Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

21% OF DEMS HAVE LEFT PARTY (A Giant Upset Is In The Making)
Dick Morris ^ | 1/6/2012 | D

Posted on 01/06/2012 7:09:23 PM PST by Signalman

According to the latest Rasmussen Poll, 21% — more than one in five — Democrats have abandoned the Party since Obama’s election as president. While most have become Independents, identification with the Republican Party has also risen not only since 2008 but also even since the GOP’s 2010 victory.

Rasmussen, who tracks voters’ party identification (self-described) every month, shows that Democratic Party identification, has dropped by eight points (or 21%) since Obama’s election in November, 2008 while Republican Party identification has risen by three points over the same period. Despite speculation in the liberal media that the Republicans in Congress have mishandled their mandate since winning the House in 2010, the Republican edge over the Democratic Party has grown from 1.3% in November of 2010 to 2.7% in December of 2011.

Changes in party identification are the most fundamental – and important – measure of political opinion in the country. They are like tectonic plates that shift beneath the surface of the political earth, sending quakes through the system. A shift of such an order of magnitude will rank high on the political Richter scale in 2012.

So dramatic a shift, totaling eleven points since Obama’s election (Dems down by 8, Republicans up by 3) means that had Obama faced McCain in the current political environment, he would have won by five rather than losing by six.

But even that doesn’t tell the story. Surveys of Independents find that they have long since jumped from the Obama ship. His job approval among Independents consistently ranks in the low 30s. He cannot expect much relief from that corner.

All these stats point to a mammoth upset in the making in the 2012 election, sweeping Republicans into the White House and delivering control of the Senate by a good margin. Already, Republicans are likely to take over Democratic seats in Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They may lose in Massachusetts and will probably hold on to their seats in Arizona and Nevada despite the retirement of their incumbents there. That means a GOP dominated Senate by the margin 56-44.

If these data cause Republicans (hopefully wealthy ones) in Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Minnesota to consider entering U.S. Senate races against the Democratic incumbents in those states, it could cause the GOP to get sixty votes in the Senate. The party identification data indicates that this goal is distinctly within reach if we get good candidates in a few more states.

Don’t listen to the media induced pessimism. A gigantic upset is in the making!


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: dems; feminism; morris; oneparty; republicrats; socialism
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-75 next last

1 posted on 01/06/2012 7:09:27 PM PST by Signalman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: randita; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; GOPsterinMA

This is great news. These voters could decide the election this year.


2 posted on 01/06/2012 7:11:27 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman
That's okay, plenty of dead ones will have shown up to vote next November.

...and in alphabetical order.

3 posted on 01/06/2012 7:11:44 PM PST by paddles ("The more corrupt the state, the more it legislates." Tacitus)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

No way. 21%?

Not possible.


4 posted on 01/06/2012 7:12:39 PM PST by NVDave
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

A repeat of 1980 works for me.


5 posted on 01/06/2012 7:13:00 PM PST by Qwackertoo (Gingrich/West 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

GRRRRREAT news! The Democrat Crime Syndicate should be relegated to the ash heap of history. The RINOS can join them.

live - free - republic


6 posted on 01/06/2012 7:15:07 PM PST by PGalt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman
All these stats point to a mammoth upset in the making in the 2012 election, sweeping Republicans into the White House and delivering control of the Senate by a good margin. Already, Republicans are likely to take over Democratic seats in Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They may lose in Massachusetts and will probably hold on to their seats in Arizona and Nevada despite the retirement of their incumbents there. That means a GOP dominated Senate by the margin 56-44.

Don't forget Pennsylvania!!!

7 posted on 01/06/2012 7:15:10 PM PST by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qwackertoo
Don’t listen to the media induced pessimism. A gigantic upset is in the making!

Mark that down on your list of Things You Do Not Have To Tell A FReeper.
8 posted on 01/06/2012 7:16:33 PM PST by Mustang Driver
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

Thank you God!


9 posted on 01/06/2012 7:17:59 PM PST by Linda Frances
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

These people are polluting our primaries.

So no, not good.


10 posted on 01/06/2012 7:18:21 PM PST by TheZMan (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2794639/posts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

This is why Barry and Rimshot have sent their wives out to get the veterans to “join forces” with the communists while he and Rimbshot work on getting the illegal aliens the vote.


11 posted on 01/06/2012 7:18:27 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Stop BIG Government Greed!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

I don’t know why - they’ve gotten everything they could ever dream of, $787bn porkulus, socialized medicine, Dodd-Frank, no drilling for oil, more czars than ever before, plus they own Gummint Motors! What more could they want?


12 posted on 01/06/2012 7:19:26 PM PST by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman
I'll have to remember this when looking at the weightings in the upcoming MSM polls that show Obama regaining popularity.

-PJ

13 posted on 01/06/2012 7:20:53 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

They want all the marbles, the whole enchilada....


14 posted on 01/06/2012 7:21:03 PM PST by wally_bert (It's sheer elegance in its simplicity! - The Middleman)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

I guess these are mostly yellow dog Dimowits who were not Marxist to begin with.
Most of those, however, are dying off from old age.


15 posted on 01/06/2012 7:21:15 PM PST by AlexW
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NVDave
"...has dropped by eight points (or 21%)"

The DemoRATs represented about 39% of the voting electorate before the 'eight point' drop which was is 21% of the 39%. It now is speculated to be 31% of the voting electorate.

16 posted on 01/06/2012 7:21:34 PM PST by harpu ( "...it's better to be hated for who you are than loved for someone you're not!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

Hope and Change?? (Bunch of stupid libtards if you ask me)


17 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:28 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Signalman
The Toe Sucker...sometimes swerves into the truth......

Wonder if this is one of those times.....

Lot's of time left...for the GOP to shoot themselves in the foot.

18 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:47 PM PST by Osage Orange (HE HATE ME)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

Yep. Giant upset. Obama the magnificent will defeat Mitt with 21% fewer registered dems, adding to Obie’s list of miracles in anticipation of canonization. </sarc>


19 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:53 PM PST by newheart (When does policy become treason?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman
How do we know that this isn't really a stealth Democrat version of "Operation Chaos" for the upcoming Republican primaries?

-PJ

20 posted on 01/06/2012 7:22:58 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-75 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson