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This Graph Shows Why Obama Is Ahead in the Polls (Yep, pathetic over-sampling)
The Blaze ^ | 9-17-2012 | Mytheos Holt

Posted on 09/17/2012 9:08:52 AM PDT by Falcon28

Ever since the arguably skewed CNN poll of a few weeks back, conservative voters have been looking at the methodology of polling companies with an increasing amount of skepticism. The fact that most polls have used a model that tries to mimic the voter turnout in 2008, when Democrats beat Republican turnout by 7 points (as opposed to presidential elections like 2004, where turnout between the two parties was relatively even), has not improved this state of affairs.

And now, the suspicion of poll bias appears to have yet one more piece of evidence to support it. Via a tweet by anonymous poll analyst NumbersCruncher comes the following graph showing the degree of oversampling of Democrats employed by the most recent polls (all of which show Obama leading Romney):

Blogger keithbacker at Battleground Watch sums up the graph this way:

The real take-away which I have mentioned the times I blog national polls is that many of those national polls are HORRIBLE for Obama, namely the ABC/Washington Post and CBS/New York Times polls where you have large Democrat over-samplings but rather small leads for Obama. This means if Obama doesn’t meet or beat his stellar 2008 turnout advantage he’s in for a drubbing on election day.

These over-samplings serve a few purposes but mainly drive down enthusiasm for Republicans while assisting the Obama campaign with “bandwagon” supporters who simply like being on the winning team (they’re real and they count).

(Excerpt) Read more at theblaze.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: polls

1 posted on 09/17/2012 9:08:57 AM PDT by Falcon28
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To: Falcon28

Axelrod DEMANDED, using the threat of government prosecution, that Gallup return to a 2008 turnout model, to show Obama leading, rather than use the modified model they had come up with.

You’ll note that the +Dem outliers get lots of media, but are very innacurate when put against past reults, ESPECIALLY the Dem Corps and Ipsos polls


2 posted on 09/17/2012 9:11:33 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Longbow1969

You need to read this.


3 posted on 09/17/2012 9:14:14 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Falcon28

you know what’s going to happen. the polls will continue to indicate an obama win, and when the actual election is 10 points different from the polls, people will scream fraud, and then there will be unrest in the streets that will make what happened in libya seem tame.

we’re getting set up, in other words.


4 posted on 09/17/2012 9:16:53 AM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
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To: Falcon28

I think the oversampling is based on assuming the margin of vote fraud.

IOW ABC/wapo is assuming the oversample will be fraudulent votes and classes them as democrats.


5 posted on 09/17/2012 9:17:16 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Falcon28

But don’t you get it? They have to oversample to account for the dead and illegal vote.


6 posted on 09/17/2012 9:17:18 AM PDT by plain talk
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To: JohnBrowdie

Concur.


7 posted on 09/17/2012 9:26:05 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (ua)
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To: tcrlaf; All
Every “journalist” has taken a basic political science course in college.

The basic political science course shows research that a significant number of voters will vote for who they think will win, because they want to have voted for the winner.

Journalists know this, so they try to make the leftist out to be the winner to gain this advantage.

8 posted on 09/17/2012 9:28:16 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: Falcon28

Pew Research = Rasmussen = Tied for first in accuracy in previous presidential elections.

MSM/Gallup/Zogby polls are in the 15th to 25th placeholders for accuracy for a reason. Of course they cook the books, it is in their nature to do whatever it takes to win. When will people simply ignore them? How many years of doing this does it take before people just automatically tune them out?


9 posted on 09/17/2012 9:36:06 AM PDT by Gen-X-Dad
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To: Falcon28
I can just see the pollsters staring at the data. They can not believe their eyes that there actually are people in this world who are not in love with Obama.

"How can this be true? Surely they must be mistaken."

So, they sit around their data and work some magic hoping that by stirring the cauldron a few more times while chanting, "Yes, we can." Somehow THAT will do the trick.

It is probably worse for BO than even Rasmussen is willing to admit.

10 posted on 09/17/2012 9:42:20 AM PDT by Slyfox
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To: Falcon28

amazing


11 posted on 09/17/2012 9:47:12 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (If Obama's Reelected Imagine The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: marktwain
significant number of voters will vote for who they think will win

Good point; more proof of the ineptitude of the American people

12 posted on 09/17/2012 9:51:38 AM PDT by Theodore R. ( Who among us has not erred? Akin's the One!)
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To: Slyfox
It is probably worse for BO than even Rasmussen is willing to admit.

Rasmussen is currently under a lawsuit for showing Romney ahead once by Axelrod/Zipper/Holder.

13 posted on 09/17/2012 9:54:29 AM PDT by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: marktwain

They team up with the statistics grads and get a false positive result, then publish. No need for more testing.


14 posted on 09/17/2012 10:09:07 AM PDT by huldah1776
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To: BerryDingle

The lawsuit is actually against Gallup.


15 posted on 09/17/2012 10:37:54 AM PDT by the_boy_who_got_lost
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To: Falcon28

It’s absolutely amazing that ABC/WaPo can over sample Dems by 10% and still only give BO a 1 point advantage. That smells to high heaven right there.


16 posted on 09/17/2012 10:37:54 AM PDT by the_boy_who_got_lost
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I thought Ras was using a +2 D turnout model?

Obama is going to lose unless Romney makes a huge blunder.


17 posted on 09/17/2012 10:40:33 AM PDT by Leto
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To: Falcon28

Special sauce equals voter fraud. Dead people don’t answer the phone and illegals can’t speaka english.

Anyone who does not know this is happening, is dumb as the day is long. Rinos have abetted the operation, cozying up to and funding the special sauce factory - Acorn and LaRaza - with their credibility and taxpayer money.

If all else fails, in a close election, Dems can selectively recount until they win without Rino objection.

Rinos are socialists and they don’t mind being the minority in a democrat party power structure. Their desire in minority power is that their superior fascist schemes will be incorporated into demonrat party’s Marxist agenda and leglislation. For example - Romneycare.


18 posted on 09/17/2012 11:03:18 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: the_boy_who_got_lost
The lawsuit is actually against Gallup.

Thanks, I stand corrected. How could I get that mixed up?

19 posted on 09/17/2012 11:04:13 AM PDT by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: longtermmemmory

Fraud is a problem, but the reality is that it only impacts things about a point or so at most. You need to have a really close race to make a difference. That’s why turnout is so critical.


20 posted on 09/17/2012 11:32:00 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: marktwain

More importantly, people will DONATE based on percieved winner/loser. Especially if they think the campaigns are being run well or not.

Obama needs a massive influx of $$$ in the next couple weeks due to his lackluster Summer fundraising and early spending. And/or he needs to suppress Romneys intake.

The easiest way to do that is to have polls showing Romney losing and stories indicating Romneys campaign is being mismanaged.

Sound familiar?


21 posted on 09/17/2012 11:48:31 AM PDT by tanknetter
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