fyi

I wonder if ‘FOIA’ will be back to reveal the code to the encrypted file? Or release the rest of them?

Who knows.....

From the article:

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The Relevance of Yamal

The Yamal chronology is relevant both because, since its introduction in 2000, it has been used in virtually all of the supposedly “independent” IPCC multiproxy studies (see an October 2009 discussion here) and because it is particularly influential in contributing an HS-shape to the studies that do not use bristlecones.

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Editing NOTE:

HS-shape = Hhockey Stick Shape

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IPCC AR4 Box 6.4 showed the eight proxies which have been used the most repetitively (this wasn’t its intent.) Of these eight proxies, Briffa’s Yamal (labelled “NW Russia”) is shown with the biggest HS blade, larger even than Mann’s PC1 (labelled here as “W USA”). See here) and tag yamal.

Figure 1. Yamal Chronology in IPCC AR4 Box 6.4. Labelled as “NW Russia”

In previous posts, I’ve satirized the “addiction” of paleoclimatologists to bristlecones and Yamal as, respectively, heroin and cocaine for climatologists. (In pharmacological terms, upside-down Tiljander would be, I guess, LSD, as the psychedelic Mann et al 2008 is indifferent as to whether proxies are used upside-down or not (cue Jefferson Airplane‘s insightful critique of Mannian statistics.)

Although Yamal and Polar Urals had been long-standing topics at Climate Audit, they first attracted wide attention in late September 2009, when measurement data became available for the three “regional chronologies” of Briffa et al 2008 (Taimyr-Avam, Tornetrask-Finland and Yamal).

From the closing:

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PDATE: New visitors might need a primer for this story -

YAD06 – the Most Influential Tree in the World by Steve McIntyre
Sept. 30, 2009

http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/30/yamal-the-forest-and-the-trees/

Other techniques used....thrad from JoNova posted a few days ago:

Has CO2 warmed the planet at all in the last 50 years? It’s harder to tell than you think.

A Register article is referenced in the Climate Audit article linked above:

Treemometers: A new scientific scandal

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If a peer review fails in the woods...

By Andrew Orlowski • Get more from this author

Posted in Energy, 29th September 2009 16:03 GMT

A scientific scandal is casting a shadow over a number of recent peer-reviewed climate papers.

At least eight papers purporting to reconstruct the historical temperature record times may need to be revisited, with significant implications for contemporary climate studies, the basis of the IPCC's assessments. A number of these involve senior climatologists at the British climate research centre CRU at the University East Anglia. In every case, peer review failed to pick up the errors.

At issue is the use of tree rings as a temperature proxy, or dendrochronology. Using statistical techniques, researchers take the ring data to create a "reconstruction" of historical temperature anomalies. But trees are a highly controversial indicator of temperature, since the rings principally record Co2, and also record humidity, rainfall, nutrient intake and other local factors.

Picking a temperature signal out of all this noise is problematic, and a dendrochronology can differ significantly from instrumented data. In dendro jargon, this disparity is called "divergence". The process of creating a raw data set also involves a selective use of samples - a choice open to a scientist's biases.

Yet none of this has stopped paleoclimataologists from making bold claims using tree ring data.

In particular, since 2000, a large number of peer-reviewed climate papers have incorporated data from trees at the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia. This dataset gained favour, curiously superseding a newer and larger data set from nearby. The older Yamal trees indicated pronounced and dramatic uptick in temperatures.

How could this be? Scientists have ensured much of the measurement data used in the reconstructions remains a secret - failing to fulfill procedures to archive the raw data. Without the raw data, other scientists could not reproduce the results. The most prestigious peer reviewed journals, including Nature and Science, were reluctant to demand the data from contributors. Until now, that is.

At the insistence of editors of the Royal Society's Philosophical Transactions B the data has leaked into the open - and Yamal's mystery is no more.

