:22:55 AM PST by NELSON111
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To: freeboy70
RCP final poll average of each & every state also predicted each and every state correctly including Florida.

RCP's average in Florida was Romney +1.5, two percentage points away from the final result.

10 posted on 11/07/2012 9:26:18 AM PST by Kleon
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To: Kleon
"he used his position to influence it."

he only had that position to begin with because of a previous track record of picking correctly. I'm not saying he is perfect. (he had a 74% chance Angle would unseat Ried) I'm saying he is honest with the numbers. He is a poker player that wants to know the odds, you go with the odds sometimes you lose. He is only as accurate as the polls that come into him, there is no magic, if he gets garbage in.. there is garbage out..
11 posted on 11/07/2012 9:29:38 AM PST by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: Raycpa

Two surprises for me that threw my analysis off.

1. I never guess D turnout would be almost as high this time as last time. WRONG.

2. I assumed there would be movement towards the challenger as the race ended. WRONG.

I’m still not exactly sure how Silver knew both of those things, especially the second one, or how Axelrod and Plouffe were so confident the election was totally in the bag.

I give them my grudging respect though. Those guys nailed it. I hate them all, but they nailed it.


12 posted on 11/07/2012 9:33:23 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Kleon

Shows that, if anything, polls are biased towards republicans. A GOP candidate needs to be up 2-3 points in order cover union and democarat turnout machine.


13 posted on 11/07/2012 9:34:02 AM PST by MrShoop
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Let’s not go overboard. Likely he just gets Obama’s internal numbers handed to him.


14 posted on 11/07/2012 9:43:22 AM PST by Crimson Elephant
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To: Kleon

You are right. But it’s still great. No fancy algorithm, no secret sauce (whatever that means). Nate got 1 state better than them. And even Nate gave Obama just 50.3% chance of winning Florida.


15 posted on 11/07/2012 9:44:06 AM PST by freeboy70
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To: NELSON111

I actually doubt all the polls because I understand a little bit about sampling because I use it for auditing. I’m trained to be skeptical of my own results. I also have a great deal of respect for the polls done and am very hesitant to challenge a poll because the internals seem wrong.

My issues with Nate’s analysis was twofold. I thought he was cherry picking which polls to use and was adding bias instead of decreasing it. Second, his translation of his analysis into a certainty factor to the nearest 10th decimal inferred an accuracy level that is not sustainable from the data.

But he was right.


16 posted on 11/07/2012 9:47:51 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

Let’s not go too far here. Silver may have his own model, own way of doing things, but when it comes down to it, all Silver did was create a weighted average of poll results. Silver was right, not because he’s a genius, but because the polls were right.


17 posted on 11/07/2012 10:03:19 AM PST by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: Conscience of a Conservative
Silver was right, not because he’s a genius, but because the polls were right.

Exactly. Nate Silver (and even more, Sam Wong) are just the messengers, the polls they were aggregating wrote the message.

My big take away from the Silver/Wong results over time: the race remained pretty much in the same please since last summer, with most actual eventual voters having made up their minds well in advance of Nov. 6th. and most of the dips and rises for either candidate reflected differences in survey response rates due to partisan enthusiasm.

The outcome, in light of the polling, makes a *lot* more sense if that was the case.

18 posted on 11/07/2012 10:16:41 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas (million)
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To: Raycpa

I too said to listen to Silver and was attacked for it. Do NOT question big data and predictive analytics. It is very powerful.


19 posted on 11/07/2012 10:33:03 AM PST by montag813
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

“My big take away from the Silver/Wong results over time: the race remained pretty much in the same please since last summer, with most actual eventual voters having made up their minds well in advance of Nov. 6th. and most of the dips and rises for either candidate reflected differences in survey response rates due to partisan enthusiasm.”

That does make sense. To his credit, actually, I believe Silver made the same point a while ago. He commented that some of the rise in Romney’s polls after the first debate could have come from Romney voters who, because of Romney’s strong performance, were more willing to talk to pollsters.

I’m not sure that all of the poll fluctuations are attributable to differing response rates, but it is a plausible hypothesis, especially given our “endless campaign” political culture. After 2 years of nonstop campaigning, and 24-hour cable coverage of that campaigning, it’s certainly plausible that most people made up their minds months ago.


20 posted on 11/07/2012 10:41:21 AM PST by Conscience of a Conservative
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