Nate Silver - The back tracking/CYA has begun!!!

Twitter ^ | Sean Davis

[Perdogg]

Sean Davis‏
@seanmdav

And the walkback continues. RT @fivethirtyeight: We have Obama as ~80% likely to win EC if pop. vote is a tie. 98% if O+1. 30% if R+1.

[MNJohnnie]

Because Rass was the most accurate in 2008. Yes, he was off but less off then every other pollster.

But I know don't bother the Freeper Eeyore choir with inconvenient facts

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

He's only infallible when he speaks ex cathreda on matters of faith and doctrine.

[Askwhy5times]

Rasmussen and Pew were tied for best in 2008. They were both dead on nationally. This year, Rasmussen is adjusting to a +3D turnout. This is contrary to his own polling that finds there are more Republicans than Democrats now. He is predicting Republicans will not turn out at the same rate as Democrats in 2012. I predict he is wrong. McCain was viewed as an old, cantankerous, Bush-cloned Washington insider. That was partly unfair, but that is how he was viewed. Obama was viewed as a genius rock-star preaching hope-n-change. This year is different. Obama has a record he must run on and Romney is a far better candidate than McCain.

[Askwhy5times]

Rasmussen was off nationally by only 0.5% in 2008. That’s pretty good.

[jimbo123]

IBTZ

[Eagle Forgotten]

Because Rass was the most accurate in 2008.

Has someone done a systematic comparison of all the major pollsters for 2008? I'd love to see a link.

[Askwhy5times]

Really nice comparison here. Scroll down the page for the pollster results. (Also has Intrade results) http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

[MNJohnnie]

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

2008 polling analysis

[CAconservitive]

Thank you, glad to see someone reads instead of just jumping in with an emotion based opinion. The changes Silver has made are by a tenth or hundredth of a percent - still with the same results.

[muwarriors92]

Rass was the most accurate in 2008. Gallup didn’t do very well.

Rass did very poorly in 2010.

That’s my concern.

We’re here saying Gallup is the cat’s meow, yet they got a “C” in 2008. Rass got a “C” in 2010 but an “A” in 2008. PPP and Quinipiac both got B+’s in 2010 but did poorly in 2008.

I don’t think anyone knows what is going to happen. Rasmussen has this election tied right now...I’m hoping Gallup is the one that is correct because basically they are saying the enthusiasm gap is going to win the day for Mitt.

[muwarriors92]

Maybe he pulls this out, but right now Rass and others are looking like they were wrong. And yet I’m the “freeper Eeyore” for simply calling it out and not drinking the Romney landslide stuff? Uhm, ok.