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Dem leaning polling turnout/party ID samples are zot bait
Vanity

Posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:44 AM PST by George N

At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.

That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.

I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.

This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.


TOPICS: Local News
KEYWORDS: polls
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To: George N

“...teeth mashing...”
I think you mean “teeth gnashing”...
Product of the govt school system.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 6:19:03 AM PST by matginzac
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To: Frapster
Romney is drawing 30,000 to rallies in Pennsylvania and Ohio, which is far more than Obama draws.

Pennsylvania and Ohio

22 posted on 11/05/2012 6:20:03 AM PST by Ray76
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To: George N

posting dem talking point BS is the reason FR is moving slow.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 6:20:10 AM PST by barmag25
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To: George N
Sounds to me the Dems are the ones fleeing in larger numbers to the indie ranks:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html

24 posted on 11/05/2012 6:20:10 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: George N

No, Gallup and Rasmussen are two pollsters who do extensive polling on party ID.

Most of the other polls do their polling and then weight the results based upon their assumptions as to the party ratio of those who will actually vote.

It is that latter group that is coming up with the big Democrat advantage—because they are putting it there.

Gallup, which does the biggest polling on party ID has reported a major swing to the GOP.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 6:21:00 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: LS

Folks I’m sure we can debate polls forever. The poster gave us some info. The fact is we can win this election in part because many pollsters have Romney leading or tied. But some on here attacking every negative poll are being pollyannas as well.


26 posted on 11/05/2012 6:21:24 AM PST by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: barmag25

I saw a Prius in Minneapolis yesterday with a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker. That was a good omen for what’s coming tomorrow, that and Ryan drawing an overflow crowd of 10,000 at the MSP airport yesterday.

Bye-bye Barry!


27 posted on 11/05/2012 6:21:55 AM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: George N
George:

I'll go with Michael Barone. He knows what he's talking about, and you don't. If the polls were right in an election like this we'd be talking about things like Carter's disastrous second term and President Kerry.

The only poll that doesn't care about party affiliation had Romney up by 5 or six before they suspended polling. We'll know for sure tomorrow. See ya in two years.

28 posted on 11/05/2012 6:22:18 AM PST by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: over3Owithabrain

my thoughts exactly.

The ONLY way Obama wins is if there is an over the top to to point of becoming obvious voter fraud.

Repubs have to always win by 5%. Figure 2-3% fraud then enough to not force a recount - of which the Communists will win (always) by finding votes in the trunk of a 51’ Ford located in some barn out in the country somewhere.


29 posted on 11/05/2012 6:22:26 AM PST by Hammerhead
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To: Shadow44

>> Jim Cramer’s seriously suggesting Obama will pick up Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.

Jim Cramer is one of my favorite prognosticators, because he is *reliably* wrong. You can literally take his predictions to the bank, as long as you invert ‘em first. :-)


30 posted on 11/05/2012 6:22:43 AM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: George N

Bunk.


31 posted on 11/05/2012 6:23:07 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (My faith and politics cannot be separated)
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To: Andrei Bulba
Well, it is a big deal. This is like "global warming." It's either real, or it's not. Either one, some, or most of the pollsters are right, or one, some, or most are wrong.

So much of our political lives right now are shaped by "gee, what do other people think?" that when Romney wins, it must totally discredit these organizations as being part of the D machine.

32 posted on 11/05/2012 6:24:07 AM PST by LS
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To: Admin Moderator; George N
two posts since 07 - and a hit and run thread with no replies

- zot this clown please

33 posted on 11/05/2012 6:24:45 AM PST by Revelation 911 ("The whole contrivance imploded last night ..in in one great rancid...public fart")
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To: Mase
George N likes to post once every five years.
34 posted on 11/05/2012 6:24:52 AM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: Mase
Gallup Polled 7,000 LV and found GOP plus 3.

How many did you poll?

35 posted on 11/05/2012 6:25:50 AM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: George N

I recall many news articles from just before the 2010 midterm elections, about how the number of registered Democrats was dwindling, some places by as much as 30%, when you factor that with the poll samplings for a 2008 Democrat turn out, and sprinkle in the evangelicals (24 Million) who stayed home in 2008, I have to think another tsunami is in the making.


36 posted on 11/05/2012 6:26:25 AM PST by swamprebel (a Constitution once changed from Freedom, can never be restored.)
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To: George N
When the person that posted something doesn't comment or respond to comments I dismiss them as “troll” no matter the subject.

So off you go now.

37 posted on 11/05/2012 6:26:48 AM PST by count-your-change (You don't have to be brilliant, not being stupid is enough.)
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To: George N
This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim.

I won't call you names for making this kind of ignorant statement.

Whatever you might think of them, Dick Morris and Michael Barone are NOT "laymen". They are professionals, and conducting, analyzing, and critiquing polling is what they do for a living.

So, how about you? What is YOUR professional background in statistics, polling, and political analysis?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like YOU are the layman in the room.

38 posted on 11/05/2012 6:26:48 AM PST by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: George N
"I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year."



Where have you been the last four years?

Most of us are voting against Obama not "for" a Republican.

The RNC is dead to most of us but the country is going to come alive tomorrow God willing.

It's no wonder the pols seeking Democrat and Republican affiliation show more D's than R's. Just wait and see where the Independants vote tomorrow.

For a little incite, Google Images the words; Chic-fil-A crowds.
39 posted on 11/05/2012 6:27:38 AM PST by John 3_19-21 (Desperation leads to curious events)
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To: George N
At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll

I'll just call you "roadkill" instead.

40 posted on 11/05/2012 6:28:26 AM PST by Admin Moderator
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