From this we know that the Yamal data set uses just 12 trees from a larger set to produce its dramatic recent trend. Yet many more were cored, and a larger data set (of 34) from the vicinity shows no dramatic recent warming, and warmer temperatures in the middle ages.

In all there are 252 cores in the CRU Yamal data set, of which ten were alive 1990. All 12 cores selected show strong growth since the mid-19th century. The implication is clear: the dozen were cherry-picked.

(This oversimplifies the story somewhat: for more detail, read this fascinating narrative by blogger BishopHill here.)

Going to the Bishop Hill article see link at post #8.

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Sep 29, 2009

The Yamal implosion

There is a great deal of excitement among climate sceptics over Steve McIntyre's recent posting on Yamal. Several people have asked me to do a layman's guide to the story in the manner of Caspar and the Jesus paper. Here it is.

The story of Michael Mann's Hockey Stick reconstruction, its statistical bias and the influence of the bristlecone pines is well known. McIntyre's research into the other reconstructions has received less publicity, however. The story of the Yamal chronology may change that.

The bristlecone pines that created the shape of the Hockey Stick graph are used in nearly every millennial temperature reconstruction around today, but there are also a handful of other tree ring series that are nearly as common and just as influential on the results. Back at the start of McIntyre's research into the area of paleoclimate, one of the most significant of these was called Polar Urals, a chronology first published by Keith Briffa of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. At the time, it was used in pretty much every temperature reconstruction around. In his paper, Briffa made the startling claim that the coldest year of the millennium was AD 1032, a statement that, if true, would have completely overturned the idea of the Medieval Warm Period. It is not hard to see why paleoclimatologists found the series so alluring.

Keith BriffaSome of McIntyre's research into Polar Urals deserves a story in its own right, but it is one that will have to wait for another day. We can pick up the narrative again in 2005, when McIntyre discovered that an update to the Polar Urals series had been collected in 1999. Through a contact he was able to obtain a copy of the revised series. Remarkably, in the update the eleventh century appeared to be much warmer than in the original - in fact it was higher even than the twentieth century. This must have been a severe blow to paleoclimatologists, a supposition that is borne out by what happened next, or rather what didn't: the update to the Polar Urals was not published, it was not archived and it was almost never seen again.

With Polar Urals now unusable, paleclimatologists had a pressing need for a hockey stick shaped replacement and a solution appeared in the nick of time in the shape of a series from the nearby location of Yamal.

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McIntyre therefore prepared a revised dataset, replacing Briffa's selected 12 cores with the 34 from Khadyta River. The revised chronology was simply staggering. The sharp uptick in the series at the end of the twentieth century had vanished, leaving a twentieth century apparently without a significant trend. The blade of the Yamal hockey stick, used in so many of those temperature reconstructions that the IPCC said validated Michael Mann's work, was gone.

[Updated 30/9/09 to correct minor dating issue. Also removed the reference to KB's illness which is apparently genuine]

From WUWT:

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170 Responses to East Anglia Climatic Research Unit shown to be liars by results of latest FOIA ruling and investigation

ClimateGate III.

For once, I can enjoy watching a sequel!

Thanks for the reply...I was beginning to think I was talking to myself....

From the comments:

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Robert M says:

May 6, 2012 at 10:35 pm

I’ll have to digest what Steve has written, but if it makes Anthony release his hope that “The Team” is incompetent rather then criminal, it must be good!!!

More:

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Peter Kovachev says:

May 6, 2012 at 10:57 pm

I’ve said it before elsewhere and I’ll say it again: When a party produces errors consistently to its own advantage, the chances that they are true errors dimish with each case.

More:

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Peter Miller says:

May 7, 2012 at 12:06 am

I have just read Steve’s article twice. An excellent piece of research, no wonder UEA did not want to release any of this data.

The term “Liars” might be a little on the strong side, “purveyors of deceit, manipulation and misinformation” might be a little more appropriate.

It will be amusing to see what our regular alarmist contributors have to say about this.

