where da hurricanes at???
Posted on 10/30/2009 4:54:40 AM PDT by SES1066
We expect that the next fifteen days will be characterized by average amounts (70-130 percent) of activity relative to climatology. These new 15-day forecasts have replaced the monthly forecasts that we have been issuing in recent years.
(Excerpt) Read more at hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu ...
That being said, last December their initial prediction for the listed Atlantic Basin Hurricane season (June-November 2009) was for 14 Named Storms (minimum 39 mph winds), 7 Hurricanes (73 mph) and 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+) with a 63% chance for one of these majors to make US landfall. Note: This was 6 months ahead and spoken as speculative being based on historical data.
This study has been revised downward in April, June and August and the August prediction was 10 Storms, 4 Hurricanes, 2 Majors and 46% chance of US Landfall. Now, as of September 28th, we have had 6 Storms, 2 Hurricanes (Bill & Fred) both of which having reached briefly major status. The worst damage in the US was from Tropical Storm Claudette which developed suddenly in Appalachicola Bay area of Florida and went NW into Georgia and Alabama as a rainmaker.
I point this out as an example of weather versus climate forecasting. We could still have a hurricane or even several between now and the end of the season as of November 30, but with the historic peak being past and the warm water cooling, everything seems to be still calm.
So, my question is this, if skilled experts with loads of historical data can make statistically significant errors in predicting a mere 6 months out about a geographically confined area, what does that say about the POSSIBILITY that equally skilled experts, predicting for a far longer time period (up to a 1000 years) and a far larger geographic area with much less accurate data ... Those who watched the Aires X Launch this past week also got a schooling in the variability of LOCAL weather as the Range Weather Officer went practically nuts trying to predict cloud drift over a very small area. She had AMPLE instruments and computing power and yet I will bet she was LIMP when they finally launched!
Weather and climate are DYNAMIC and historical records show changes but not their causes. The Hansens' and Gores' of the CCC (Climate Catastrophe Crowd) are riding a very lucrative horse that is galloping in their preferred political direction. Our government is attempting a major initiative (Carbon Tax and Trade / Waxman Markey) that stands a great chance to make for a most INTRUSIVE government and major business disruption. Be VERY WARY and watch Glenn Beck this afternoon on Fox when he talks to Lord Monckton about the science (or lack of) behind this concept!
Whether you think so or not, this is performing a great service. I hadn’t really kept track of the actual performance compared to the prediction but, intuitively, I knew that we had not seen anything approaching the dire predictions prior to the start of the season.
Dr. Gray does do a good service with his predictions, but he has been way off for the past 3 years that I can recall. This takes me back to my long held belief that predicting much of anything about hurricanes is pretty much a crap shoot until the hurricane is approximately 72 hours from making landfall. At that point, the predictions become more accurate. Anything beyond that has, historically, been pretty much a coin toss.
where da hurricanes at???
Now wait, if GWB has the power to create and direct hurricanes, then it is either related to the office of the President or it’s his personal power. If it is related to the office, then baraq now has that power. OH wait I just figured it out, it also took the evil power of the cheneymonster to direct the storm and biden can’t figure out what planet he is on, much less direct a storm. So I guess we are safe for now.
I equate climate changes to congressional activity. It takes years to tell if anything is changing, you mostly hear that things are going to happen but never actually see anything come of it; sometimes there appears to be a major shift in what is happening, but again, years pass with little noticed change; then you might get a 2 year period when verifiable activity actually occurs, then everyone thinks that this is the way its going to be, but before you know it, lots of predictions of things that will happen when nothing again ever comes of it.
That being said, the 15 day weather models are starting to show a system along the eastern seaboard 2 weeks from today. That’s the far end of current model forecastability (with even minimal confidence), but the Global Forecasting Systems (GFS) is putting a decent low pressure system off the GA/SC/NC coast around the 14-15th of November.
Algore is deeply saddened.
listen... warming, cooling, it was 50/50. so i took a shot!!!
Ohh WOE is me... whys everybody pickin on me???
You mean just because they can barely forecast local weather a few days ahead, why shouldn’t we blindly accept global climate predictions a decade into the future?
Personally, I’m about to just start blindly following anything the media and government tells me because it is so much easier than thinking for myself.
A few items,
See nationalforestlawblog.com under my name for a detailed explanation as to why there is a significant drop in hurricanes or tropical storms.
Sunspots, or the lack there of.
Sunspots have significantly declined in the last 3 cycles.
Sunspots have significantly declined from 110 average sunspot mean for a year to around 1.3 since 2000.
Then why did we get hit by so many Cat 4 and 5 storms during the last sunspot cycle?
