Romney Pulls Ahead

Dick Morris ^ | 9/25/20212 | Dick Morris

[Signalman]

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three!

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That’s the real state of play today.

[CaptainK]

Dick, reluctantly and with all sorts of hoping and imaging possible scenarios for a McCain win, correctly called a 7 point Obama win 2 weeks before the 2008 election.

[KC_Conspirator]

I think he called a Hillary win over Obama in the primaries too...but then again, that is without analysis like he provides here.

[cotton1706]

If he wants to make predictions, he should use accurate figures. The electoral college has changed. All the McCain states are now 191 electoral votes, and all the states with Romney in the lead brings him to 225, not 218. That leaves a shorter road to 270.

[scbison]

Actually he was right, Hillary had the most votes in Dem Primary.. It was only because of Super Delegates that Obama was nominee.

[RPTMS]

Also the Florida delegates, who would have voted for Hillary!, weren't allowed to vote at the convention, as I recall.

[FlipWilson]

Quote: “I think he called a Hillary win over Obama in the primaries too...but then again, that is without analysis like he provides here.”

In defense of Dick (and I am no defender of Dick) there seems to be two roles he plays. One roll is to sell books by sensationalizing. The other roll is his function as an experienced political operative. The unfortunate part for Dick is that he let the two mix together which ate into his credibility.

Here, he has provided a fairly credible analysis. I believe that this race is tied and that it could go either way.

[Repeal 16-17]

I think Dick is right. The polls are rigged to show the Liberal Messiah in the lead and even then it has to be by D + >10. On Election Night, the MSM will be in shock and the Liberals will be calling for revolution/secession.

[what's up]

I think he called a Hillary win over Obama in the primaries too

He also said Hillary would never win a Senate run in NY.

I don't listen to his opinions. But his numbers (if correct here) look promising.

Let's hope Obama doesn't pull out a successful October suprise. As it stands, indies will break for R/R.

[BuffaloJack]

I keep wondering what Obama will do between November 7th and January when Romney takes office.
I’ll bet the Celecrity in Chief will issue blanket presidential pardons to all the Gitmo boys and the Blind Sheik.