I would like to see Steve get stuck into Crutem4 to see what he can uncover in the way of deceit, manipulation and misinformation.

More:

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Streetcred says:

May 7, 2012 at 12:07 am

Having read Steve McIntyre’s article there can be no denying that the University of Easy Access’ CRU is populated with pathological liars and that the Climategate ‘investigations’ by their pals were nothing more than a dishonest whitewash.

More:

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L Michael Hohmann says:

May 7, 2012 at 12:19 am

I am getting bored. The globe can be getting warmer or colder, but the idea that the human contribution from burning carbon fuels has anything to do with it is not only IMHO the biggest political and intellectual fraud ever – but so says the IPCC itself: http://cleanenergypundit.blogspot.com/2011/10/west-is-facing-new-severe-recession.html. The ongoing discussion pro and con is becoming akin to the scholastic argument as to how many angels can dance on the head of a needle. Which is, of course, exactly what is intended to achieve worldwide disorientation away from the actual IPCC aims of their monetary and energy policies – and bringing a whole, if not all, of science into disrepute. Even the UK Royal Society has become Lysenkoist.

Doing my favorite thing....pursuing links...from post just above:

THE WEST IS FACING A NEW SEVERE RECESSION....

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CLEAN ENERGY PUNDIT

CLEAN ENERGY is energy that is limitless in availability, is ubiquitous, is pollution free, is capable to provide source to use proximity, empowers rural populations, does not deplete food, forest or water resources, does not deplete biomass, and does all that for generations to come. The challenge is to propagate and implement CLEAN ENERGY production throughout 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th(Favelas) Worlds, employing all its technological, humanist and democratic dimensions.

Tuesday, 4 October 2011

THE WEST IS FACING A NEW SEVERE RECESSION....

… pronounced the IMF recently, leading to banner headlines in newspapers around the globe. Why the West only? Does this mean the IPCC is beginning to achieve its declared programme?

“Maurice Strong, first director of UNEP, said (Wood. 1990) and 1992 in Rio: ‘Isn’t the only hope for this planet the total collapse of industrial civilisation? Is it not our responsibility to ensure that this collapse happens?’ ” [1]

“Prof. Dr H. Stephen Schneider, lead author in Working Group II of the IPCC (said in 1989): ‘For these reasons we have to announce terrifying scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements with no mention of any doubts whatever which we might have. In order to attract attention, we need dramatic statements leaving no doubt about what is said. Every one of us researchers must decide how far he would want to be honest rather than effective.’ ” [1]

Research funds promptly flowed to those ‘researchers’ resulting in what must be the largest example of pure Lysenkoism ever, considering the combined multibillion-dollar research and public relations funds to achieve an unprecedented Gleichschaltung of this manufactured consensus in politics and the media. [2]

As Schopenhauer wrote: “There is no opinion, however absurd, which men will not readily embrace as soon as they can be brought to the conviction that it is generally adopted.” But the Brothers Grimm also wrote their “Die Sonne bringt es an den Tag” which idiomatically translates to “Truth will out”. [3] [4]

· To leave no doubt, in an interview published in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung on 14 November 2010, Otto Edenhofer, co-chair of IPCC Working Group III, said “The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War…. one must say clearly that de facto we redistribute the world's wealth by climate policy…. One has to rid oneself of the illusion that international climate politics have anything to do with environmental concerns.”

When further prompted by Bernhard Pötter, the interviewer: „So far, when discussing foreign aid, people usually equate it with charity“, Edenhofer replied: „That will change immediately as soon as global emission rights are distributed. ...“

Estimates of the carbon trading market were reported by Joanne Nova quoting Commissioner Bart Chilton, head of the energy and environmental markets advisory committee of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) with his prediction that “I can see carbon trading being a $2 trillion market,” which other quoted sources describe as “the largest commodity market in the world.” [2] ibid.

