Posted on 02/11/2011 7:33:03 AM PST by SeekAndFind
A note from Goldman Sachs pees all over gold fever (via Prag Cap).
Although Goldman recently named a bullish target for gold, the research note says other investments will offer better returns in 2011:
"For our part, we expect a combination of stronger US growth, a strengthening dollar, temperate inflation and generally higher risk-asset prices to raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, particularly as real rates normalize higher. Even so, momentum is a powerful market force, and it’s unclear how long strong investor demand will persist. Given these competing tensions, gold does not screen as a compelling tactical opportunity in our framework.”
As for the theory that gold is your only protection against the end of the world, Goldman calls this a "religion." Actually, gold benefits from a strong investment market and suffers in a poor one.
[W]hile investors may trade gold as a dollar or inflation hedge, its performance in that capacity has been spotty historically. More specifically, changes in the dollar explain only 16% of the changes in gold, while shifts in real rates explain another 12% and CPI accounts for a mere 18% (Exhibit 42). Thus, these typically cited justifications for owning gold account for less than half its historical price movements! Furthermore, in 60% of the episodes when inflation surprised to the upside in the post-World War II period, gold has actually underperformed inflation. As a result, gold has not been a consistent inflation hedge, although it is purchased as one en masse.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I’m guessing that Goldman and Soros have a lot of cash on hand and want to buy a lot of gold, because they expect it to skyrocket when inflation really kicks in. Step One: drive down the price.
Goldman lies. How is the dollar getting stronger when other countries are abandoning it?
“Now is the perfect time to get into Obama Dollars - previously known as Treasuries. Yes, get rid of that useless yellow paperweight, and get this really cool piece of paper with engraving and numbers and stuff.”
Compared to paper money gold will retain its value in a crisis, and this is why many buy the shiny stuff and hide it somewhere.
I do not own much and not sure gold works as advertised, but one can see the gold bug's point. In the end IMHO, the government will not allow you to hold gold if/when the fiat currency collapses.
We might just find out, I hope not.
schu
“In the end IMHO, the government will not allow you to hold gold if/when the fiat currency collapses.”
Only if they know you have it.
After they make it illegal to own and use as currency....they'll damned well know you have it if you try to use it to transact. but that would be foolish.
That's why its only economic use is as a bulwark against fiat money collapse. It'll let you get "back in the game" after the dust settles and a new stable currency emerges.
“That’s why its only economic use is as a bulwark against fiat money collapse. It’ll let you get “back in the game” after the dust settles and a new stable currency emerges.”
Exactly. Hopefully the Marxist regime will collapse after they destroy the country. Then we might have a chance to rebuild.
Yes, this is the standard response, they will not know that you have 100 ozs of gold under your pillow.
What happens when you want to use it? Or trade it for some food or ammo? Or buy that nice house?
You may be right and again I hope will do not find out, but if the SHTF where gold becomes a true "currency" what makes you think the government won't move to make gold holders the worst kind of criminal? One can already see the ads on CNN urging the people to rat out and turn in those evil gold hoarders.
I sympathize as this entire circumstance is very unpleasant and nasty. Satan himself is at work.
schu
I’m sticking with junk silver coins, although I would have a bit of gold if I had more money to protect. Every executive at Goldman-Sachs has richly earned a brief second job as a rope stretcher. Why would anyone believe a word from them?
If someone comes for your gold, give them your lead first.
"we expect a combination of stronger US growth, a strengthening dollar, temperate inflation and generally higher risk-asset prices to raise the opportunity cost of holding gold... Given these competing tensions, gold does not screen as a compelling tactical opportunity in our framework."
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It must be remembered that America is not alone, an island.
There is a big world out there and the people who populate the world determine the price of gold in US$
Some of the world, perhaps much of the world, will revert to the gold standard in the not so distant future. America may not, at least for perhaps several years.
There is not faith in the US$ because there is not faith in America. Everyone knows Obama et al are damn fools. Best be careful with your wealth when damn fools are running America
The world left the gold standard and it was 6 years before Roosevelt relented and took America off as well. there will be a lag to revert as well
Looks like Goldman is in the market for some cheap gold. I’m sure they would still be happy to sell you some left over derivatives though.
+1
What happens when you want to use it? Or trade it for some food or ammo? Or buy that nice house?
It doesn't matter if they make laws against it. History demonstrates an underground, black market economy will take it's place.
Bartered items of value are not limited to gold and silver coinage, it is well beyond that. And you'll turn on the TV to check news, weather, traffic, commodities prices and exchange rates.
Simply put, those holding valued barter items in lieu of worthless currency, weather a crisis situation better than those who didn't.
Cheers,
OLA
The rally might be fading, but gold is indeed an inflation hedge. It’s a safe haven in turbulent economic times.
Why anyone trusts anything Gold Mansacks has to say anymore is beyond me.
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