Hey Hansen! Where’s the Beef !?

watts up with that? ^ | March 8, 2012 | Anthony Watts

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

In June 1986, Dr. James Hansen made a prediction to an AP newspaper reporter, which was carried in Oxnard, CA, of a 2 degree temperature rise by 2006. This was two years before, almost to the day before he and Senator Tim Wirth duped a bunch of Washington legislators with stagecraft on a hot June day by turning off the a/c in the hearing room while complaining about global warming and urging the need for “immediate action” (translation: cash).

Like Dr. Hansen’s 20 year sea level prediction, it hasn’t come true. In honor of the 80′s, when a popular TV commercial for a fast food restaurant had inspired a whole nation to say the catch phrase, I ask Dr. James Hansen, regarding your claims of global warming, “Where’s the Beef”?!</span> <p>Let’s have a look at <strong>Exhibit A</strong>: Hansens’ GISTEMP graph, distributed worldwide from the <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/21/nasa-giss-a-division-of-vandelay-industries/" title="NASA GISS, a division of Vandelay Industries?">GISS headquarters above Jerry Seinfeld’s favorite Monk’s Restaurant</a> in New York City. Annotations in blue mine.</p> <p><span id="more-58651"/></p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/hansen_1986-2006.png"><img alt="" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/hansen_1986-2006.png?w=640" title="Hansen_1986-2006" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-58656"/></a></p> <p>Source: <a target="_blank" href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/">http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/</a></p> <p><strong>Exhibit B: </strong>The GISS Data, available <a target="_blank" href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.txt">here</a>. Let’s do the math.</p> <pre>Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C) (Anomaly with Base: 1951-1980) ---------------------------------- Year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean ---------------------------------- <strong>1986</strong> <strong>0.13</strong> 0.18 1987 0.28 0.20 1988 0.33 0.26 1989 0.21 0.31 1990 0.36 0.28 1991 0.35 0.24 1992 0.13 0.24 1993 0.14 0.25 1994 0.24 0.24 1995 0.39 0.30 1996 0.30 0.39 1997 0.41 0.40 1998 0.58 0.40 1999 0.33 0.43 2000 0.35 0.46 2001 0.48 0.46 2002 0.56 0.49 2003 0.55 0.54 2004 0.48 0.55 2005 0.62 0.56 <strong>2006</strong> <strong>0.55</strong> 0.53</pre> <p>Finding the difference: 0.55C – 0.13C = <strong>0.42C</strong></p> <p>Predicted change 2.0C compared to Actual change 0.42C = Climate Fail</p> <p><strong>Exhibit C:</strong> Where’s the Beef?!</p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/hansen_1986-2006_beef.png"><img alt="" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/hansen_1986-2006_beef.png?w=640" title="Hansen_1986-2006_beef" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-58655"/></a></p> <p>Note: I realize that I could have placed the top prediction at 2.13C, but why pile on? ;-) What’s 0.13C between friends? Besides he said “nearly” and it is near well enough.</p> <p>Don’t believe me? Read for yourself. <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.real-science.com/goto/http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=llJeAAAAIBAJ&amp;sjid=AWENAAAAIBAJ&amp;pg=5501,1378938&amp;dq=james-hansen&amp;hl=en">The Press-Courier – Google News Archive Search</a></p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/james_hansen_1986-prediction.jpg"><img height="410" width="640" alt="" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/james_hansen_1986-prediction.jpg?w=640&amp;h=410" title="James_Hansen_1986 prediction" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-58654"/></a></p> <p>Big h/t to <a target="_blank" href="http://www.real-science.com/1986-hansen-predicted-degrees-warming-2006">Steve Goddard at Real-Science</a> for finding this one.</p> <p><strong>UPDATE:</strong> Some commenters suggested Hansen may have given the 2 degree number in Fahrenheit rather than Celsius. Another article on the same day suggests he did.</p> <p><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/hansen_miaminews_june11_1986.jpg"><img height="404" width="640" alt="" src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/hansen_miaminews_june11_1986.jpg?w=640&amp;h=404" title="Hansen_MiamiNews_june11_1986" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-58663"/></a></p> <p>Read article here: <a href="http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=71XFh8zZwT8C&amp;dat=19860611&amp;printsec=frontpage">http://news.google.com/newspapers</a></p> <p>So at 4F we have <strong>2.2 C </strong> If the reporter in the first story took the middle between 2-4F as 3F we have <strong>1.67C or “nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years” </strong>as the reporter from Oxnard states.<strong> </strong></p> <p>The 2010 Annual Mean Temperature anomaly from GISS is 0.63 C<strong><br/> </strong></p> <p>So, no matter how you look at it, Hansen’s 1986 prediction has not come true,</p> <p><div style="margin-bottom: 20px;"> <script type="text/javascript"> GA_googleFillSlot("wpcom_sharethrough_viplite"); </script><script src="http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?correlator=1934064975130388&amp;output=json_html&amp;callback=GA_googleSetAdContentsBySlotForSync&amp;impl=s&amp;client=ca-pub-3443918307802676&amp;slotname=wpcom_sharethrough_viplite&amp;page_slots=wpcom_sharethrough_viplite&amp;cookie=ID%3D078d6ab579fecccd%3AT%3D1309571070%3AS%3DALNI_Ma9oMkwCdbiSPIbc3MSv6XhpmTvOA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2012%2F03%2F08%2Fhey-hansen-wheres-the-beef%2F&amp;ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.freerepublic.com%2Ffocus%2Ff-chat%2F2857456%2Fposts&amp;lmt=1331435353&amp;dt=1331435354332&amp;cc=100&amp;biw=657&amp;bih=278&amp;adk=2899387771&amp;adx=40&amp;ady=4946&amp;ifi=1&amp;oid=3&amp;u_tz=-480&amp;u_his=1&amp;u_h=378&amp;u_w=672&amp;u_ah=365&amp;u_aw=672&amp;u_cd=24&amp;u_nplug=7&amp;u_nmime=80&amp;flash=10.3 d162&amp;gads=v2&amp;ga_vid=1045827632.1331435354&amp;ga_sid=1331435354&amp;ga_hid=216603690"/><div id="google_ads_div_wpcom_sharethrough_viplite_ad_container"><div style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 5px;"/> <div> <span style="text-align: left; letter-spacing: 1px; font: 8px/1em Verdana,sans-serif; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); text-transform: uppercase; display: block; padding: 1px 0px 5px 1px;">Advertisement</span> <!-- BEGIN IFRAME TAG - Wordpress-400x267 CTP Test 1 < - DO NOT MODIFY --> <iframe align="MIDDLE" height="267" frameborder="0" width="400" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" src="http://ads.shareth.ru/tt?id=627923"/>

[NittanyLion]

Of all Hansen’s spurious claims, his contention that the span id=”more-58651”/ makes me most angry.

[DBrow]

Help, Ernest!

[Baynative]

Can’t quarrel with that ...(what ever it was)

[who_would_fardels_bear]

Hansen? Ain't no beef there ...

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest.

[Free in Texas]

Wasn’t Hansen the one heralding the “coming ice age” in the mid seventies? The guy is a professional Chicken Little.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Hansen has a history but I am not sure that is in his history.

[Free in Texas]

I think it was here.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/09/19/nasa-scientists-predicted-new-ice-age-1971

But it was S.I.Risool who made the claim using Hansen's models. I stand corrected.