Edenhofer continued: “…When that happens on a per capita basis, then Africa is the big winner, and large sums will flow there. This has enormous consequences for foreign aid policy. And, of course, the question arises whether these countries would at all be capable of using so much money wisely.“ [5]

While not the only recipient region in the world where dangers might lurk, Africa is a whole continent teeming with countries and fiefdoms where gene, meme, and resource based reasons fuel internecine power struggles which copious large sums flowing there will intensify while the distribution wadis would ensure that these sums never actually reach those in need. cf. [9]

Niall Ferguson in his recent TED Talk outlined the requisite fundamentals that are needed for stable development [6], and for which he gives the historical background in his latest book [7].

The West stands, of course, not for a geographical entity but for a concept which in the Age of Reason should reside anywhere to get the world’s work done, which in the words of Buckminster Fuller is “…to render the total chemical and energy resources of the world, which are exclusively preoccupied in serving only 44% of humanity, adequate to the service of 100% of humanity at higher standards of living and total enjoyment than any man has yet experienced.” [8]

[1] Hartmut Bachmann: Die Lüge der Klimakatastrophe (the ‘Lie of the Climate Catastrophe’), Frieling, Berlin, 5th edition 2008 (p.28), my translation

[2] Joanne Nova: Climate Money – The Climate Industry: $79 billion so far – trillions to come,

SPPI Original Paper, 21 July 2009.

[3] Ivar Giaever, Physics Nobel Laureate, resigns from the American Physics Society

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/214181/20110915/ivar-giaever-global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-ipcc-hoax-dissent-nobel-prize-winner-physicist-re.htm

[4] Helmut Schmidt: The Responsibility of Research in the 21^st Century, the former German Chancellor’s address to the Max Planck Society on its Centenary Ceremony on 11 January 2011 Berlin:

http://www.mpg.de/1057970/research_responsibility

[5] http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/hintergrund/wissenschaft/klimapolitik_verteilt_das_weltvermoegen_neu_1.8373227.html my translation and emphasis, with thanks to John McLean for this link

[6] http://www.ted.com/talks/niall_ferguson_the_6_killer_apps_of_prosperity.html?utm_source=newsletter_weekly_2011-09-21&utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly&utm_medium=email

[7] Niall Ferguson: Civilisation The West and the Rest, Allen Lane, London 2011

[8] Richard Buckminster Fuller: Design Science Decade 1965-1975, proposed to the International Union of Architects, Paris 1963, resulting in The World Resources Inventory [six volumes], Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, USA , 1963-1967.

[9] “EU carbon trading rocked by mass killings” http://joannenova.com.au/

From JoNova website:

Key Links in the Global Warming Debate

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Key Links in the Global Warming Debate

The Science of CO2 and Temperature

Albedo

Over the whole surface of the Earth, about 30 percent of incoming solar energy is reflected back to space. [NASA]

Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Carbon Dioxide Fertilizes plants and increases plant growth Earths Biosphere is Booming. Source link.
Hundreds of papers show how plant life on Earth loves CO2.
Doubling CO2 may increase crop yields by 33%. Kimball.
Trees grow faster. Paper in Nature.
Farmers use CO2 to increase crop growth here.
Greening of Planet Earth Video.
If CO2 caused a little global warming it would be a good thing. Evidence suggests global warming is good for our health

The Yamal implosion

Key Links in the Global Warming Debate

Contents of Links

The Science of CO2 and Temperature

Albedo

Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Blogs -Most detailed

CO2

Greenhouse Gas Theory

Missing hot spot (due to lack of feedback – see also feedback)

Ice cores

Feedback Loops

Hockey Stick Graph

Miskolczi

Oceans (see also Water)

Oceans (Acidification)

Science (Method and philosophy)

Sea Ice

Solar-Magnetic Theory

Storms (Hurricanes and Cyclones)

Summary Documents

TemperatureGraphs (Junkscience)

Thermometers, Siting and Data

Venus

EPA regulations

The ‘consensus’

The IPCC

Energy

Monetary Theory

Spin doctored