Beginning in 1914 there was one storm. It came at the beginning of the 4th of 5 mild sunspot cycles. Since 1934 there were seven greater cycles. And they slowly warmed up the earth to raise the average winter temperatures in the US from 29 degrees in 1979 to 37.17 degrees around 2000. The continued to decline thru 2008 to 33.31. With this being an early winter we should drop to 31.
A few sunspots a month is not enough to keep the earth war.
Thus, a prediction of 10 was about right for the year. I think we should have 2 to 4 hurricanes or tropical storms next year.
Historically, this is possible.
We are in uncharted water.
We are one of the coldest sunspot minimums in 300 years.
Since the temperatures for 1896 to 1932 was 32.43 and the range was 5 to 8 hurricanes or tropical storms for the four sunspot cycles from 1889 to 1932.
New Orleans and the coastline
Unprepared!
As for New Orleans, the state of Louisiana really didn’t have a mind set, system or procedures to handle such a crisis.
The sheriff was down to a satellite phone and the state wanted him to fax in a request for support. Dud!
The part of the city that received the damage sits between a lake dam and a mile-wide river with levy.
Then along comes a hurricane.
The hurricane was one level above engineer planning.
The rescue busses were parked between the levy and the dam
The city is just a few feet above sea level.
So, we blame Bush.
I visited New Orleans and stopped at my brother’s apartment. We walked out the front door, up on top of the levy and below my feet, a barge on the Mighty Mississippi River.
He took me by his work and the neighborhoods. In New Orleans there is not much space between the top soil and the river.
Who do we blame?
State of Louisiana first.
Could blame New Orleans.
FEMA is always a preset position with post storm action. Why should they commit tons of supplies to a zone and have it lost in the storm?
Then there was all those FEMA RVs stored up the river. People still living in them since the summer of 2005.
Then there is the general lack of construction workers, repair crews. A little problem of being shot at.
Thousands of people abandoned their homes. They were replaced with rodents, pest, drugs and crime.
The fact the Active Army was called in shows that the police force was overwhelmed. A lot of police walked away from their duties. If the Airborne is on the streets, it is tough.
In Florida, When we have a Andrews type storm, we don’t blame the president. We chose to live here.
My parents lived through flood in Ohio. Rule of thumb passed on to me, don’t live behind a levy. Don’t live below a dam.
I always lived on the high ground... By choice.
Paul Pierett
The fact is that there are some who go way beyond mere decades of projection. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the current source of the base documentation and assumptions for the upcoming Copenhagen Conference in December (2009). In their 2007 "Fourth Assessment Report" they included a computer model projection of the effects of a quadruple increase in CO2 over the next 1,000 years upon the Greenland Ice Cap which causes it to lose 50% of its ice.
This is very characteristic of the Climate Catastrophe Crowd (CCC), they assume a maximum 'bad thing' as a steady state event and ignore that they are working in the most changeable / dynamic system of our natural world! I do not wear a white lab coat (ie. I am not a climatologist or atmospheric scientist) but I have seen far too few of these studies that include increased cloud formation from evaporation in warmer oceans. I don't know that it happens but it appears to me to be common sense physical science, right?
If there is increased cloud coverage, which is brilliant white at the top, would that lead to increased thermal reflection during the day? Is that offset by decreased radiant warming during the night? I DON'T KNOW but I want to know!
I am sorry, but I have to disagree with you on this statement. H.Andrew struck on 08/24/1992 in the full bore contest between Bush'41 and Clinton. Like Louisiana and Katrina, Florida had a partisan Democrat Governor, Lawton Chiles, who strongly supported Clinton. President Bush made an immediate trip after the end and another one a week later on September 1st.
The national 'unbiased' media played on the inefficiencies of FEMA and a 'slow' response from the rest of the federal government when there was, just like Katrina, muddled requests from the local and state agencies. The facts that the storm was almost unprecedented in the speed of its strengthening (24 hours from Cat2 to Cat5) and its shift from above Miami to below made no difference to the awful pictures of devastation and awe-struck reporters.
Bush'41 still won Florida in the election but the 'slow and inadequate response' to Andrew was an issue that was used freely by the Democrats and H. Ross Perot during the campaign.
The Earth is prone to balance itself out.
Naturally.
Without our help; despite our help.
I have no concern about what the temperatures or ocean levels will be 5, 10, 100 years from now but I am very concerned about what the environmental activists will force upon us one way or another.
If you blame the government, start a comparison of Louisiana and Florida. See who comes out on top...
See who the President picked to Run FEMA. He picked the Florida guy, not the Louisiana people.
Hillbillies live by a railroad track not on it.
If one parks him or herself in a beach house and get hit with a hurricane, too bad.
Bush is not to blame. This was the perfect storm and the perfect failure. Louisiana and the southcoast was unprepared to deal with any CAT 4 or 5 hurricane.
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